El Nino 2023-2024

[so_whats_happening]

Im not sure what constitutes a good snowfall cover season over another but we have seen buildup decent since the beginning of October to be just below average currently. As for sea ice the Pacific side and CAA is suffering a little but the Atlantic front is surprisingly strong right now. 

https://cryospherecomputing.com/

Edit: you can see where the ridging has been most of the summer which seems to be where some of the anomalous ice deficit has shown up with the re-freeze.

[snowman19]

Im not sure what constitutes a good snowfall cover season over another but we have seen buildup decent since the beginning of October to be just below average currently. As for sea ice the Pacific side and CAA is suffering a little but the Atlantic front is surprisingly strong right now. 
https://cryospherecomputing.com/

That one is different from the SAI obviously, which Judah has been pessimistic about

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

That one is different from the SAI obviously, which Judah has been pessimistic about

Because that shows anomalies not an index so yes they are different.

[GaWx]

The OHC anomaly has finally been rewarming recently although only gradually to just over +1.0 C, i.e. nothing to write home about and still well below the mid June and late August peaks:

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t know how the NAM/AO is going to play out. IMO, all the record volcanic water vapor from Hunga Tonga that has infiltrated the stratosphere is going to play some role. I can’t imagine it not. The question is what?? If you follow Judah’s SAI Siberian snowcover buildup (I know you don’t) and I’m totally indifferent, but that looks like it’s not going to be optimistic at all for -AO. Larry Cosgrove follows arctic sea ice and that also looks well below normal too. I think the high solar flux/solar max is definitely going to play a role, as is the -QBO too, so some conflicting signals. Wait and see now I guess

 I follow the SAI and it has since 2014 actually been a reverse indicator of the winter AO vs what it used to indicate. So, if the trend of the last 9 years were to continue into the winter of 2023-4, the AO may actually end up negative despite the lower than average SAI so far this month. Also, we still don’t have the final 2023 SAI. I hope it stays below average based on what has occurred since 2014.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Im not sure what constitutes a good snowfall cover season over another but we have seen buildup decent since the beginning of October to be just below average currently. As for sea ice the Pacific side and CAA is suffering a little but the Atlantic front is surprisingly strong right now. 

https://cryospherecomputing.com/

Edit: you can see where the ridging has been most of the summer which seems to be where some of the anomalous ice deficit has shown up with the re-freeze.

I’ve mentioned this a couple of times here or there, but my personal research on that shows that it’s really the magnitude of the delta recovery more so than the scalar value or observation of cryosphere, during the 45 days of October 15 to December. That correlates to favorable weather patterns over our side of the hemisphere as we get deeper into the heart of winner.  Keeping in mind, there are no 1::1. correlations out there 

[Terpeast]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The re-drop on the WCS PDO chart continues and it was at -0.81 yesterday after hitting a high of ~-0.15 on 10/21. The momentum will probably take it down at least to ~-1.00. The drop over the last week is no surprise following the tremendous 20 day rise of 2.45 from way down at -2.60. This is a correction of sorts. What I’ll be watching for is where equilibrium is reached and ends the current drop. Hopefully this won’t be much below -1.00 and it resumes a rise, which is supported by the current strong El Niño. Just a reminder: the NOAA monthlies have been more negative than what these WCS charts have been showing. NOAA daily is probably ~~-1.25 to -1.50 now:

 

Yeah, it's a slight correction due to slight ridging W and NW of Hawaii:

 

But broad troughing will quickly return to that area within 3 days:

And will continue into the next week:

So yeah, the PDO might bounce in the 0 to -1 range for a while with some back and forth as nino influence starts to establish itself over the next couple of months. It may even dip to -1.5 on the dailies but I don't expect it to go that much lower.

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Im not sure what constitutes a good snowfall cover season over another but we have seen buildup decent since the beginning of October to be just below average currently. As for sea ice the Pacific side and CAA is suffering a little but the Atlantic front is surprisingly strong right now. 

