El Nino 2023-2024

[George001]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 “FWIW” is the key. I’ve found these long range/climate model predictions to be of little value. I’ve seen this and other ones totally blow their winter forecasts even on Nov 30th! Here’s a great example from the 11/30/22 CANSIPS for last DJF that shows the MidAtlantic states near normal (+0.25 to +0.5C or ~+0.5 to +1F) vs 1981-2010 normals. The 1981-2010 NYC normal DJF is 35.5F. This CANSIPS was forecasting NYC to be ~36.2F. The actual winter averaged way up at 41F! So, this model’s Nov 30th run was a whopping 4.8F too cold for last winter there and similarly much too cold all around there/too cold throughout the E US. Also, it was much too warm in the W US. So, it totally blew it the day before winter started:

CANSIPS 11/30/22 forecast for last DJF (1981-2010 normals)

 

Actual (1981-2010 normals): much warmer E US and much colder W US vs Nov 30th CANSIPS forecast

It not only significantly underestimated the eastern warmth, it also missed the western US troughing. Just a completely different pattern. I agree with you about taking these models with a grain of salt.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t have an issue with that. Bastardis AGW denial agenda is problematic and is a big reason why his forecasts have been busting too cold and snowy.

He obviously has an agenda that biases his contemporary work, but the guy had already established himself on the Mount Rushmore of meteorology.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 “FWIW” is the key. I’ve found these long range/climate model predictions to be of little value. I’ve seen this and other ones totally blow their winter forecasts even on Nov 30th! Here’s a great example from the 11/30/22 CANSIPS for last DJF that shows the MidAtlantic states near normal (+0.25 to +0.5C or ~+0.5 to +1F) vs 1981-2010 normals. The 1981-2010 NYC normal DJF is 35.5F. This CANSIPS was forecasting NYC to be ~36.2F. The actual winter averaged way up at 41F! So, this model’s Nov 30th run was a whopping 4.8F too cold for last winter there and similarly much too cold all around there/too cold throughout the E US. Also, it was much too warm in the W US. So, it totally blew most of the country and this was released the day before winter started:

CANSIPS 11/30/22 forecast for last DJF (1981-2010 normals)

Actual (1981-2010 normals): much warmer E US and much colder W US vs Nov 30th CANSIPS forecast

Not sure last season is a great example given the magnitude of the PDO....that will never be forecasted on a seasonal level.

[George001]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My LICSW mind sniffs out some jealousy of the career he has built and insecurity about this own professional standing.

That’s actually my biggest issue with Bastardi. He is not some random idiot on Twitter. He’s a successful meteorologist with a big following. I don’t like him, but he’s not an idiot, in fact he’s actually quite intelligent. He has forgotten more about meteorology than many weenies including myself will ever learn in our entire lives. He is pushing this harmful AGW denier agenda to get clicks, and it’s working. The random idiots on twitter aren’t concerning, it’s the smart conmen with big followings like Bastardi who are. I wish he would put that knowledge he has to do good rather than misleading his audience about climate change. 

[griteater]

On 8/1/2023 at 7:18 PM, griteater said:

In scanning thru some VP images, it seems like the VP that sets up in the Sep-Nov timeframe tends to throw out some clues in terms of how things will go in the winter.

The El Nino years when the Sep-Nov -VP is either heavy in the E Pacific or extends from the E Pacific into S America, the resulting winter pattern has more of an east-based look with Aleutian Low pressure farther east and northern conus and S Canada ridging.  See 91-92 and 94-95 (same ideas for 15-16, but image not shown)

The El Nino years when the Sep-Nov -VP is weaker in the E Pacific and positive in S America, the resulting winter pattern has more of a west-based look with Aleutian Low pressure farther west and ridging into AK and W Canada.  See 02-03 and 09-10 (same ideas for 14-15, but image not shown)

Note that the VP pattern among the 4 years in the winter isn't as different as it is in the fall (2 camps seen in the fall)

 

 

 

Checking back in on this post, so far in the Sep-Oct period, we are aligning more with the west-based look from a VP standpoint.  And scanning thru the ensemble forecasts, I see no reason to think that November is going to see a major change from what has already occurred in Sep-Oct.

Here is what we've seen so far in Sep-Oct...

 

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not sure last season is a great example given the magnitude of the PDO....that will never be forecasted on a seasonal level.

 My point is that the seasonal models, including CANSIPS, can very easily end up way off (too warm, cold, dry, wet, etc) for winter even the day before winter starts and we’re still a month out.

 Regarding the PDO, it was already way down at -2.41 in Nov of 22 and it actually rose during the winter (winter averaged -1.70).

[Stormchaserchuck1]

28 minutes ago, griteater said:

Checking back in on this post, so far in the Sep-Oct period, we are aligning more with the west-based look from a VP standpoint.  And scanning thru the ensemble forecasts, I see no reason to think that November is going to see a major change from what has already occurred in Sep-Oct.

