El Nino 2023-2024

[GaWx]

  On 11/5/2023 at 11:17 PM, snowman19 said:

Where is all the cold though? The SE is “cool/cold” from solar irradiance, clouds, precip from the roaring STJ overhead

 

 

 

 

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 The SE US can average very cold with a “warm” Canada. Actually, that’s typical of a +PNA because the Canadian air is pushed way down into the US, where it can be very cold vs averages even if the originating air is warm to Canadian averages:

[griteater]

  On 11/5/2023 at 11:17 PM, snowman19 said:

Where is all the cold though? The SE is “cool/cold” from solar irradiance, clouds, precip from the roaring STJ overhead

 

 

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This is a VERY cold 500mb pattern for January on the Euro for most of the E Half of U.S.  Big -EPO / +PNA / Big cross-polar flow / Above normal heights Hudson Bay to S of Greenland

[griteater]

  On 11/5/2023 at 11:09 PM, GaWx said:

The good news from my perspective is that the seasonal models are not dependable because I’d much rather that main bulge be ~30-40 degrees E of where this has it. That is assuming that that main bulge will be the main driver. Would it be?This has the light blues of the bulge from 150E to 170W or centered on 170E. That would favor MJO phase 6 as per the top image below. Phase 6 is the warmest phase for the E US in JFM per the 2nd image below. As one (like most of us) who would like a cool to cold E US winter, I’d prefer it be supportive of phases 8 and 1, which would be supported by enhanced precip a fair bit east of the dateline or near the heart of Nino 3.4 (say, 160W to 140W/centered near 150W) instead of being centered near 170E:

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  On 11/5/2023 at 11:35 PM, Terpeast said:

The way I read it is when forcing is centered on a location, it doesn’t mean that there will be mjo activity in that location wall to wall. More like it triggers an mjo wave at phase 6, then it propagates eastward through 7, 8, and 1. Unlike last year, the waters there are plenty warm enough so any mjo wave that propagates should stay strong instead of it hitting a wall

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A few thoughts:

1. Fair point from GA as the lack of big cooling in the W Pac and E Maritime Continent may cause some interference with El Nino at times by enhancing convection in the W Pac...but yeah, whether the MJO RMM plots are showing a legit east tracking MJO wave or not, there is almost always a background weak MJO wave/ripple that traverses the equator around the globe, and as that signal (usually seen well with VP movement) kicks out of the W Pac into the dateline and east and constructively interferes with the background El Nino convection, that will be the time that should offer the most promise for wintry weather in the East.

2. Look at how the precip maps from the winters of 09-10 / 02-03 (west-based El Ninos) compare with 97-98 / 82-83 (east-based El Ninos).  Euro and Cansips Seasonals match more with the west-based look

 

3. Lastly, here is how MJO phases 6-7-8-1-2 look during El Nino in December / Jan / Feb (note: the Dec images don't have a 'Dec' label or El Nino label on them, but you can see that they are grouped under Dec during El Nino when you click on the images here): https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

December:

 

January:

 

February:

 

[stadiumwave]

  On 11/6/2023 at 2:40 AM, griteater said:

A few thoughts:

1. Fair point from GA as the lack of big cooling in the W Pac and E Maritime Continent may cause some interference with El Nino at times by enhancing convection in the W Pac...but yeah, whether the MJO RMM plots are showing a legit east tracking MJO wave or not, there is almost always a background weak MJO wave/ripple that traverses the equator around the globe, and as that signal (usually seen well with VP movement) kicks out of the W Pac into the dateline and east and constructively interferes with the background El Nino convection, that will be the time that should offer the most promise for wintry weather in the East.

2. Look at how the precip maps from the winters of 09-10 / 02-03 (west-based El Ninos) compare with 97-98 / 82-83 (east-based El Ninos).  Euro and Cansips Seasonals match more with the west-based look

 

3. Lastly, here is how MJO phases 6-7-8-1-2 look during El Nino in December / Jan / Feb (note: the Dec images don't have a 'Dec' label or El Nino label on them, but you can see that they are grouped under Dec during El Nino when you click on the images here): https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

December:

 

January:

 

February:

 

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The forcing comparison is just massive! I keep asking myself why some will not mention this? Like it doesn't matter? It matters!!!

Great post on all Grit!

