El Nino 2023-2024

[so_whats_happening]

  On 10/31/2023 at 9:50 AM, mitchnick said:

Great post with 1 correction.  BWI had around 39" of snow in 13/14. I assume you were referring to it when you said "little or snow across the area..."

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  On 10/31/2023 at 11:17 AM, Terpeast said:

Yeah, maybe it was different in PA. DCA had 32” and IAD 53” in 13-14

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I was referencing lancaster area we had 13" that year.

[mitchnick]

  On 10/31/2023 at 3:23 PM, so_whats_happening said:

 

I was referencing lancaster area we had 13" that year.

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Wow. You got treated like BWI usually does.

[FPizz]

13/14 was the 2nd best winter in my lifetime with 66" near the Rutgers area

[so_whats_happening]

  On 10/31/2023 at 3:38 PM, mitchnick said:

Wow. You got treated like BWI usually does.

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Yea 21/22 (i believe this was more se this year than s, jersey shore delaware folks) was also another year where they got hit quite a bit. Rough being nearly 60 miles straight shot and getting half the snowfall.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 10/31/2023 at 3:23 PM, so_whats_happening said:

 

I was referencing lancaster area we had 13" that year.

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  On 10/31/2023 at 3:38 PM, mitchnick said:

Wow. You got treated like BWI usually does.

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There's no way Lancaster only had 13" in 2013-14.....that must be from the 2012-13 season.

[mattie g]

  On 10/31/2023 at 3:55 PM, ORH_wxman said:

There's no way Lancaster only had 13" in 2013-14.....that must be from the 2012-13 season.

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Sounds right. From https://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/climo/season-snow.html:

 

2012/13           14.6
2013/14           61.9

[GaWx]

 The latest daily WCS PDO fell back some more to -0.90 (for Oct 30th). Per WCS, the PDO will come in near -1.0 for Oct vs ~-2.0 for Sep. Since NOAA has been coming in significantly more negative, that tells me that the NOAA PDO for Oct will probably come in or near the -1.5 to -1.8 range, which would be an impressive rise from the -2.94 of Sept as it would be one of the largest El Niño rises Sep to Oct. (rise likely to be in/near range of 1.14 to 1.44):

Other large El Niño Sep to Oct NOAA PDO rises: 

-1876: 1.08

-1880: 1.79

-1918: 0.90

-1969: 2.02

-1986: 1.03

-2006: 1.08

[so_whats_happening]

  On 10/31/2023 at 3:55 PM, ORH_wxman said:

 

There's no way Lancaster only had 13" in 2013-14.....that must be from the 2012-13 season.

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Yea my bad went into the monthly break down and saw the 14" listed there thinking it was 13-14. Went back and edit the mistake was year off on both those references.

[Terpeast]

  On 10/31/2023 at 4:21 PM, GaWx said:

Other large El Niño Sep to Oct PDO rises: 

-1876: 1.08

-1880: 1.79

-1918: 0.90

-1969: 2.02

-1986: 1.03

-2006: 1.08

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So you can see how rare this is. I haven't gone back further than the 1950s, but 1986-87 and 2006-07 are also on my analog short list.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

  On 10/30/2023 at 11:26 PM, mitchnick said:

If I recall correctly, Stormchaser Chuck's research showed we don't want a -NAO in October if we want one for the winter. It's not absolute, but odds favor a +NAO over D-F with a -NAO in October. @Stormchaserchuck1 Please correct me if I am wrong.

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I found that October is the only month of the year that doesn't have a +correlation to Winter NAO. There was actually a slight opposite correlation from October to DJFM at I think 52% (75 years). 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

  On 10/27/2023 at 2:55 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It ties into @Stormchaserchuck1's subsurface theory, which I think has about a .30 average error.

Its -.05 this season.

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0.54 SD, at -0.05, so 50% chance of DJFM NAO range of -0.59 to +0.49, as per N. Atl SST theory [CPC]. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 10/27/2023 at 7:38 PM, GaWx said:

2023’s ASO SOI looks to come in near -11. To compare:

2018: -4

2015: -19

2014: -8

2009: -5

2006: -12

2004: -4

2002: -10

1997: -16

1994: -12

1991: -12

1987: -10

1986: -2

1982: -21

1979: -2

1977: -11

1976: -7

1972: -11

1969: -9

1968: -1

1965: -12

1963: -8

1958: +1

1957: -6

1953: -10

1951: -10

- The six moderate El Niños since 1951-2 averaged -7 with a range of -1 to -12.

