Great Snow 1717 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think everyone understands that an identical pattern wouldn't be as cold....however, an identical pattern also would probably produce larger storms with more moisture. ....I disagree. I think some people would expect the results to be very similar....BTW if you know anyone looking to have their driveway plowed or business parking lot plowed this winter in Methuen advise them to find someone as soon as possible. Several Methuen area landscaping companies have decided to not offer snowplowing this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 More warming to come and this El Niño has very clearly not peaked yet. Again, the peak probably doesn’t happen until late December or January. I don’t think we are done with the WWBs yet, the next one/ones are not going to be as strong as this one is though. I would also not discount region 1+2 warming again once this KW surfaces off the SA coast. The warm pool is now completely east of the dateline. Per Paul Roundy: “The extent of warm water higher than 31C is higher east of the dateline today than in any historic event. In part, it's because this El Niño was associated with weaker initial WWBs (which cool the ocean locally due to evaporation). That meant that this WWB had more warm water to work with.” Big subsurface warming/DWKW: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: More warming to come and this El Niño has very clearly not peaked yet. Again, the peak probably doesn’t happen until late December or January. I don’t think we are done with the WWBs yet, the next one/ones are not going to be as strong as this one is though. I would also not discount region 1+2 warming again once this KW surfaces off the SA coast. The warm pool is now completely east of the dateline. Per Paul Roundy: “The extent of warm water higher than 31C is higher east of the dateline today than in any historic event. In part, it's because this El Niño was associated with weaker initial WWBs (which cool the ocean locally due to evaporation). That meant that this WWB had more warm water to work with.” Big subsurface warming: No one should be surprised ..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 25 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: ....I disagree. I think some people would expect the results to be very similar....BTW if you know anyone looking to have their driveway plowed or business parking lot plowed this winter in Methuen advise them to find someone as soon as possible. Several Methuen area landscaping companies have decided to not offer snowplowing this winter. Hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: No one should be surprised ..... I agree since the model consensus has been for a OND ONI peak since like last spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 53 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: ..and nearly 60 years ago....a lot has changed since then... Really? Damn I’ve been sleeping since my college days… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Really? Damn I’ve been sleeping since my college days… .....I'm glad my post has awaken you!...since it is the holiday season I am waiving the fee!!... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree since the model consensus has been for a OND ONI peak since like last spring. It’s possible this one is a NDJ ONI peak like a few models have been suggesting. We’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, to be clear, I am not arguing against a warmer than average winter....that isn't what I was referring to with the persistence. Again, I do not debate that the climate is warming. What is dubious to me is all of the inferences with respect to the global patterns and the idea that they are going to become fixed in place. But it is feasible that they will...my contention is that in the past they have not, so we need more time in order to definitively conclude that they will. It's actually tiresome that this has to literally be stated as a preface anytime someone challenges one of the more off the wall predictions, statements, or even interpretations regarding climate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 31 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s possible this one is a NDJ ONI peak like a few models have been suggesting. We’ll see Possible, but I doubt it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPASnow Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 Steve D Posted 1 hour ago Steve D In the Summer, I suggested that this El Nino would shift from a strong east-based orientation in the sea surface temperature anomalies to a basin-wide orientation. That forecast idea has officially been verified and will continue to shift, given the trends of the SSTA over the past two months. The sub-surface anomalies support a continued gradual cooling in NINO 1+2 and warming in NINO 3.4. Considering the sub-surface trends and evolution of this El Nino state, I expect NINO 4 to peak at around 1.8°C, NINO 3.4 to peak at 2.1°C, NINO 3 at 2.2°C, and NINO 1+2 to cool to 1.8°C through December and January. Meanwhile, there have been no changes to the atmospheric response, with the SOI continuing to remain in a weak to moderate El Nino response and the location of the strongest tropical forcing and convective development around the dateline. As a result, I expect we’ll continue to have this El Nino produce an MJO signal more frequently in phases 8,1 and 2 than in any other phases over the next three months. So far, the forecast for this El Nino has evolved exactly as I had expected 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 20 minutes ago, NEPASnow said: Steve D Posted 1 hour ago Steve D In the Summer, I suggested that this El Nino would shift from a strong east-based orientation in the sea surface temperature anomalies to a basin-wide orientation. That forecast idea has officially been verified and will continue to shift, given the trends of the SSTA over the past two months. The sub-surface anomalies support a continued gradual cooling in NINO 1+2 and warming in NINO 3.4. Considering the sub-surface trends and evolution of this El Nino state, I expect NINO 4 to peak at around 1.8°C, NINO 3.4 to peak at 2.1°C, NINO 3 at 2.2°C, and NINO 1+2 to cool to 1.8°C through December and January. Meanwhile, there have been no changes to the atmospheric response, with the SOI continuing to remain in a weak to moderate El Nino response and the location of the strongest tropical forcing