We are currently running at levels close to this time last year.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html

 

[snowman19]

The OHC anomaly has finally been rewarming recently although only gradually to just over +1.0 C, i.e. nothing to write home about and still well below the mid June and late August peaks:

Once the DWKW has time to do its dirty work, it’s going to rise further

[snowman19]

I’ve found that +AMO also promotes blocking and posted about this last week or so. 
The mismatch between AO and NAO, as [mention=882]GaWx[/mention] alluded to just means we need to look at the whole hemisphere to see the position & orientation of blocking, not just look at the numerical indices. In my opinion
In fact, even though I'm still waiting for the November model runs, I'm more confident about this winter that I'm starting to write my oulook now.

The +AMO aside, what do you make of the total lack of a tripole signature? We have had +AMO with a tripole signature in the past, however, this fall, it’s been totally non existent. The research has shown a strong correlation with the New Foundland cold pool/tripole and subsequent -NAO. We have had a strong New Foundland to Europe warm pool thus far

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The +AMO aside, what do you make of the total lack of a tripole signature? We have had +AMO with a tripole signature in the past, however, this fall, it’s been totally non existent. The research has shown a strong correlation with the New Foundland cold pool/tripole and subsequent -NAO. We have had a strong New Foundland to Europe warm pool thus far

I'm not sure it matters much anymore. If there's a playbook that needs to be thrown out with CC, I think this would be in it.

Of course I could be wrong. For tripole related stuff, I would listen to what Chuck has to say. He has this special method that served him well, and he's predicting the NAO to average neutral this winter.

[GaWx]

 The CFS ONI forecasted peak has been bouncing back recently and is now back up to ~+1.73/+1.75 for NDJ/DJF, vs +1.59/+1.56 in NDJ/DJF as of 10-14+ days ago. The Jan 3.4 forecast is now back up to ~+1.98, which is near its latest forecast for Nino 3. For Jan, it now has 1+2 (which it has been way too cool with for many months) at ~+1.25 and Nino 4 at ~+1.1.

 So looking strictly at anomalies, the latest CFS has a cross between an EP and CP El Niño this winter.

 

Latest CFS forecast of ONI: peak +1.75 DJF

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, it's a slight correction due to slight ridging W and NW of Hawaii:

 

But broad troughing will quickly return to that area within 3 days:

And will continue into the next week:

So yeah, the PDO might bounce in the 0 to -1 range for a while with some back and forth as nino influence starts to establish itself over the next couple of months. It may even dip to -1.5 on the dailies but I don't expect it to go that much lower.

Good stuff. Thanks for the insight.

[Itryatgolf70]

53 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I'm not sure it matters much anymore. If there's a playbook that needs to be thrown out with CC, I think this would be in it.

Of course I could be wrong. For tripole related stuff, I would listen to what Chuck has to say. He has this special method that served him well, and he's predicting the NAO to average neutral this winter.

If the NAO averages neutral, we would want to see two possibilities imo. Either AO  be pretty negative or pacific be favorable to deliver cold east of the rockies. Different year, different set of possibilities 

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The CFS ONI forecasted peak has been bouncing back recently and is now back up to ~+1.73/+1.75 for NDJ/DJF, vs +1.59/+1.56 in NDJ/DJF as of 10-14+ days ago. The Jan 3.4 forecast is now back up to ~+1.98, which is near its latest forecast for Nino 3. For Jan, it now has 1+2 (which it has been way too cool with for many months) at ~+1.25 and Nino 4 at ~+1.1.

 So looking strictly at anomalies, the latest CFS has a cross between an EP and CP El Niño this winter.

 

Latest CFS forecast of ONI: peak +1.75 DJF

Looks good to me.

[binbisso]

I have a question. Does it even matter at this point if region 3.4 goes over 2.0 tri monthly? The earliest that could happen would be early February. Isn't there a lag. Right now oni Is high end  moderate. Shouldn't seasonal  forecasters look for analogs using where oni is now?