- The 10 weak ones also averaged -7 (with a range of +1 to -12).

- The four strong ones averaged -8 (range -5 to -12).

- The five super-strong averaged -16 (range -11 to -21).

 

  Based on the above: whereas 2023’s -11 ASO SOI isn’t “representative” of a super-strong, it is easily representative of strong (actually border between strong and super) and thus solidly translates to that form of atmospheric coupling during ASO imho.

 

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Not huge on the SOI, but what is the paddock site, or whatever it is? Link that, please. Up to my tits in data right now trying to synthesize everything.

Thanks.

[griteater]

  On 10/31/2023 at 5:22 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not huge on the SOI, but what is the paddock site, or whatever it is? Link that, please. Up to my tits in data right now trying to synthesize everything.

Thanks.

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https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/soi-data-files/

[GaWx]

  On 10/31/2023 at 5:22 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not huge on the SOI, but what is the paddock site, or whatever it is? Link that, please. Up to my tits in data right now trying to synthesize everything.

Thanks.

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ASO ended up at -10.45. Since 1950 prior to 2023, this is how ASO SOI came out for El Niños:

- The five super-strong averaged -16 (range -11 to -21).

- The four strong ones averaged -8 (range -5 to -12).

- The six moderate averaged -7 with a range of -1 to -12.

- The 10 weak ones also averaged -7 (with a range of +1 to -12).

- Thus, this came in weaker than the super-strong range but within the upper part of the strong range for ASO.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[snowman19]

Here’s some good +IOD/El Nino info going back over 50+ years:

[GaWx]

  On 10/31/2023 at 6:21 PM, snowman19 said:

Here’s some good +IOD/El Nino info going back over 50+ years:
 

 

 

 

 

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 He should have also included 1994 and 2006 per this IOD/DMI link and even based on looking at his chart:

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

 As I’ve said, I as a cold preferrer don’t like what I’ve recently learned about IOD/DMI and thus hope 2023-4 is colder than most of  the winters following +IOD autumn El Niños. I have hope because there clearly are mixed signals. Plus 1963-4 was very cold. Regardless, I’ll be rooting for -IOD or neutral IOD in future El Niños.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I can't find any of the seasonal vp forecasts online...anyone have that?

[Terpeast]

  On 10/31/2023 at 6:40 PM, GaWx said:

 He should have also included 1994 and 2006 per this IOD/DMI link and even based on looking at his chart:

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

 As I’ve said, I as a cold preferrer don’t like what I’ve recently learned about IOD/DMI and thus hope 2023-4 is colder than the winters following +IOD autumn El Niños. I have hope because there clearly are mixed signals. Regardless, I’ll be rooting for -IOD or neutral IOD in future El Niños.

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Strong +IOD shows a signal for an east-displaced GOA trough for all years regardless of ENSO, and a stronger east-based aleutian low for nino years. Cold anomalies would be tilted to the SW than SE. 

But for the record, I don't think the IOD is a big factor this year. Many of these seasons in both composites are El Ninos much stronger than this one, and I don't think we can separate out the IOD signal from strong ninos.

[GaWx]

  On 10/31/2023 at 7:08 PM, Terpeast said:

Strong +IOD shows a signal for an east-displaced GOA trough for all years regardless of ENSO, and a stronger east-based aleutian low. Cold anomalies would be tilted to the SW than SE. 

But for the record, I don't think the IOD is a big factor this year. Many of these seasons in both composites are El Ninos much stronger than this one, and I don't think we can separate out the IOD signal from strong ninos.

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 On that note of the +IOD El Niño autumns, 1963-4, 1994-5, 2006-7, and 2018-9 weren’t super-strong. Of those in E US: 1963-4 was a cold winter though 1994-5 and 2018/9 were mild. 2006-7 was near normal.

[griteater]

  On 10/31/2023 at 6:47 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can't find any of the seasonal vp forecasts online...anyone have that?