[Itryatgolf70]

  On 11/6/2023 at 2:40 AM, griteater said:

A few thoughts:

1. Fair point from GA as the lack of big cooling in the W Pac and E Maritime Continent may cause some interference with El Nino at times by enhancing convection in the W Pac...but yeah, whether the MJO RMM plots are showing a legit east tracking MJO wave or not, there is almost always a background weak MJO wave/ripple that traverses the equator around the globe, and as that signal (usually seen well with VP movement) kicks out of the W Pac into the dateline and east and constructively interferes with the background El Nino convection, that will be the time that should offer the most promise for wintry weather in the East.

2. Look at how the precip maps from the winters of 09-10 / 02-03 (west-based El Ninos) compare with 97-98 / 82-83 (east-based El Ninos).  Euro and Cansips Seasonals match more with the west-based look

 

3. Lastly, here is how MJO phases 6-7-8-1-2 look during El Nino in December / Jan / Feb (note: the Dec images don't have a 'Dec' label or El Nino label on them, but you can see that they are grouped under Dec during El Nino when you click on the images here): https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

December:

 

January:

 

February:

 

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It's all about timing regardless of what happens. If a pattern favors cold, it will usually be cold. If a pattern favors warm, then we will probably have warm weather. Hopefully the atmosphere will match the ocean, but currently the -AAM is leading the way.

[snowman19]

New Euro run still shows a super El Niño

[GaWx]

  On 11/6/2023 at 5:13 AM, snowman19 said:

New Euro run still shows a super El Niño
 

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 Indeed, it is about the same as last month with an ONI peak near +2.08. But keep in mind that the Euro was much too warm in Oct. So, I don’t buy it peaking that high and remain in the +1.7 to +1.9 range for at least now.

[bluewave]

  On 11/6/2023 at 2:39 AM, griteater said:

This is a VERY cold 500mb pattern for January on the Euro for most of the E Half of U.S.  Big -EPO / +PNA / Big cross-polar flow / Above normal heights Hudson Bay to S of Greenland

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Unfortunately,  the Euro seasonal doesn’t have much skill beyond the first month which in this case would be November. But even that can vary quite a bit from reality once the month verifies. We can remember how the Euro was going for a repeat of 13-14 or 14-15 with the 18-19 El Niño. Granted this is a much stronger event than that one, but I won’t buy a cold look like that until it shows up in a 6-10 or 11-15 day EPS mean.  For some reason the Euro seasonal couldn’t see the La Niña background state influence in the 18-19 winter. And this fall so far has been a blend of El Niño and La Niña influences. Not a pure El Niño composite.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/4/2023 at 5:28 PM, bluewave said:

The atmospheric response at 500 mb has been a mix of El Niño and La Niña influences. So we could make the argument that the weaker MEI still reflects an element of the La Niña background state. That’s more valuable for forecasting the sensible weather outside the tropics than just looking at what the OLR and SOI are doing. The ridge NW of Hawaii  and over Hudson Bay is more a La Niña feature. While the ridging around Alaska is more El Niño-like in October. The Aleutian low is in an intermediate position between the El Niño and La Niña composites.
 

 

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Where do you generate those Nino images?

[bluewave]

  On 11/6/2023 at 1:10 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where do you generate those Nino images?

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Just open the base time drop down menus at the top and all Euro monthly and seasonal forecasts are archived back to January 2017. Select dimensions…base time…

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_z500?area=GLOB&base_time=202311010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202312020000

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/5/2023 at 7:49 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Someone run a composite of 1966, 1969, 1987 and 2003...it probably looks like the Euro.

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[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/6/2023 at 12:14 PM, bluewave said:

Unfortunately,  the Euro seasonal doesn’t have much skill beyond the first month which in this case would be November. But even that can vary quite a bit from reality once the month verifies. We can remember how the Euro was going for a repeat of 13-14 or 14-15 with the 18-19 El Niño. Granted this is a much stronger event than that one, but I won’t buy a cold look like that until it shows up in a 6-10 or 11-15 day EPS mean.  For some reason the Euro seasonal couldn’t see the La Niña background state influence in the 18-19 winter. And this fall so far has been a blend of El Niño and La Niña influences. Not a pure El Niño composite.

 

 

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What I like is that the fact that they signal cold bodes very well for avoiding a non-starter type of winter....odds are, we can't overcome a warm start and average +temps and NAO for DM in the aggregate, but will anyone care if we accumulate heavy seasonal totals?

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/6/2023 at 1:16 PM, bluewave said:

Just open the base time drop down menus at the top and all Euro monthly and seasonal forecasts are archived back to January 2017. Select dimensions…base time…

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_z500?area=GLOB&base_time=202311010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202312020000

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No, these...

