El Nino 2023-2024

[pasnownut]

16 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea if I remember correctly things hit a wall around 6/7.

Thats a fair point.  Signals looked to be headed to the promise land, but never got outta the desert meteorologically speaking 

[snowman19]

Must be those ever elusive, fake WWBs and +AAM spikes again. We’re just dreaming it, it’s not really happening, figments of our imaginations…..  @brooklynwx99 100%. The composite you posted fits El Niño (+ENSO), November, with +AAM and MJO Phase 8 perfectly. Sorry, folks, that’s not a La Niña like response at all
 

[Itryatgolf70]

One of JB favorite saying is "build the ridge deliver the fridge" lol

[brooklynwx99]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

And yet we are getting a classic -PNA with near record warmth in the East. So a continuation of competing influences not letting the El Niño dominate. 
 

warm Novembers are quite common when there's decent Nino forcing. I also expect December to be quite warm with troughs diving into the west

 

[roardog]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

warm Novembers are quite common when there's decent Nino forcing. I also expect December to be quite warm with troughs diving into the west

 

That composite looks like it has a low west of Alaska while the current look has a huge Nina like ridge. 

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

Nino 3.4 is struggling to get much past the 1.6 to 1.7 range on the dailies with the upper ocean heat so much lower than other strong El Niños. So the  October daily peak was similar to September. Most El Niños show a decent jump from September to October. So the Euro seasonal is going to have one of its biggest misses on record for an October average forecast of 2.03. The CFS is actually going to be closer to the mark for its October forecast of 1.60. The current monthly average from OISST is 1.53. 

 

ECMWF	2.03

 

NCEP CFSv2	1.60

Current October OISST average 1.53.

 

The Euro October monthly forecast error continues to grow with the daily Nino 3.4 back down below +1.6. 

 

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro October monthly forecast error continues to grow with the daily Nino 3.4 back down below +1.6. 

 

I would be pretty shocked if this event has a trimonthly period at or over +2.0C. perhaps a daily reading at that level, but three months? the ECMWF is going to bust horribly

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I would be pretty shocked if this event has a trimonthly period at or over +2.0C. perhaps a daily reading at that level, but three months? the ECMWF is going to bust horribly

The upper ocean heat content pattern along with the weaker WWBs never matched previous super El Niño years. So the more aggressive models were just showing excessive momentum. 

[griteater]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I would be pretty shocked if this event has a trimonthly period at or over +2.0C. perhaps a daily reading at that level, but three months? the ECMWF is going to bust horribly

 The Australian BoM says "hold my beer"

 

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, griteater said:

 The Australian BoM says "hold my beer"

 

 

 

gotta say, if we top out at +1.7-1.9C with west-leaning forcing and a MEI in the +1.0-1.4C range, those weenie-ish CanSIPS depictions might not be as ridiculous. I'm feeling pretty good about things right now. you should be psyched where you're at

[griteater]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

gotta say, if we top out at +1.7-1.9C with west-leaning forcing and a MEI in the +1.0-1.4C range, those weenie-ish CanSIPS depictions might not be as ridiculous. I'm feeling pretty good about things right now. you should be psyched where you're at

Ha, I think at a minimum there will be some interesting and good periods for many from the Southern Plains to Northeast, and down to the SE (not full winter, but some good periods).  Bar is pretty low down here of course.  As a forecast, I'll go with 1 classic Mid-Atlantic KU at a minumum (wintry mix for me) and 1 good southern slider...and call it a winter.