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VP Forecasts:

CANSIPS on TTidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2023100100&fh=0

Euro / Meteo France / UKMet on Meteo France site: http://seasonal.meteo.fr/content/PS-previ-cartes?language=en

Copernicus Ensemble Mean on cyclonicwx site: https://cyclonicwx.com/models/c3s/global/vp200a/2023100100/003/

[Terpeast]

  On 10/31/2023 at 7:19 PM, GaWx said:

 On that note of the +IOD El Niño autumns, 1963-4, 1994-5, 2006-7, and 2018-9 weren’t super-strong. Of those in E US: 1963-4 was a cold winter though 1994-5 and 2018/9 were mild. 2006-7 was near normal.

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Right, if I remember correctly 18-19 wasn’t that warm up here. So its bit of a mixed signal and kind of a wash. If I adjusted 63-64 a few degrees warmer, though, it’s a weak mild signal here. 

[snowman19]

Nino 3.4 is at the warmest daily reading on OISST since this event started back in March (+1.74C)

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png

[GaWx]

  On 10/31/2023 at 7:44 PM, snowman19 said:

Nino 3.4 is at the warmest daily reading on OISST since this event started back in March (+1.74C)

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png

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Thanks. But it has still been struggling to rise big picture-wise.  Same with OHC. At one point in late August, 3.4 OISST was over +1.6. Let’s see what happens now. It is a notably strong El Niño no doubt, regardless.

[bluewave]

A -PDO El Niño also has an eastward displaced Aleutian low due to the warm pool and ridge axis NW of Hawaii to the Aleutians. The Aleutians ridge is so strong on the Euro seasonal, that the Aleutian low ends up in New Mexico. The better +PNA on the Euro seasonal could help out with snowfall chances even if the winter is warm. Very strong -PDO warm pool signature NW of Hawaii regardless of what the actual PDO value is. 

 

 

[snowman19]

Zero chance of this Nino ever becoming a Modoki. Another wishcast fantasy fail from JB. Bust-a-Rama:

[brooklynwx99]

  On 10/31/2023 at 8:15 PM, snowman19 said:

Zero chance of this Nino ever becoming a Modoki. Another wishcast fantasy fail from JB. Bust-a-Rama:
 

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the SST anomalies are still projected to move westward. not going to be Modoki, but it’s still becoming a basin wide event

[mitchnick]

  On 10/31/2023 at 8:15 PM, snowman19 said:

Zero chance of this Nino ever becoming a Modoki. Another wishcast fantasy fail from JB. Bust-a-Rama:
 

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What does that guy know...he's just a kid!

[mitchnick]

Tick, tick, tick go the seconds before someone posts the November Cansips.

[GaWx]

  On 10/31/2023 at 7:27 PM, Terpeast said:

Right, if I remember correctly 18-19 wasn’t that warm up here. So it’s bit of a mixed signal and kind of a wash. If I adjusted 63-64 a few degrees warmer, though, it’s a weak mild signal here. 

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 Looking at the three non-cold non-strong +IOD autumn El Niño winters 1994-5, 2006-7, and 2018-9, all had a +NAO and either a +AO or neutral AO vs the -AO/-NAO of 1963-4. A neutral or -NAO/-AO would probably make a big difference.

 Regarding -AO, today’s Euro Weeklies weaken the SPV even more in Dec than yesterday’s with an ensemble mean 60N 10 mb wind dipping way down to 23 m/s (vs 34 m/s normal for mid Dec). To show this that far out in time is quite notable. The % of members with a Dec major SSW rose from yesterdays ~10% to today’s ~18%:

[Terpeast]

Yeah, the PDO took a step back into the negative range, but I think it's only temporary. 

After a warming trend, the Okhotsk Sea is cooling again (circled below):

 

And a broad N Pac trough with a healthy aleutian low is on the way (and it's no longer October):

 

Still out in the fantasy range after the back and forth battle between Aleutian troughing and ridging, but we may see the troughing reinforced by a new trough moving off NE Asia into the pac. 

 

Going to be interesting to see how this plays out. PDO is likely to bounce in the -1.3 to -0.3 range before stagnating towards neutral as the nino takes hold.