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/6/2023 at 12:14 PM, bluewave said:

Unfortunately,  the Euro seasonal doesn’t have much skill beyond the first month which in this case would be November. But even that can vary quite a bit from reality once the month verifies. We can remember how the Euro was going for a repeat of 13-14 or 14-15 with the 18-19 El Niño. Granted this is a much stronger event than that one, but I won’t buy a cold look like that until it shows up in a 6-10 or 11-15 day EPS mean.  For some reason the Euro seasonal couldn’t see the La Niña background state influence in the 18-19 winter. And this fall so far has been a blend of El Niño and La Niña influences. Not a pure El Niño composite.

 

 

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My guess is that the EURO was led astray by the same issue that killed my forecast....a fraudulent warm ENSO regime. I feel like we are adjusting to that better and this event is appreciably stronger, as you have mentioned. Are the coldest models too cold? Probably, but I just want snow...I don't need Boston Harbor to freeze over.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/5/2023 at 7:49 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Someone run a composite of 1966, 1969, 1987 and 2003...it probably looks like the Euro.

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  On 11/6/2023 at 1:19 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

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[GaWx]

  On 11/6/2023 at 1:16 PM, bluewave said:

Just open the base time drop down menus at the top and all Euro monthly and seasonal forecasts are archived back to January 2017. Select dimensions…base time…

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_z500?area=GLOB&base_time=202311010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202312020000

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 Thanks for the link.

1. Excellent point about it miserably failing in its Nov H5 forecast for the prior Nino D, J, and F, 2018-9. And I’m not a big proponent of seasonal forecasts in general due to lack of accuracy.

 But, will it fail again? At least this time the Nino is much stronger with ASO of 2023 RONI of +1.05 vs only +0.39 for ASO of 2018. 2018-9’s RONI peaked at only +0.76, 0.29 weaker than RONI already is. It is likely headed to near a high end moderate.
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

Also, the ASO of 2023 SOI was -10.4 vs only -4.2 for ASO of 2018:

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt

 So, does the fact that the 2023-4 El Niño is much stronger than 2018-9 mean much?

2. The good news for folks who don’t want a warm E US winter is that the Nov of 2017 as well as Nov of 2019-22 Euro forecasts all had much higher H5 heights in the E US and the Aleutians in all of the D, J, and F forecasts vs what the Nov of 2023 forecast is for the upcoming D, J, and F. Nov of 2018 is the only Nov forecast back to 2017 even remotely similar to Nov of 2023.

[bluewave]

  On 11/6/2023 at 1:26 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My guess is that the EURO was led astray by the same issue that killed my forecast....a fraudulent warm ENSO regime. I feel like we are adjusting to that better and this event is appreciably stronger, as you have mentioned. Are the coldest models too cold? Probably, but I just want snow...I don't need Boston Harbor to freeze over.

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It does look like the Euro is trying to blend the El Niño and La Niña influences for December. The strong Canadian ridging is classic El Niño for December. But the Southeast or Western Atlantic ridge is more a La Niña influence. The hope is that we get some semblance of a cleaner El Niño look from late January into February since that is usually prime time for El Niños. Don’t want to see a La Niña influence in February since that is typically when La Ninas influence is warmest.
 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/enso_statistics/index.html

 

[snowman19]

I don’t like to speak in absolutes about weather but this El Nino/+IOD is going to run the entire show this winter, I have no doubt. All the talk of a weak atmospheric response is folly IMO

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/6/2023 at 2:03 PM, GaWx said:

 Thanks for the link.

1. Excellent point about it miserably failing in its Nov H5 forecast for the prior Nino D, J, and F, 2018-9. And I’m not a big proponent of seasonal forecasts in general due to lack of accuracy.

 But, will it fail again? At least this time the Nino is much stronger with ASO of 2023 RONI of +1.05 vs only +0.39 for ASO of 2018. 2018-9’s RONI peaked at only +0.76, 0.29 weaker than RONI already is. It is likely headed to near a high end moderate.
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

Also, the ASO of 2023 SOI was -10.4 vs only -4.2 for ASO of 2018:

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt

 So, does the fact that the 2023-4 El Niño is much stronger than 2018-9 mean much?

2. The good news for folks who don’t want a warm E US winter is that the Nov of 2017 as well as Nov of 2019-22 Euro forecasts all had much higher H5 heights in the E US and the Aleutians in all of the D, J, and F forecasts vs what the Nov of 2023 forecast is for the upcoming D, J, and F.

