El Nino 2023-2024

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

That’s probably why studies I’ve seen often refer to the average of the preceding OND to gauge the strength of the IOD. Thus, there’s almost no doubt that this IOD will end up as one of the strongest on record/very strong relative to other years.

[snowman19]

This WWB looks to be the most impressive we’ve seen all year in terms of it staying strong and continuing east of the dateline.  So, I certainly think this will lead to some warming over the next month

Agreed. This event has obviously NOT peaked and it’s going to strengthen further

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The IOD peaked back in October.
 
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml#bookmark=nino3.4

 
 

 

 

October was an impressive peak for the IOD with the huge reduction in cloud cover over the Eastern IO.

 

 

[snowman19]

The WWB causing an uptick in +AAM and the lack of any coherent MJO signal is indicative of a strong and strengthening El Nino standing wave/low frequency forcing taking over the tropics:
 

[GaWx]

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

Latest WCS updates as of 11/12/23:

-Nino 3.4 cooled back from +1.87 to +1.82

-PDO had the biggest drop for a single day since mid Sept from -1.01 to (per Griteater’s post) -1.18

Latest WCS as of 11/13/23 about steady vs yesterday for both Nino 3.4 (at +1.85) and PDO (at -1.19).

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

This WWB looks to be the most impressive we’ve seen all year in terms of it staying strong and continuing east of the dateline.  So, I certainly think this will lead to some warming over the next month

More of a moderate WWB compared to some of the stronger November WWBs in years past.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

When we get the peak trimonthly average, we will likely see SON or maybe OND at 1.6. 

I’m calling this a moderate nino considering other competing factors. 

Same.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The IOD peaked back in October.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml#bookmark=nino3.4

 

Is a +IOD or -IOD favorable for east coast snow?

[griteater]

3 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Happen to have the iod by chance?

IOD is at +1.54 here as of Nov13....chart with comparison to 1994 & 1997

[griteater]

48 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Is a +IOD or -IOD favorable for east coast snow?

Offered a few thoughts on this here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58841-el-nino-2023-2024/?do=findComment&comment=7052627

 

[Terpeast]

53 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Is a +IOD or -IOD favorable for east coast snow?

 

Following is +0.5 IOD on a 4 month lag before DJF for all years since 1960 regardless of ENSO. 

 

Same, but only for El Nino winters (only eliminated a couple of enso neutral years):

 

BTW, this uses the DMI index. Not sure if that makes a difference.

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, griteater said:

Offered a few thoughts on this here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58841-el-nino-2023-2024/?do=findComment&comment=7052627

 

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Following is +0.5 IOD on a 4 month lag before DJF for all years since 1960 regardless of ENSO. 

Same, but only for El Nino winters (only eliminated a couple of enso neutral years):

BTW, this uses the DMI index. Not sure if that makes a difference.

Thank you both. Very insightful analysis and visualizations.

[MJO812]

Nino is rapidly  weakening 

[GaWx]

 Here’s something for which I can’t recall the last time it occurred: every one of the 5 weeks of today’s Euro Weeklies has cooled in the E US vs yesterday’s run and is easily the coolest overall run in the E US in a very long time. Instead of warmth dominating the run like for many recent runs, near normal dominates in today’s. For example, look at how much 11/20-7  cooled:

Today’s 11/20-7:

 

Yesterday’s 11/20-7:

[stadiumwave]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Here’s something for which I can’t recall the last time it occurred: every one of the 5 weeks of today’s Euro Weeklies has cooled in the E US vs yesterday’s run and is easily the coolest overall run in the E US in a very long time. Instead of warmth dominating the run like for many recent runs, near normal dominates in today’s. For example, look at how much 11/20-7  cooled:

Today’s 11/20-7:

 

Yesterday’s 11/20-7:

 

It's amazing how much the CFS Weeklies have changed for DEC in the last 2 days. Dates are on top of images:

[raindancewx]

The anchovy supply collapse this year is another feather in the cap of the Peruvian fishermen from day of yore.

Inflation/Deflation in certain types of foods directly impacted by ENSO is another metric you can use if Nino 3.4 SSTs, MEI, ONI, SOI, RONI, PDO, NOI, forcing, MJO precipitation patterns and the PNA indicators aren't enough.

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2023-11-06-el-nino-anchovy-shortage-peru

Niño was born in the Pacific Ocean off Peru. Hundreds of years ago, fishermen in the region noticed that the water warmed every few years in their winter, and their catch declined. They called it “El Niño de Navidad,” or "The Christmas Child."

Peru has the largest anchovy fishery in the world. “Most of the anchovies in the world in terms of tonnage come from Peru,” John Phillips, procurement director at Roland Foods, told us. The country produced about 4.6 million tons of the tiny savory fish in 2022, according to industry reports.

Anchovies feed on plankton forced to the surface by upwelling, which happens when winds push water across the ocean surface and colder water rises up from beneath. El Niño disrupts that process.

[so_whats_happening]

If we didn't already know here is another look at it. WWB activity is not up to par for this year compared to many years. You can see a spike in 1982/97/2015. 1972 was a nice spike but lacked intensity and we are under everyone of them thus far even 2002 and 2009, 1994 was also higher. When we go into a more concentrated timeframe and space the lines become more definitive and show how lackluster these have been thus far.