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The +AMO aside, what do you make of the total lack of a tripole signature? We have had +AMO with a tripole signature in the past, however, this fall, it’s been totally non existent. The research has shown a strong correlation with the New Foundland cold pool/tripole and subsequent -NAO. We have had a strong New Foundland to Europe warm pool thus far

It was looking like it was trying to develop a month or so ago as Hurricane activity caused upwelling just south and east of Newfoundland. I was thinking that would continue or even expand somewhat but...

    There has been what appears to be some correlation. I'm thinking it has more to do with the 50-50, of which as we know, can assist the -NAO.  Last Winter is an example for NA Blocking with no cold pool. So, that would suggest possibly no correlation to the NAO. 

  

      

[Chinook]

This upcoming storm is like a vacuum for Europe. This will be a highly negative NAO but the CPC web site says it will only be -1

[Greg]

1979-1980 Winter: Predominately a subtropical jet vs the polar jet stream year. As some on the board have illuded to a more active subtropical jet stream potential this coming winter season.

 

[bluewave]

Looks like the CFS will end up winning the October Nino 3.4 forecast vs the Euro and the dynamical average. October is on track to finish around +1.6. This is right where the CFS forecasted it to be. The Euro was way too high from the forecast issued last month. The dynamical average was also too high at +1.83. 
 

OISST…25 OCT…+1.6….18 OCT….+1.6….11 OCT…+1.5…4 OCT…+1.5

OCT Nino 3.4 forecast issued in September 

CFS……………….…+1.60

ECMWF……………+2.03

Dynamical avg….+1.83

 

[GaWx]

 The extended Euro ensemble has consistently for many days been forecasting a stronger than average strength SPV in Nov (peaking Nov 11th in near record high territory) followed by a weakening SPV to near neutral late in Nov.

 For the last week or so, it has also been forecasting the weakening to then progress to a significantly below average strength SPV by mid Dec, which implies a good shot at a -AO  then along with a better than average potential in mid Dec for an SSW. But keep in mind that sudden SSWs are uncommon in Dec as peak season doesn’t even start til mid Jan. So, this could very well end up as a -AO/weaker than average SPV without an SSW, which would still be a cold signal for the E US especially if a -NAO could somehow accompany it:

[roardog]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The extended Euro ensemble has consistently for many days been forecasting a stronger than average strength SPV in Nov (peaking Nov 11th in near record high territory) followed by a weakening SPV to near neutral late in Nov.

 For the last week or so, it has also been forecasting the weakening to then progress to a significantly below average strength SPV by mid Dec, which implies a good shot at a -AO  then along with a better than average potential in mid Dec for an SSW. But keep in mind that sudden SSWs are uncommon in Dec as peak season doesn’t even start til mid Jan. So, this could very well end up as a -AO/weaker than average SPV without an SSW, which would still be a cold signal for the E US especially if a -NAO could somehow accompany it:

I have never really followed these forecasts from the models. How accurate are these usually? 

[so_whats_happening]

7 minutes ago, roardog said:

I have never really followed these forecasts from the models. How accurate are these usually? 

Fairly good, it is not recommended to go past hr 240 though. 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, roardog said:

I have never really followed these forecasts from the models. How accurate are these usually? 

One of the main caveats with them is if the stratosphere and troposphere are coupled. The NAO and AO are forecast to remain slightly negative over the same period. So probably not much coupling going on right now. 

[so_whats_happening]

Did from mid month to the most recent plot. Looks like we finally are getting a more pronounced cooling look in the WPAC. We are shifting the anomalies located around the dateline eastward and having less of a cool pool under 3.4. Still nothing major to speak of as of yet but this does help explain the slight uptick in Upper ocean anomalies @GaWx had posted about the other day. I do not believe we will go over the last two peaks we saw but this will allow for warmer waters to spread out a bit more again giving that probable push close to 2C through November for 3.4. Still not seeing it go much above that as we move forward and I think we would need an East propagating WWB event to occur in time if something can manifest itself to push north of that 2C mark.