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The point isn't that I expect to to be lethally accurate, but that all of the global guidance is consistently signaling that this isn't going to be a typical blow-torch stronger el Nino. About as much as you can ask for...could they all fail miserably, sure, but would we feel better if they all photocopied 1997-1998?

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/6/2023 at 2:04 PM, bluewave said:

It does look like the Euro is trying to blend the El Niño and La Niña influences for December. The strong Canadian ridging is classic El Niño for December. But the Southeast or Western Atlantic ridge is more a La Niña influence. The hope is that we get some semblance of a cleaner El Niño look from late January into February since that is usually prime time for El Niños. Don’t want to see a La Niña influence in February since that is typically when La Ninas influence is warmest.
 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/enso_statistics/index.html

 

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Personally, I am okay with a la Nina like gradient in December....I'll take my chances with that.

[GaWx]

  On 11/6/2023 at 2:05 PM, snowman19 said:

I don’t like to speak in absolutes about weather but this El Nino/+IOD is going to run the entire show this winter, I have no doubt. All the talk of a weak atmospheric response is folly IMO
 

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For those not wanting a La Ninalike/SER/MJO 4-5 dominant type of pattern, wouldn’t it actually be good rather than bad news that El Niño will likely have a strong instead of weak atmospheric influence?

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/6/2023 at 2:11 PM, GaWx said:

For those not wanting a La Ninalike/SER/MJO 4-5 dominant type of pattern, wouldn’t it actually be good rather than bad news that El Niño will likely have a strong instead of weak atmospheric influence?

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Ideally, it works like a synoptic overrunning event when the SW flow slams into antecedent arctic cold only in terms of ENSO.....so we have warm ENSO being met with resistance by the antecedent cold ENSO momentum in the atmosphere, which mitigates it enough whereas we don't get the overbearing canonical effect.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Who was it that posted info on GLAAM a bit back? I don't know much about that and would like to learn more...I think that may do a good job of reflecting what I am referring to.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That Aleutian Low on the EURO is really far back to the west...wow.

[GaWx]

  On 11/6/2023 at 2:14 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ideally, it works like a synoptic overrunning event when the SW flow slams into antecedent arctic cold only in terms of ENSO.....so we have warm ENSO being met with resistance by the antecedent cold ENSO momentum in the atmosphere, which mitigates it enough whereas we don't get the overbearing canonical effect.

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From my standpoint here in the SE for wanting a normal or cooler winter, I’ll take any El Niño influence over none. Just get rid of the dominating SER of the last few winters. Get rid of anything resembling a typical La Nina. Thus a strong El Niño atmospheric influence would be a major improvement for me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/6/2023 at 2:22 PM, GaWx said:

From my standpoint here in the SE for wanting a normal or cooler winter, I’ll take any El Niño influence over none. Just get rid of the dominating SER of the last few winters. Get rid of anything resembling a typical La Nina. Thus a strong El Niño atmospheric influence would be a major improvement for me.

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Yea, I get that....I would rather keep a bit of la nina appeal in order to ensure some N stream assertion.

[snowman19]

  On 11/6/2023 at 6:05 AM, GaWx said:

 Indeed, it is about the same as last month with an ONI peak near +2.08. But keep in mind that the Euro was much too warm in Oct. So, I don’t buy it peaking that high and remain in the +1.7 to +1.9 range for at least now.

CPC just updated the official weekly readings, Nino 3.4 over +1.8C….

Nino 1+2: +2.2C
Nino 3: +2.1C
Nino 3.4: +1.8C
Nino 4: +1.4C

And this is BEFORE the DWKW/WWB warming currently in progress has yet to take effect. This one is going super. It’s coming

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[brooklynwx99]

  On 11/6/2023 at 3:34 PM, snowman19 said:

CPC just updated the official weekly readings, Nino 3.4 over +1.8C….

Nino 1+2: +2.2C
Nino 3: +2.1C
Nino 3.4: +1.8C
Nino 4: +1.4C

And this is BEFORE the DWKW/WWB warming currently in progress has yet to take effect. This one is going super. It’s coming

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

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by super, do you mean three consecutive trimonthly periods that average +2.0C or greater? just to be clear

[brooklynwx99]

  On 11/6/2023 at 2:20 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That Aleutian Low on the EURO is really far back to the west...wow.

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yeah it's basically Feb 2010 all over again. makes sense given what's been talked about ad nauseam in this thread

[brooklynwx99]

that just does not look like an overwhelming EP super Nino response. wonder why