and convective development around the dateline. As a result, I expect we’ll continue to have this El Nino produce an MJO signal more frequently in phases 8,1 and 2 than in any other phases over the next three months. So far, the forecast for this El Nino has evolved exactly as I had expected Steve D lol Just as bad as Margavage, Pann, Bastardi and Margusity. While it’s unlikely that 1+2 goes back up to +3C, when the KW surfaces in a couple of weeks, it very likely warms up again. And this Nino is anything but weak, besides the SSTs and subsurface, WWB, DWKW, the warm pool is now east of the dateline, something that only happens in the strongest events. This one is strong at the very least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Steve D lol Just as bad as Margavage, Pann, Bastardi and Margusity. While it’s unlikely that 1+2 goes back up to +3C, when the KW surfaces in a couple of weeks, it very likely warms up again. And this Nino is anything but weak, besides the SSTs and subsurface, WWB, DWKW, the warm pool is now east of the dateline, something that only happens in the strongest events. This one is strong at the very least Just east of the dateline is not where the strongest el Nino events focus. BS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just east of the dateline is not where the strongest el Nino events focus. BS. that's literally where the Modoki events focus their forcing too. lmao 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 Just east of the dateline is not where the strongest el Nino events focus. BS.I’m not talking about OLR/-VP convective forcing. I’m speaking of shear strength in the oceanic sense, not atmospheric. To even argue to the contrary is asinine 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 WCS daily updates: -Latest Nino 3.4 is still warming steadily and rose from +2.07 to +2.12 -The PDO rose sharply from ~-1.19 to -1.01. That’s the largest daily rise since ~10/17. Cyclonicwx: -1+2: +1.84 -3: +2.30 -3.4 rose from +2.05 to +2.13, another sharp rise! It’s now about same as the +2.12 of WCS. -4: +1.47 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 21, 2023 Author Share Posted November 21, 2023 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Steve D lol Just as bad as Margavage, Pann, Bastardi and Margusity. While it’s unlikely that 1+2 goes back up to +3C, when the KW surfaces in a couple of weeks, it very likely warms up again. And this Nino is anything but weak, besides the SSTs and subsurface, WWB, DWKW, the warm pool is now east of the dateline, something that only happens in the strongest events. This one is strong at the very least All 4 Enso regions are above 1.5, and 2 of them are above 2.0. That should not be overlooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 57 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I’m not talking about OLR/-VP convective forcing. I’m speaking of shear strength in the oceanic sense, not atmospheric. To even argue to the contrary is asinine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 59 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I’m not talking about OLR/-VP convective forcing. I’m speaking of shear strength in the oceanic sense, not atmospheric. To even argue to the contrary is asinine Well, this is me being asinine: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'm convinced Webber and those folks will never, ever admit they were wrong....DC could end up with 60" and they will argue that it was a classic canonical el Nino because the season was +1 and most of the snow fell in 1 or two events. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 1 hour ago, George001 said: All 4 Enso regions are above 1.5, and 2 of them are above 2.0. That should not be overlooked. Its not, which is part of the reason why no one is calling for a cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 Just east of the dateline is textbook Modoki....you don't want it west of the dateline because then you get more Maritime influence....look at 2006: This in conjunction with descending solar is why that season sucked bum-bum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just east of the dateline is not where the strongest el Nino events focus. BS. You are correct if you are referencing the 72-73 to 97-98 era. But since 15-16, we have seen the first +30C warm pools east of the Dateline. So this is a new feature with the way El Niño’s have been forming. Also why we don’t get true east based El Niños anymore. But the warm pool near the Maritime Continent is more expansive this year than 15-16. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 lmao Fisher was talking about how it would be 60F 7 days out while Boston was seeing a historic blizzard in Jan 2022. dude is something else 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: lmao Fisher was talking about how it would be 60F 7 days out while Boston was seeing a historic blizzard in Jan 2022. dude is something else He is a known warminster (sp?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: You are correct if you are referencing the 72-73 to 97-98 era. But since 15-16, we have seen the first +30C warm pools east of the Dateline. So this is a new feature with the way El Niño’s have been forming. Also why we don’t get true east based El Niños anymore. But the warm pool near the Maritime Continent is more expansive this year than 15-16. I agree.....2015 is a decent EMI match, but as you implied, the SST dipole and pressure dipoli were much more pronounced in in 2015....WWBs were much more prevalent, as well...which is which is reflected by the MEI and RONI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: lmao Fisher was talking about how it would be 60F 7 days out while Boston was seeing a historic blizzard in Jan 2022. dude is something else Great met, but loves him some warm. His outlook was reasonable, though....pretty similar to mine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPASnow Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 So would this current el nino SSTA, if they were to stay similar, cause this type of jet stream pattern for winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, NEPASnow said: So would this current el nino SSTA, if they were to stay similar, cause this type of jet stream pattern for winter? if the mean forcing remains in these areas through the winter, which is certainly possible, I would argue yes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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