El Nino 2023-2024

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

0z GFS

 

This 0Z 12/24 GFS is almost definitely a major SSW (we'll find out by afternoon) and is the first run I can recall with an actual split of the SPV.

[stadiumwave]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This 0Z 12/24 GFS is almost definitely a major SSW (we'll find out by afternoon) and is the first run I can recall with an actual split of the SPV.

 

Several ensembles & the control have split for the last 3-4 runs. This is the first GFS operational run that I recall splitting.

[GaWx]

 The 3.4 OISST is not going in the right direction if you want a super Nino:

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The 3.4 OISST is not going in the right direction if you want a super Nino:

No, it’s not I guess for those who were predicting a super El Niño now I guess they will just have to wait for the next El Niño for those who were predicting a  strong El Niño Congratulations.

[snowman19]

42 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

No, it’s not I guess for those who were predicting a super El Niño now I guess they will just have to wait for the next El Niño for those who were predicting a  strong El Niño Congratulations.

Delete your account

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 3.4 OISST is not going in the right direction if you want a super Nino:

In other news, the SOI is -36 

And CRW, even the CDAS is warming: 

[thunderbolt]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Delete your account

Relax buddy I didn’t mention your name 

[thunderbolt]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

In other news, the SOI is -36 

And CRW, even the CDAS is warming: 

That won’t last long it will be below 2 in let’s say two weeks at max

[bluewave]

While El Niño Decembers are typically mild in the Upper Midwest, this one is taking it to a new level. Nearly 10° warmer than the previous warmest Christmas Eve in MSP during the 1957 El Niño. This is more typical of late October or early April.
 

 

[stadiumwave]

 

GEFS has a split 

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

GEFS has a split 

So does the 0Z GEPS (CDN ens):

[GaWx]

The 0Z EPS is also hinting at a split per this that just came out from BAMWx (left map is 0Z EPS hour 360 at 50 mb) meaning all three of the latest major ensemble means are leaning toward a split now:

 

[ORH_wxman]

That’s a very strong cross-guidance signal for a split for 10+ days out. Impressive to see the convergence on the different ensemble suites. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Delete your account

 

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

In other news, the SOI is -36 

And CRW, even the CDAS is warming: 

Two down, three to go?

[GaWx]

 Here is a screenshot of a list of major SSWs broken down by split vs displacement: noteworthy splits include 1/30/58 (El Nino), 1/8/68, 2/2/73 (El Nino), 1/9/77 (El Nino though not listed), 1/2/85, 12/8/87 (El Nino), 1/18/03 (El Nino), 2/9/10 (El Nino), and 1/2/19 (El Nino; too recent to be listed here but was a split). Note that there have been 7 split SSWs since 1958 during El Nino that were early enough to impact met. winter and all 7 were notable in terms of subsequent cold and/or historic E US winter storms:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Here is a list of major SSWs broken down by split vs displacement: noteworthy ones include 1/30/58 (El Nino), 1/8/68, 2/2/73 (El Nino), 1/2/85, 12/8/87 (El Nino), 1/18/03 (El Nino), 2/9/10 (El Nino), and 1/2/19 (El Nino; too recent to be listed here but was a split). Note that there have been 6 split SSWs since 1958 during El Nino that were early enough to impact met. winter and all 6 were notable in terms of subsequent cold and/or historic E US winter storms:

 

My 12/25 to Jan 8 window may work out, afterall. Now we need to watch exactly how it plays out because the devil is in the details with these things, but I have a feeling all hell will break loose for February. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

Relax buddy I didn’t mention your name 

If we ever 5 PPD weenies, then he would need a new outlet lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, jbenedet said:

If you’re looking for significant cold this is a West of Mississippi River story. Several pieces of guidance are pointing in this direction. At this point, I think the East-central US has some reason for excitement in January; I.e. big snow potential. Not seeing this elsewhere at the moment. This is a N to AN look for the east coast, AN favored in the northeast.

 

Why would you want the PV lobe over NE? I have no interest in January 2004.

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a very strong cross-guidance signal for a split for 10+ days out. Impressive to see the convergence on the different ensemble suites. 

And GFS/GEFS has a notable strong vortex bias, so extra encouraging to see it onboard as well. Assuming this holds and we get an official SSW around the 3rd, question becomes how fast it impacts the troposphere on our side of the planet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think we can put to bed the idea that Tonga was going to cause a ++AO...at least for those few who weren't convinced after last year.