Here is what we've seen so far in Sep-Oct...

 

So what? It correlates with -PNA..

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I made a comment in here about his posts....I don't follow him on twitter, but every time I see a post in here of his, it sounds really snarky and condescending. Not a good way to conduct scientific inquiry.

i mean hell, notice how he didn’t post the highly favorable Feb and Mar plots

wonder why

[bluewave]

Plenty of competing influences with the AAM still in La Niña mode.

 

 

[snowman19]

High confidence we hit +2.0C by mid-month. My guess stands, +2.1C - +2.3C for a trimonthly ONI

[George BM]

Update

ASO ONI (nearest tenth): 1.5C

ASO RONI: 1.05C

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We're getting a pretty good Kelvin Wave right now. 

 

[GaWx]

On 10/31/2023 at 12:21 PM, GaWx said:

 The latest daily WCS PDO fell back some more to -0.90 (for Oct 30th). Per WCS, the PDO will come in near -1.0 for Oct vs ~-2.0 for Sep. Since NOAA has been coming in significantly more negative, that tells me that the NOAA PDO for Oct will probably come in or near the -1.5 to -1.8 range, which would be an impressive rise from the -2.94 of Sept as it would be one of the largest El Niño rises Sep to Oct. (rise likely to be in/near range of 1.14 to 1.44):

Other large El Niño Sep to Oct NOAA PDO rises: 

-1876: 1.08

-1880: 1.79

-1918: 0.90

-1969: 2.02

-1986: 1.03

-2006: 1.08

1. Despite the WCS PDO for Oct coming in at up at ~-1.0 from Sep’s ~-2.0 and thus my expectation that NOAA’s Oct would come in within or near -1.5 to -1.8, it actually came in still down at -2.36. That’s still a decent rise from the -2.97 of Sep but is disappointing:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

 

2. The WCS daily PDO rose slightly for the 2nd straight day and was at -0.99. So, NOAA daily is probably still down near or below -2. So, there’s still a long ways to go to get anywhere close to neutral. Keep in mind that last winter had a -1.70 NOAA PDO and Oct of 2022 was -1.80 vs the -2.36 of 10/2023. So, getting a NOAA PDO for DJF to average >-1.0 will not be easy!

[griteater]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We're getting a pretty good Kelvin Wave right now. 

 

Definitely a wave that will add some warming, but it doesn't look hawt IMO - more like a lot of the ripples we've been seeing this year

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

Today’s EPS backed off some (though nowhere near completely) vs yesterday’s run, which had shown the strongest indications for a weakened SPV in Dec yet. Yesterday’s had the 60N 10 mb wind dip way down to 21 m/s vs the normal of 35. Today’s has the EPS mean dip to 25 m/s, which is still significant. The prior two days of runs implied ~18% of members with actual or impending major SSWs in early to mid Dec. Today’s backed off to ~10%, which is similar to the run from three days ago. At day 45, yesterday’s had ~85% of members with a SPV weaker than climo. Today’s is ~75%.

Today’s EPS 10mb 60N mean wind forecast backed off a good bit more from the weak SPV having been forecasted in recent days. Two to three days ago it had it dip (vs the 35 m/s normal) to 21 m/s. Yesterday that rose to 25 m/s. Today it is up to 30 m/s along with only ~7% of members suggesting a major SSW in early to mid Dec vs 10% yesterday and 18% 2-3 days ago. Also, the Nov and early Dec. SPV is significantly stronger than yesterday:

[brooklynwx99]

that stuff is going to wobble around from day to day. there is still a considerable a weakening trend once we enter December

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that stuff is going to wobble around from day to day. there is still a considerable a weakening trend once we enter December

Absolutely it will wobble. But it had a large wobble today, which doesn’t have the SPV fall back below normal til ~12/10. Two days ago it did that already on 11/30. I like to follow the trends/wobbles. Sometimes the wobbles are actually pointing to a new trend. But maybe it will do a hard wobble back the other way tomorrow for all we know.

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Absolutely it will wobble. But it had a large wobble today, which doesn’t have the SPV fall back below normal til ~12/10. Two days ago it did that already on 11/30. I like to follow the trends/wobbles. Sometimes the wobbles are actually pointing to a new trend. But maybe it will do a hard wobble back the other way tomorrow for all we know.

With all the large wobbles, I  have a hard time thinking daily ensemble updates are really that useful. Seems they are just as bad, or close to just as bad, as operational runs. Jmho

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

With all the large wobbles, I  have a hard time thinking daily ensemble updates are really that useful. Seems they are just as bad, or close to just as bad, as operational runs. Jmho

 Yeah, even the ensemble means aren’t anywhere close to reliable that far out but then again the EPS has done a far better job predicting the SPV than what’s underneath. That’s why it has my interest. Also, there actually haven’t been any wobbles as big as today’s since I started looking at it closely. Is it just a wobble? Stay tuned!