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Must be those ever elusive, fake WWBs and +AAM spikes again. We’re just dreaming it, it’s not really happening, figments of our imaginations…..  @brooklynwx99 100%. The composite you posted fits El Niño (+ENSO), November, with +AAM and MJO Phase 8 perfectly. Sorry, folks, that’s not a La Niña like response at all
 

Fyi, that 850 anomaly map is dated 10/15. That burst has come and gone and we see what happened to 3.4.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

warm Novembers are quite common when there's decent Nino forcing. I also expect December to be quite warm with troughs diving into the west

 

So this is why we have a classic snowy winter connection to mild Novembers? I have noticed this is often the case, but it often comes after cool Octobers:

 

1957-58

1960-61

1963-64

1966-67

1977-78

1993-94

 

[brooklynwx99]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Fyi, that 850 anomaly map is dated 10/15. That burst has come and gone and we see what happened to 3.4.

yes, we likely do have some residual westerly winds, but nothing nearly as strong as the WWB we just saw. so we'll probably see some slight strengthening through November, but nothing that'll really blow this up

[griteater]

So why is the MEI lagging behind the ONI when compared to other oncoming El Ninos?

 

Here are the MEI (Aug-Sep) <and> ONI (Jul-Sep) values for this year, and 3 previous oncoming El Ninos:

2023: 0.6 (MEI) / 1.3 (ONI)

2015: 2.1 (MEI) / 1.9 (ONI)

2009: 0.4 (MEI) / 0.6 (ONI)

2002: 0.7 (MEI) / 0.9 (ONI)

 

Now here are the 5 variables that comprise the MEI calculation (Aug-Sep bi-monthly correlations shown).  In simple terms, the more closely the actual anomalies align to each of these 5 ocean / atmosphere variables, the higher the MEI value will be.

 

I compared each of the 5 variables to the reanalysis maps for Aug-Sep of this year.  In order to match what is used in the MEI calculations, I used the JRA-55 reanalysis against a climatology base of 1980-2018 for the first 4 variables.  The last variable, OLR, was unavailable in JRA-55, so I used NCEP/NCAR R1 instead.

 

On the images, I have marked in thick black lines where the largest discrepancies have occurred between the MEI correlation maps and the actual reanalysis maps for this year (Aug-Sep in this case).

It looks like the largest discrepancies are on the 10m Zonal Wind Anomaly (U Wind) and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) maps.  The closest match to the MEI correlation maps is on the 10m Meridional Wind Anomaly (V Wind) map. 

 

What does it all mean?  I'd say that is up for interpretation, but clearly, the zonal wind and OLR patterns need to evolve closer to the stock El Nino anomaly patterns in order for the MEI value to become more robust.

[raindancewx]

I'm pretty convinced that the OLR is screwed up because of the extra moisture / cloudiness around globally from the volcano.

I'm 6'3" and my clothes are designed to fit my physique. Imagine if I woke up tomorrow and I was 7'2" and I had to come up with an outfit from my wardrobe. Now imagine that only my legs got longer and the rest of me remained the same.

OLR and a lot of the other variables are based on historical averages that are incoherent at the moment. Especially since the +15% extra water vapor globally isn't distributed evenly across all zones.

Imagine if the moisture content was distributed like this:

NW: X---> 0.85x

NE:  X-----> 1.50x

SW: X --------> 1.15x

SE: X-------------> 1.1x

That's a 15% net increase from 4x to 4.6x where x is the 30-year water content in each zone. 

[chubbs]

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I'm pretty convinced that the OLR is screwed up because of the extra moisture / cloudiness around globally from the volcano.

I'm 6'3" and my clothes are designed to fit my physique. Imagine if I woke up tomorrow and I was 7'2" and I had to come up with an outfit from my wardrobe. Now imagine that only my legs got longer and the rest of me remained the same.

OLR and a lot of the other variables are based on historical averages that are incoherent at the moment. Especially since the +15% extra water vapor globally isn't distributed evenly across all zones.

Imagine if the moisture content was distributed like this:

NW: X---> 0.85x

NE:  X-----> 1.50x

SW: X --------> 1.15x

SE: X-------------> 1.1x

That's a 15% net increase from 4x to 4.6x where x is the 30-year water content in each zone. 

The water from the volcano went into the stratosphere not the troposphere. Plus the lifetime of water vapor in the troposphere is much shorter than the stratosphere, on the order of a week or two. Any water from the volcano that went into the troposphere is long gone. Increased water in the troposphere this year vs last year is a feedback to increased ocean and atmospheric temperatures.