[so_whats_happening]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

One of the main caveats with them is if the stratosphere and troposphere are coupled. The NAO and AO are forecast to remain slightly negative over the same period. So probably not much coupling going on right now. 

This seems to be an ongoing theme of late the troposphere kinda doing it's own thing from time to time and the Strat trying to couple but failing do so more often then not.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

I have never really followed these forecasts from the models. How accurate are these usually? 

 I can’t assess personally how the Euro Weeklies have done in general because I just started following their SPV forecasts last Feb. and I only restarted following them ~two weeks ago. They did do well last Feb. Here’s the oldest one I saved (2/6/23), which forecasted the mid Feb major SSW impressively well along with the SPV remaining quite weak into March instead of recovering much:

 

 The following graph of Feb 10th forecasts during 2003-22 for 60-90N suggests that the extended portion of the Euro Weeklies likely does much better with the stratosphere vs the troposphere. Note the 60%+ performance (two darkest greens) for above 100 mb (the stratosphere) through the entire six weeks of Weeklies vs significantly worse performance in the mid to lower troposphere (250 mb and lower levels). The explanation is that the strat is easier to predict because of it being so far above the surface, where there isn’t nearly as much atmospheric chaos:

 

 Thus, the recent EPS forecasts for a weaker than avg SPV in mid Dec should probably not be dismissed as mere extreme speculation. If we are actually able to get a solid -AO in Dec, then that obviously would increase the chance that the forecasts calling for a mild E US Dec would be out to lunch. I’d be a bit nervous right now if I had a mild E US Dec.
 

 Regarding El Niño Decembers since 1950, these 8 had a -AO: 1958, 1963, 1968, 1969, 1976, 1987, 2002, and 2009. So, about 1/3 of them had a -AO (near climo % chance for all Decembers). Which of these 8 were cool to cold in the bulk of the E US? All but 1987, which was slightly AN. Explanation: its -AO was only weak (weakest of the 8) and it was the only one of the 8 without a -NAO (it was weakly +NAO).

[Itryatgolf70]

52 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I can’t assess personally how the Euro Weeklies have done in general because I just started following their SPV forecasts last Feb. and I only restarted following them ~two weeks ago. They did do well last Feb. Here’s the oldest one I saved (2/6/23), which forecasted the mid Feb major SSW impressively well along with the SPV remaining quite weak into March instead of recovering much:

 

 The following graph of Feb 10th forecasts during 2003-22 for 60-90N suggests that the extended portion of the Euro Weeklies likely does much better with the stratosphere vs the troposphere. Note the 60%+ performance (two darkest greens) for above 100 mb (the stratosphere) through the entire six weeks of Weeklies vs significantly worse performance in the mid to lower troposphere (250 mb and lower levels). The explanation is that the strat is easier to predict because of it being so far above the surface, where there isn’t nearly as much atmospheric chaos:

 

 Thus, the recent EPS forecasts for a weaker than avg SPV in mid Dec should probably not be dismissed as mere extreme speculation. If we are actually able to get a solid -AO in Dec, then that obviously would increase the chance that the forecasts calling for a mild E US Dec would be out to lunch. I’d be a bit nervous right now if I had a mild E US Dec.
 

 Regarding El Niño Decembers since 1950, these 8 had a -AO: 1958, 1963, 1968, 1969, 1976, 1987, 2002, and 2009. So, about 1/3 of them had a -AO (near climo % chance for all Decembers). Which of these 8 were cool to cold in the bulk of the E US? All but 1987, which was slightly AN. Explanation: its -AO was only weak (weakest of the 8) and it was the only one of the 8 without a -NAO (it was weakly +NAO).

1987-88 was overall a decent winter, especially jan and Feb. Niño also I believe. I just hope its colder than people believe for this winter

[snowman19]

[snowman19]