El Nino 2023-2024

[Terpeast]

24 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here is your November Itinerary

 

10/31 (Aftn): CANSIPS Update on Twitter

10/31 (Evening): CANSIPS Update on Tropical Tidbits

11/3: Aug-Oct ENSO ONI & ENSO RONI Updates from NOAA

11/5: Update of Euro Seasonal Forecast

11/5: ENSO MEIv2 Update from NOAA

11/10: Update of Copernicus C3S Ensemble Seasonal (with this, can also view JMA / Meteo France / UKMet Office updates) 

11/10 to 11/20: Update of JAMSTEC Seasonal

Perfect!

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

When do the November runs come out? Thinking of holding off on my winter outlook till then. Too many moving variables atm

Just got above normal temps, below normal snowfall. If you're wrong, nobody will complain.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just got above normal temps, below normal snowfall. If you're wrong, nobody will complain.

Yeah, true. But if we’re going to have a snowy winter, I want to correctly predict it 

[snowman19]

Nino 1+2 is warming right back up on OISST and CRW….well over +2C again. The models have it staying in the upper +2’s right through January. Regardless of what the atmospheric forcing does or where it migrates, it seems that at least from an oceanic, SST standpoint, this event is bound and determined to stay east-based/EP

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino12.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino12.png

[snowman19]

19 hours ago, griteater said:

From NOAA CPC Weekly MJO Update:
 

Given this look, I don’t think MJO phases 3-6 will be an issue. It’s pretty clear at this point that the El Niño standing wave and the +IOD are going to run the tropical forcing show this winter. The MJO may very well prove to be a non factor the overwhelming majority of the time this winter (typical for strong/super Niños). When there actually is MJO activity it’s probably going to be very weak, fast moving and not in the IO or Maritime Continent 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Nino 1+2 is warming right back up on OISST and CRW….well over +2C again. The models have it staying in the upper +2’s right through January. Regardless of what the atmospheric forcing does or where it migrates, it seems that at least from an oceanic, SST standpoint, this event is bound and determined to stay east-based/EP

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino12.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino12.png

Idk if I'd call Nino 1+2 +2.3C well over 2C, but I  do know that there's a very clear trend on this graph.

[bluewave]

The much lower upper ocean heat is really holding this event back. That weak cold pool from 100-200 meters under 3.4 looks really out of place vs the strongest events. Same goes for the highly anomalous warm pool near and west of the Dateline where a cold pool is supposed to be.

[snowman19]

Idk if I'd call Nino 1+2 +2.3C well over 2C, but I  do know that there's a very clear trend on this graph.

One thing is for certain, it’s not becoming a Modoki no matter how much JB tweets that it is. That ship has sailed

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s a significantly warmer winter temperature version of the 02-03, 09-10, and 14-15, Modoki El Niño forcing west of the Dateline. Even though the PDO is neutral to negative with warmth north of Hawaii, it doesn’t look like the PDO is coupled enough to drive the bus. That strong -EPO +PNA is more +PDO-like. It’s also giving a solid -AO signature. The winter temperatures aren’t nearly as cold as the composite but I am sure that 500 mb look would be better than the last few winters for snowfall. The only colder areas are south of 40N along the East Coast.

 

 

This makes perfect sense to me....no one expects that kind of sustained cold this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

One thing is for certain, it’s not becoming a Modoki no matter how much JB tweets that it is. That ship has sailed

In terms of SST, sure...I don't think that he necessarily means "modoki" in the technical SST sense. 

[bluewave]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This makes perfect sense to me....no one expects that kind of sustained cold this year.

I would take that JMA composite and run since you know the snowfall would be an improvement over the last few winters. This is one year that I really hope the JMA has a clue. I just have to be cautious since it did struggle with its last El Niño forecast in 18-19 even though this event is somewhat better coupled. But we still have that -PDO which I would like to see flip positive or at least become uncoupled. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I would take that JMA composite and run since you know the snowfall would be an improvement over the last few winters. This is one year that I really hope the JMA has a clue. I just have to be cautious since it did struggle with its last El Niño forecast in 18-19 even though this event is somewhat better coupled. But we still have that -PDO which I would like to see flip positive or at least become uncoupled. 