[stadiumwave]

4 hours ago, George001 said:

I don’t have an issue with that. Bastardis AGW denial agenda is problematic and is a big reason why his forecasts have been busting too cold and snowy.

 

Really? Why would Eric allow Bastardi's calling for a cold winter every year bother him? Like, who cares. I like Eric but I've watched him be unnecessarily snarky to many. BTW, his issue with Bastardi is not so much his AGW views. 

[stadiumwave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

High confidence we hit +2.0C by mid-month. My guess stands, +2.1C - +2.3C for a trimonthly ONI

 

 

This is definitely a hybrid & does not fall into classical categories. The west warming keeps it from being classical east & my suspicion is that's one reason why this Nino has consistently wanted to keep the forcing further west.

[griteater]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

So what? It correlates with -PNA..

The point was......prior years that had the type of VP spatial pattern in the Sep-Nov timeframe on the image I posted tended to continue with that look into winter...and during El Nino, low frequency (3-4 month) -VP uplift in the central Pacific with +VP in Indonesia and Brazil absolutely does not correlate with a -PNA

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, griteater said:

The point was......prior years that had the type of VP spatial pattern in the Sep-Nov timeframe on the image I posted tended to continue with that look into winter...and during El Nino, low frequency (3-4 month) -VP uplift in the central Pacific with +VP in Indonesia and Brazil absolutely does not correlate with a -PNA

It happened every year from 1950 to 1972. The average of the 23-consecutive years was greater than this year (Sept-Oct). That was a very -PNA/-PDO time.  The VP caught on here as "something to correlate", but it's not by itself very correlated to the pattern. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 My point is that the seasonal models, including CANSIPS, can very easily end up way off (too warm, cold, dry, wet, etc) for winter even the day before winter starts and we’re still a month out.

 Regarding the PDO, it was already way down at -2.41 in Nov of 22 and it actually rose during the winter (winter averaged -1.70).

I don't just mean the numeric value of the index...the pattern itself was very anomalous and augmented by the fact that even the +PNA interval in January was biased so far west that it acted as an extreme RNA. 

I'm not arguing the point that seasonals have Gross limitations....just that last season was an anomaly that wasn't really predictable on a seasonal level. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, George001 said:

That’s actually my biggest issue with Bastardi. He is not some random idiot on Twitter. He’s a successful meteorologist with a big following. I don’t like him, but he’s not an idiot, in fact he’s actually quite intelligent. He has forgotten more about meteorology than many weenies including myself will ever learn in our entire lives. He is pushing this harmful AGW denier agenda to get clicks, and it’s working. The random idiots on twitter aren’t concerning, it’s the smart conmen with big followings like Bastardi who are. I wish he would put that knowledge he has to do good rather than misleading his audience about climate change. 

No argument here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that stuff is going to wobble around from day to day. there is still a considerable a weakening trend once we enter December

I think PV disruption is closer to mid month into the holidays.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It happened every year from 1950 to 1972. The average of the 23-consecutive years was greater than this year (Sept-Oct). That was a very -PNA/-PDO time.  The VP caught on here as "something to correlate", but it's not by itself very correlated to the pattern. 

Why are you just focusing on the 50's and 60's?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Measure the thing as a stand alone index. It has little predictive value for sensible weather. 

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why are you just focusing on the 50's and 60's?

I just started going by the thing year-by-year. I found that the first 23 years were all alike. It's a longer term pattern or cycle, but the 1950s and 1960s were very -PNA, and that's 30% of your yearly dataset. Again, be an observer, because something is blue or red during an El Nino year doesn't mean that it isn't random. Seperate the thing out year-by-year and you find La Nina's and El Nino's both associated with similar "forcings". 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Measure the thing as a stand alone index. It has little predictive value for sensible weather. 

I just started going by the thing year-by-year. I found that the first 23 years were all alike. It's a longer term pattern or cycle, but the 1950s and 1960s were very -PNA, and that's 25% of your yearly dataset. Again, be an observer, because something is blue or red during an El Nino year doesn't mean that isn't random. Seperate the thing out year-by-year and you find La Nina's and El Nino's both associated with similar "forcings". 

I don't agree with you that the forcing doesn't matter....at least in stronger events. But obviously +PNA seasons are more difficult to come by in the heart of a multi decadal cold phase. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't agree with you that the forcing doesn't matter....at least in stronger events. But obviously +PNA seasons are more difficult to come by in the heart of a multi decadal cold phase. 

Something like OLR or 200mb, 850mb Zonal wind are higher correlated.