[bluewave]

On 11/13/2023 at 1:21 PM, WxUSAF said:

I’m mostly a novice at this, but seems the -PDO numerical index is mostly driven by the very warm water off Japan, right? The SST map on our side  of the dateline looks weakly +PDO to me with slight AN SSTs along the west coast and in the GoA. 

Ultimately, it’s what the atmospheric component of the PDO is doing at any given time which is more important. By atmospheric component I mean the 500 mb pattern. Last winter the oceanic -PDO was strongly aligned with the 500 mb atmospheric component. So the end result was a La Niña on steroids pattern.

For some reason, the 500 mb pattern in early 20-21 and Jan 22 was more +PDO +PNA than the oceanic strong -PDO was indicating. So the alignment issue is very important for our sensible weather.

Even though the oceanic PDO signature is currently negative, the recent forecast for late November is classic +PDO with the -EPO +PNA. We want to see this more +PDO atmospheric pattern continue. Unfortunately, forecasting when these deviations from the oceanic index will occur usually comes down to the shorter range models. 
 

[griteater]

Nino 3.4 on UKMO OSTIA for 11/14 is +1.57.  Nov 1-14 average is +1.65

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If the JMA pristine DJF +PDO 500 mb pattern verifies, then I will change my opinion on the value of seasonal models. I am always open to changing my views based on new data. But we have seen numerous seasonal forecasts with nearly complete misses at times over the years.

 

 

If it means anything, the JMA MJO forecasts since the summer have been very good, one of the best in fact from what I have seen. Hopefully, this Niño is in its wheelhouse. 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If it means anything, the JMA MJO forecasts since the summer have been very good, one of the best in fact from what Ihaveseen. Hopefully, this Niño is in its wheelhouse. 

My interest in recent years has being trying to figure out why some periods like December into January 20-21 and January 22 went so strongly against the La Niña -PDO background state. These patterns usually sneak up on the short term models for a welcome surprise like they started to do in late November 20. Plus many of these more +PDO atmospheric patterns have actually occurred in the warm season and have lead to record heat and drought out West. But the last time we had such a wall to wall pattern like that in the cold season was the 14-15 winter. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Ultimately, it’s what the atmospheric component of the PDO is doing at any given time which is more important. By atmospheric component I mean the 500 mb pattern. Last winter the oceanic -PDO was strongly aligned with the 500 mb atmospheric component. So the end result was a La Niña on steroids pattern.
For some reason, the 500 mb pattern in early 20-21 and Jan 22 was more +PDO +PNA than the oceanic strong -PDO was indicating. So the alignment issue is very important for our sensible weather.
Even though the oceanic PDO signature is currently negative, the recent forecast for late November is classic +PDO with the -EPO +PNA. We want to see this more +PDO atmospheric pattern continue. Unfortunately, forecasting when these deviations from the oceanic index will occur usually comes down to the shorter range models. 
 

If the past is any indicator, this drop at the end of November into early December fits the strong Nino/+IOD script. We will probably see a substantial rise mid-late December

[snowman19]

[stadiumwave]

I know Paul Roundy explained how much the MEI index sucks but why did he tweet this back on Oct 24th? FWIW, he was wrong.

I'm not trying to knock Paul because I love that dude! But it kind of muddied his double down about how the latest weak MEI didn't matter. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

That is like calling the Blizzard of '78 an analog every time it snows.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the past is any indicator, this drop at the end of November into early December fits the strong Nino/+IOD script. We will probably see a substantial rise mid-late December

With the rapidly fading +IOD, it will be important how quickly we get a MJO 4-6 forcing rebound in December. The current GEFS and EPS have some forcing returning to the Maritime Continent in early December. We definitely want to see that muted or uncoupled.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, stadiumwave said:

I know Paul Roundy explained how much the MEI index sucks but why did he tweet this back on Oct 24th? FWIW, he was wrong.

I'm not trying to knock Paul because I love that dude! But it kind of muddied his double down about how the latest weak MEI didn't matter. 

 

No one is infallible, so I will knock him. Frankly, I think he has looked like a fool with how obstinate he has been this fall. Everyone is wrong at some point and he needs to just admit that he was off a bit and move on.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With the rapidly fading +IOD, it will be important how quickly we get a MJO 4-6 forcing rebound in December. The current GEFS and EPS have some forcing returning to the Maritime Continent in early December. We definitely want to see that muted or uncoupled.

 

phases 7, 8, and 1 are still handily running the show there. the MC forcing is also temporary... it's replaced by strong subsidence the week after

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

I know Paul Roundy explained how much the MEI index sucks but why did he tweet this back on Oct 24th? FWIW, he was wrong.

I'm not trying to knock Paul because I love that dude! But it kind of muddied his double down about how the latest weak MEI didn't matter. 

 

A few mets have opined that the -PDO/-PMM (extremely unusual) have muddied the MEI and we are also coming off a multi year La Niña cycle. We haven’t seen an event develop like this in a very long time, the MEI is biased towards more present events. I believe Paul mentioned that this Nino is similar to one we had back in the late 1800’s

[40/70 Benchmark]

That is what I like about Cohen....he always admits when he is wrong and is very approachable...you DM that guy and he responds as soon as he sees it. Some these guys act so condescending and their shit stinks as badly as everyone else's.