In the long-term, increased water vapor in the atmosphere from global warming swamps the volcano. The cold stratosphere can't hold much water. 99% of atmospheric water vapor is in the troposphere which now holds roughly 10% more water due to global warming ( 1.3C x 7% more water per degree warming).

 

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, griteater said:

What does it all mean?  I'd say that is up for interpretation, but clearly, the zonal wind and OLR patterns need to evolve closer to the stock El Nino anomaly patterns in order for the MEI value to become more robust.

The Western Pacific was the warmest on record for a developing El Niño in August and September. This resulted in lower pressures than usual. The lack of a strong pressure gradient between east and west resulted in some of the weakest WWBs for a developing El Niño. So the record WPAC warm pool was still in a more Nina-like mode. It makes sense that the MEI was much lower than the ONI.
 

 

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Western Pacific was the warmest on record for a developing El Niño in August and September. This resulted in lower pressures than usual. The lack of a strong pressure gradient between east and west resulted in some of the weakest WWBs for a developing El Niño. So the record WPAC warm pool was still in a more Nina-like mode. It makes sense that the MEI was much lower than the ONI.
 

 

 

What are the longitudinal and latitudinal boundaries of the area in the W Pacific that you follow? I follow 120-160E, 15N-15S:

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl?ntype=1&var=SST&level=2000&lat1=15&lat2=-15&lon1=120&lon2=160&iseas=0&mon1=0&mon2=11&iarea=0&typeout=1&Submit=Create+Timeseries
 

 According to the table generated, it doesn’t have either Aug or Sep of 2023 or the combo of both as the warmest on record for a developing Nino:

Year…….…….Aug…………..Sep

2023……….27.959……….28.096

2018………..27.946……….28.170

2014…………27.953……….28.229

2009…………28.098..…….28.327

 

 So, per this, the average of Aug and Sep in 2023 was cooler than that for 2018, 2014, and 2009. This is especially the case vs 2009, when the globe was notably cooler. Aug-Sep of 2023 came in 0.185C cooler than that for 2009. So, on a relative basis to global temperatures, Aug-Sep of 2023 was significantly cooler than Aug-Sep of 2009 in the area that I monitor to the N of Australia.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Thats a fair point.  Signals looked to be headed to the promise land, but never got outta the desert meteorologically speaking 

March did get there, but most areas still get porked by some nuances with respect to the evolution of that big surface low.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Western Pacific was the warmest on record for a developing El Niño in August and September. This resulted in lower pressures than usual. The lack of a strong pressure gradient between east and west resulted in some of the weakest WWBs for a developing El Niño. So the record WPAC warm pool was still in a more Nina-like mode. It makes sense that the MEI was much lower than the ONI.
 

 

 

Mind meld...heh...funny you say this and you will see why when my outlook comes out.

Same page.

[Terpeast]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

What are the longitudinal and latitudinal boundaries of the area in the W Pacific that you follow? I follow 120-160E, 15N-15S:

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl?ntype=1&var=SST&level=2000&lat1=15&lat2=-15&lon1=120&lon2=160&iseas=0&mon1=0&mon2=11&iarea=0&typeout=1&Submit=Create+Timeseries
 

 According to the table generated, it doesn’t have either Aug or Sep of 2023 or the combo of both as the warmest on record for a developing Nino:

Year…….…….Aug…………..Sep

2023……….27.959……….28.096

2018………..27.946……….28.170

2014…………27.953……….28.229

2009…………28.098..…….28.327

 

 So, per this, the average of Aug and Sep in 2023 was cooler than that for 2018, 2014, and 2009. This is especially the case vs 2009, when the globe was notably cooler. Aug-Sep of 2023 came in 0.185C cooler than that for 2009. So, on a relative basis to global temperatures, Aug-Sep of 2023 was significantly cooler than Aug-Sep of 2009 in the area that I monitor to the N of Australia.

I noticed that, too. I think you and I are looking at the same area, and bluewave may be looking at a different or smaller area

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I'm pretty convinced that the OLR is screwed up because of the extra moisture / cloudiness around globally from the volcano.

