Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If we are being picky, I would like it a shade east. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why? Still a hint of Maritime influence implied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 48 minutes ago, snowman19 said: New CPC ENSO weekly update: 1+2: +2.0C 3: +2.0C 3.4: +2.0C 4: +1.7Chttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Thus, El Niño is about as flat/basin wide as can be. Neither EP nor CP but a blend instead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 New SON ONI/RONI out. SON ONI(rounded to nearest tenth): 1.8C SON RONI: 1.34C 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 17 minutes ago, George BM said: New SON ONI/RONI out. SON ONI(rounded to nearest tenth): 1.8C (so maybe like 1.75-1.77?) SON RONI: 1.34C SON ONI (ERSST based) came in at +1.78. So, ONI-RONI gap dropped in SON but only slightly to 0.44 from 0.49 in ASO. Nov ERSST input to ONI was +2.02. Nov OISST was +1.90 due to different base climo because absolute SSTs came out the same (28.72). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 No surprises, but its clear the ONI will peak on the high end of my range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 RONI will probably peak at about 1.5 or 1.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 4, 2023 Author Share Posted December 4, 2023 Based on the latest data, ONI will probably peak right around 2.0 (super). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 In order to do this Oct (1.72), Nov (2.02) (probably revised up a bit as the other months have had revisions slightly warmer than initially posted), Dec would have to attain a monthly mean of 2-2.1 (closer to 2.1 for rounding purposes) for the anomalies. If this does not occur and hits at 1.9 instead we cap at a 1.9 trimonthly. The next potential would then be kicked to January and that is anybody's guess at this point because a lot will depend on how things hold up this month. Overall though the difference of a trimonthly at 1.8 (currently seen) to 2 is not really all that different. If we go by Eric Webb( or is it Webber) you need an ONI trimonthly of over 2C so essentially 2.1 would attain that Super call and in order to do that December would need to come in at nearly 2.4 with upticking Nov numbers to 2.1 so we could round it up to 2.1. https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html Im not so sure that happens especially with the chance of this WWB being a bit weaker than the last and not until the 15th -20th when it starts to make some impact on temps. Again if we end December at 2.1 we could attain the 2 mark and then it would be a try again in January but fools gold to know what will happen in January at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 This Nino is a top 4 warmest event in region 3.4 since 1950. It’s neck and neck with 82-83 right now with only 97-98 and 15-16 being stronger: More warming to come mid-late December as the MJO moves strongly in phase 7, triggering a very impressive WWB and +AAM spike: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 November QBO -15.94 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 @bluewave Are you also expecting the MJO wave to slow down dramatically, maybe stall when it interacts/constructively interferes with the El Nino standing wave? 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPASnow Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 40 minutes ago, snowman19 said: @bluewave Are you also expecting the MJO wave to slow down dramatically, maybe stall when it interacts/constructively interferes with the El Nino standing wave? 4 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 So what's next? 12/3 UKMO has 3.4 at 1.93. I'm incredulous at how far 1.2 has fallen. 12/3 UKMO reads 1.41. It was 3.64 on 8/28. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Dec 4th Euro Weeklies look similarly impressive with numerous EPS members (~45%, which is similar to prior two days) with major SSWs 12/28-1/18. A year ago (~12/31/22) the SPV was in stark contrast near a record high strength! Strongest SSWs: ~27% <-10 vs 25% prior run 8% <-20 vs 5% prior run 7% <-25 vs 3% prior run 5% <-30 vs 0% prior run 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 ENSO 1.2 down to .89 according to tidbits. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 19 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: ENSO 1.2 down to .89 according to tidbits. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 ENSO Longitude Index in 12th place since 1950 puts us squarely in Modoki territory. See https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL079203 for more details on the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 9 hours ago, snowman19 said: @bluewave Are you also expecting the MJO wave to slow down dramatically, maybe stall when it interacts/constructively interferes with the El Nino standing wave? One of the main issues with the longer range model forecasts for the MJO beyond 10 days is that the ensembles weaken the convective signal too much. This is also true with the RMM charts. So some of the posts on twitter stating that the MJO will quickly weaken or progress to 8-1-2 are basing that on an an inherent model bias. So it’s no surprise that the convection in the warmer 4-7 phases this week is verifying more intense in the warm phases than the runs back in late November were indicating. This is one of the reasons ensemble forecasts have been correcting warmer for December than they were indicating later in November. So even if the MJO can eventually get over into phase 8 that is