[raindancewx]

I'll just leave this here.

Boston, <=1.0" Snow by Dec 31, El Nino
-------------------
1941-42 - 23.9 (Oct-May snow)
1953-54 - 23.6
1957-58 - 44.7
2006-07 - 17.1
2015-16 - 36.1
2018-19 - 27.4
--------------------
Mean: 28.8" (Oct-May Snow)

NYC (Central Park), <=1.0" Snow by Dec 31, El Nino
-------------------
1941-42 - 11.3 (Oct-May snow)
1965-66 - 21.4
1972-73 -  2.8 
1977-78 - 50.7
1986-87 - 23.1
1991-92 - 12.6
1994-95 - 11.8
1997-98 -  5.5
2006-07 - 12.4
2015-16 - 32.8
-------------------
Mean: 18.4" (Oct-May Snow)

Philly, <=1.0" Snow by Dec 31, El Nino
-------------------
1941-42 -  5.1 (Oct-May snow)
1958-59 -  5.1
1965-66 - 27.4
1972-73 -  0.0
1977-78 - 54.9 
1986-87 - 25.7
1991-92 -  4.7
1994-95 -  9.8
1997-98 -  0.8
2004-05 - 30.4
2006-07 - 13.4
2014-15 - 27.0
2015-16 - 27.5
2019-20 -  0.3
-------------------
Mean: 16.6" (Oct-May Snow)

ABQ, 0.0-2.0" Snow by Dec 31, El Nino (1.0" so far)
-------------------
1939-40 -  4.0 (Oct-May snow)
1963-64 - 10.0
1969-70 -  7.1
1977-78 - 11.5
1994-95 -  9.4
2002-03 -  2.8
2009-10 -  4.2
2014-15 - 15.2
------------------
Mean: 8.0" (Oct-May Snow)

No snow on the GFS or Euro for the Northeast cities through 12/31.

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we ever 5 PPD weenies, then he would need a new outlet lol

Lol

[GaWx]

11 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Several ensembles & the control have split for the last 3-4 runs. This is the first GFS operational run that I recall splitting.

And we can now add the 12Z GFS op to the split SSW list.

 Here’s the way I look at the SPV:

-Weak much better than strong

-SSW better than not

-Major SSW better than minor. E 1/3 of US affected most.

-Split major seems to be somewhat better than displacement major

-Split during El Niño may be best of all though displacement during Nino normally good enough

[griteater]

Bias corrected version of yesterday's Euro Weeklies.  77% chance of SSW per yesterday's run.  From Jan Dutton with World Climate Service (@jfd118)

 

 

[jbenedet]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why would you want the PV lobe over NE? I have no interest in January 2004.

def not.
 

Point is, balance of guidance has the core of the PV towards the mountain west. 

That latest run of the GEFS looks best though for our region. But some caution on that—it’s a bit misleading— you can still see height falls greatest over the SW on that run.

[bluewave]

The main difference these days between El Niños and La Ninas in December is the location of the +10 or greater departures. During El Niños the warmest departures are in the north with the +PNA. They shift to the south during the La Ninas with the -PNA. Getting 3 Decembers since 2015 with any section of the US going higher than +10 is pretty extreme. +10 or greater departure months used to be very rare. The +10 at some stations last January in the Northeast was a 4th month which was during a La Niña. A 5th month was the +10 in the Southeast in February 2018. January 2020 which was neutral came close in some locations.

 

 

 

[qg_omega]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why would you want the PV lobe over NE? I have no interest in January 2004.

Yes, would take

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Central-subsurface has moderated a lot in the last few weeks. 

https://ibb.co/hm3v3XS

The event has probably peaked, or is close to peaking.  

 

Still not really getting those deep negatives below the western subsurface, like you see in years where we transition from El Nino to La Nina. 

[GaWx]

 The 0Z 12/24/23 EPS holds onto the very good chance for a major SSW Jan 3-9. Also, I count ~12 extreme cases (sub -15) throughout the run:

[GaWx]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

This 0Z 12/24 GFS is almost definitely a major SSW (we'll find out by afternoon) and is the first run I can recall with an actual split of the SPV.

0Z 12/24 (orange) barely makes major SSW status with it a hair under 0 m/s at the end and still dropping. The 0Z CDN ens mean (blue) is at 2 days in a row at a major. But the 0Z GEFS mean never gets below +17.