I'm 6'3" and my clothes are designed to fit my physique. Imagine if I woke up tomorrow and I was 7'2" and I had to come up with an outfit from my wardrobe. Now imagine that only my legs got longer and the rest of me remained the same.

OLR and a lot of the other variables are based on historical averages that are incoherent at the moment. Especially since the +15% extra water vapor globally isn't distributed evenly across all zones.

Imagine if the moisture content was distributed like this:

NW: X---> 0.85x

NE:  X-----> 1.50x

SW: X --------> 1.15x

SE: X-------------> 1.1x

That's a 15% net increase from 4x to 4.6x where x is the 30-year water content in each zone. 

No doubt that there is some truth to what you are saying, as you always make great points. I am sure where is some impact due to the extra moisture, but I am also confident that the west PAC warmth is dragging the forcing west to a degree. That said, no one expects a cold winter with wall-to-wall modoki forcing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/22/2023 at 11:08 AM, raindancewx said:

Here is 2002 & 2009 as a composite for October in the US. I'll keep asking this - if the weather never actually matches what those VP maps show for forcing....who cares where the forcing is? We're getting pretty close to winter. Do you really want to ride years as your main analogs that have not worked all Summer? 2009 is pretty warm in November and I think March could be fairly similar, but it's at best a C- type of match.

Oct 25-31 looks fairly cold in the NW and warm in the SE, so we should end up with the pretty traditional October -PDO correlation, where MN to Maine is the warmest spot nationally. The PDO is still going to finish very negative for the month.

Nino 1.2 in October tends to lead changes in the PDO in Nov-Apr. So the PDO should be weakening, but it's not a quick process. It moves in fits and starts. The good news is the -PDO has virtually no correlation to US temps in December. As the warmth of Nino 1.2 moves West, the degradation of the -PDO should slow if anything. I expect it get to 0 to -1 by December and then fluctuate in that band until late winter/March when it may re-strengthen or go weakly positive.

This El Nino is still only "officially" around +1.3C on Tropical Tidbits. Not even sure anymore that we'll top 1.5C for winter. We're hanging out at 28.1-28.2C on the weeklies after reaching 28.3C for a hot minute in September on the weeklies. CPC uses 26.63C as the DJF baseline...and I'm sure it'll be weakening quite quickly by late winter. I think the raw SST number for Nino 3.4 October may come in below September.

 06SEP2023     23.6 2.9     27.0 2.2     28.3 1.6     29.7 1.1
 13SEP2023     23.3 2.6     27.1 2.2     28.3 1.6     29.8 1.1
 20SEP2023     23.5 2.8     27.0 2.1     28.3 1.7     29.9 1.2
 27SEP2023     23.5 2.8     27.0 2.0     28.1 1.5     29.8 1.1
 04OCT2023     23.4 2.6     26.8 1.9     28.2 1.5     29.8 1.2
 11OCT2023     23.2 2.3     27.1 2.1     28.2 1.5     30.0 1.3

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

Well, its not just about location of the forcing, but also the strength.....I know the 2009 el Nino was appreciably weaker at the point and given that modoki forcing is warm in the fall, that may have had something to do with it. I would need to delve into it more as far as location/distribution of anomalies, but I wouldn't expect it to be as cold in an absolute sense even given identical circumstances due to CC.

Looking up the MJO data may be helpful.

Would be interesting to dig into this if anyone has time...I have work and the outlook right now.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

What are the longitudinal and latitudinal boundaries of the area in the W Pacific that you follow? I follow 120-160E, 15N-15S:

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl?ntype=1&var=SST&level=2000&lat1=15&lat2=-15&lon1=120&lon2=160&iseas=0&mon1=0&mon2=11&iarea=0&typeout=1&Submit=Create+Timeseries
 

 According to the table generated, it doesn’t have either Aug or Sep of 2023 or the combo of both as the warmest on record for a developing Nino:

Year…….…….Aug…………..Sep

2023……….27.959……….28.096

2018………..27.946……….28.170

2014…………27.953……….28.229

2009…………28.098..…….28.327

 

 So, per this, the average of Aug and Sep in 2023 was cooler than that for 2018, 2014, and 2009. This is especially the case vs 2009, when the globe was notably cooler. Aug-Sep of 2023 came in 0.185C cooler than that for 2009. So, on a relative basis to global temperatures, Aug-Sep of 2023 was significantly cooler than Aug-Sep of 2009 in the area that I monitor to the N of Australia.