also a warmer signal from December into January. New run Old run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: One of the main issues with the longer range model forecasts for the MJO beyond 10 days is that the ensembles weaken the convective signal too much. This is also true with the RMM charts. So some of the posts on twitter stating that the MJO will quickly weaken or progress to 8-1-2 are basing that on an an inherent model bias. So it’s no surprise that the convection in the warmer 4-7 phases this week is verifying more intense in the warm phases than the runs back in late November were indicating. This is one of the reasons ensemble forecasts have been correcting warmer for December than they were indicating later in November. So even if the MJO can eventually get over into phase 8-1-2, that is also a warmer signal from December into January. New run Old run If you watch these forecasts daily as I do, you will see that the long range forecasts for both positive AND negative anomalies are almost always weaker than reality i.e. typical ensemble forecasting. As proof, look at both the yellow and green areas on the 11/26 map and compare them. Otoh, this forecast period could be a cherry pick. The other problem is that I agree MJO forecasts aren't that great in general. Thus, I don't think you can say with certainty modeling is going to always be too weak with warm phases or too strong with cold ones. And if you can't say it with certainty, it offers no additional forecasting assistance and you're left guessing when it's too weak and when it's not. Regarding this month's Conus numbers, why don't we wait until the end of the month for actual numbers instead of assuming it ends up one way or the other? Clearly, it's looking on track for a typical December strong or super Niño. But since we have 25/30 of the month remaining, it probably makes better sense to wait before claiming that late November MJO forecasts for the early/mid month were flawed. Jmho 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Euro monthlies look great for alot of areas. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: If you watch these forecasts daily as I do, you will see that the long range forecasts for both positive AND negative anomalies are almost always weaker than reality i.e. typical ensemble forecasting. As proof, look at both the yellow and green areas on the 11/26 map and compare them. Otoh, this forecast period could be a cherry pick. The other problem is that I agree MJO forecasts aren't that great in general. Thus, I don't think you can say with certainty modeling is going to always be too weak with warm phases or too strong with cold ones. And if you can't say it with certainty, it offers no additional forecasting assistance and you're left guessing when it's too weak and when it's not. Regarding this month's Conus numbers, why don't we wait until the end of the month for actual numbers instead of assuming it ends up one way or the other? Clearly, it's looking on track for a typical December strong or super Niño. But since we have 25/30 of the month remaining, it probably makes better sense to wait before claiming that late November MJO forecasts for the early/mid month were flawed. Jmho Maritime Continent to Central Pacific MJO phases with a borderline super El Niño is a very warm signal for the CONUS. So it’s not a surprise that the models are correcting warmer. This pattern has supercharged the Pacific Jet which is flooding North America with mild Pacific air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Maritime Continent to Central Pacific MJO phases with a borderline super El Niño is a very warm signal for the CONUS. So it’s not a surprise that the models are correcting warmer. This pattern has supercharged the Pacific Jet which is flooding North America with mild Pacific air. Yup, no slowing down this pac jet. Going to be several areas way below avg in snowfall going into January 2024 3 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: Maritime Continent to Central Pacific MJO phases with a borderline super El Niño is a very warm signal for the CONUS. So it’s not a surprise that the models are correcting warmer. This pattern has supercharged the Pacific Jet which is flooding North America with mild Pacific air. Thanks for not responding to any of my points. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 19 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Thanks for not responding to any of my points. None of the points that you made had anything to do with my original post. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 1 minute ago, bluewave said: None of the points that you made had anything to do with my original post. I expected something better than your typical response. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 6 hours ago, weathafella said: So what's next? 12/3 UKMO has 3.4 at 1.93. I'm incredulous at how far 1.2 has fallen. 12/3 UKMO reads 1.41. It was 3.64 on 8/28. I am not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I expected something better than your typical response. You can go back in time in this thread and others and find lengthy papers and studies refuting all the points you brought up. So it’s not my job to to the homework for you. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 42 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup, no slowing down this pac jet. Going to be several areas way below avg in snowfall going into January 2024 How will Central Park ever make up that 7" deficit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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