I wanted to include the historic SSTs east of Japan since the subtropical Pacific during the summer can have a large influence on the circulation patterns across the entire basin. So to encompass the entirety of the Western Pacific, I created a custom SST index from the equator to 40N. This tied in the important section east of Japan which helped to drive the deep -PDO circulation and worked  in opposition to the developing El Niño in August and September.
 

Wider Western Pacific basin SSTs north of Equator in Northern Hemispheric summer during developing El Niño years 

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl?ntype=1&var=SST&level=2000&lat1=40&lat2=0&lon1=110&lon2=180&iseas=1&mon1=7&mon2=8&iarea=0&typeout=1&Submit=Create+Timeseries

2023…27.81

2015….27.38

2014….27.64

2009….27.44

2006….27.41

2004….27.24

2002….27.25

1997…..27.00

1994….27.37

1991…..27.20

 

[Terpeast]

Powerful rex block in place with troughing off Japan having an impact on SSTs in the N Pac, and the PDO. 

 

North Pac SST anomaly changes over the last 15 days:

 

This is reinforcing the recent PDO rise from extreme negative to neutral territory, which is a sign that the atmosphere may decouple from the PDO going into winter. 

Of course, as I said would happen before, going from extreme -PDO to a decoupled PDO would be rough for us for a while with strong -PNA episodes. Like the one happening now, giving record 80 degree warmth over the eastern seaboard. This is a necessary evil to rip the bandaid off. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The 80 degree ridge isn't from the Pacific, ridge over AK and low north of Hawaii is a cold pattern, most of the time. It's a rogue SE ridge, like March 2023.

[snowman19]

I would be pretty shocked if this event has a trimonthly period at or over +2.0C. perhaps a daily reading at that level, but three months? the ECMWF is going to bust horribly

I would not be for several reasons: New downwelling Kelvin wave initiating which will reinforce warmth. It’s already rewarming before this has even begun happening. New DWKW is from stationary westerly wind (WWB) stress. No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency Nino forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening, not weakening.

1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (aka the El Niño) now dominates global forcing. Convection is dead over the IO and Maritime Continent from Nino/++IOD forced subsidence

2. Continued walker cell coupling as the positive IOD intensifies

3. Current and further upcoming westerly wind stress over the antimeridian will continue to reinforce El Niño

4. Aforementioned westerly wind stress has already initiated a new downwelling Kelvin wave which will traverse the Pacific thermocline and reinforce warmth off of Peru

5. Westerly wind stress over the antimeridian is stationary with zero signs of eastward propagation

All of these are consistent with El Niño and consistent with one which is strengthening, not weakening. Every Nino zone has already resumed warming and this is before the new downwelling Kelvin wave has contributed….

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The 80 degree ridge isn't from the Pacific, ridge over AK and low north of Hawaii is a cold pattern, most of the time. It's a rogue SE ridge, like March 2023.

In the winter, yes. But it's still early-mid fall, so the wavelengths are different this time of year. I think you and bluewave were alluding to the correlation flip in October a couple of weeks ago, and I think this is a good example.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

In the winter, yes. But it's still early-mid fall, so the wavelengths are different this time of year. I think you and bluewave were alluding to the correlation flip in October a couple of weeks ago, and I think this is a good example.

Even in the Summer a ridge over AK produces cold the EC. You can say it's little south and +NAO amped too, but most of the time a Pacific like this will deliver cold. The low north of Hawaii is in the perfect place too, albeit not very strong.