Right...which I think is accounted it for by the modified temps....likely less of an inhibiting factor as the season progresses.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is an interesting graphic that I would like to incorporate into my work....where is 2023 on this? Not sure I entirely understand..

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Nino 1+2 is warming right back up on OISST and CRW….well over +2C again. The models have it staying in the upper +2’s right through January. Regardless of what the atmospheric forcing does or where it migrates, it seems that at least from an oceanic, SST standpoint, this event is bound and determined to stay east-based/EP

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino12.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino12.png

Its basin wide....region 4 is boiling, as well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, Terpeast said:

When do the November runs come out? Thinking of holding off on my winter outlook till then. Too many moving variables atm

I feel like this is my highest confidence outlook since my first one in 2014.

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is an interesting graphic that I would like to incorporate into my work....where is 2023 on this? Not sure I entirely understand..

From the recent ENSO blog post.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/october-2023-el-nino-update-big-cats

So how about peaking at or above 2.0 °C? Forecasters give that around a 3-in-10 chance for November­–January. The climate models have a fairly wide range of potential outcomes—if they were concentrated above 2.0 °C, we’d probably be able to give more confident chances. Also, while there is still a good amount of heat under the surface of the Pacific—this warmer water provides a source to the surface—it’s not quite at the level we’ve seen during previous historically strong El Niños like 1982–83, 1997–98, or 2015–16.

Each dot on this scatterplot shows the subsurface temperature anomaly (difference from the long-term average) in the central tropical Pacific each September (horizontal axis) since 1979 versus the oceanic ENSO conditions the following November–January (vertical axis). The vertical red line show the September 2023 subsurface temperature anomaly. The amount of warmer-than-average water under the surface in September has a strong relationship with the oceanic ENSO conditions later in the year. Previous very strong El Niño events, 1982–83,1997–98, and 2015–16, had more subsurface warm water than 2023. Data from CPC, image by Climate.gov.

This is a small sample of very strong events, though, and the current moderate subsurface temperature certainly doesn’t preclude this event peaking above 2.0 °C. It just contributes to a tempering of the odds.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

From the recent ENSO blog post.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/october-2023-el-nino-update-big-cats

So how about peaking at or above 2.0 °C? Forecasters give that around a 3-in-10 chance for November­–January. The climate models have a fairly wide range of potential outcomes—if they were concentrated above 2.0 °C, we’d probably be able to give more confident chances. Also, while there is still a good amount of heat under the surface of the Pacific—this warmer water provides a source to the surface—it’s not quite at the level we’ve seen during previous historically strong El Niños like 1982–83, 1997–98, or 2015–16.

Each dot on this scatterplot shows the subsurface temperature anomaly (difference from the long-term average) in the central tropical Pacific each September (horizontal axis) since 1979 versus the oceanic ENSO conditions the following November–January (vertical axis). The vertical red line show the September 2023 subsurface temperature anomaly. The amount of warmer-than-average water under the surface in September has a strong relationship with the oceanic ENSO conditions later in the year. Previous very strong El Niño events, 1982–83,1997–98, and 2015–16, had more subsurface warm water than 2023. Data from CPC, image by Climate.gov.

This is a small sample of very strong events, though, and the current moderate subsurface temperature certainly doesn’t preclude this event peaking above 2.0 °C. It just contributes to a tempering of the odds.

 

Thanks; now I understand. This amount of subsurface warmth through September in the past has portended a moderate peak on average...a coupe weak, a couple strong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Lol... 

add that to the list, huh -

Well, obviously its a long shot anyway today, but we did just have one 8 years ago, so a repeat is less likely. 

[snowman19]

From the recent ENSO blog post.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/october-2023-el-nino-update-big-cats

So how about peaking at or above 2.0 °C? Forecasters give that around a 3-in-10 chance for November­–January. The climate models have a fairly wide range of potential outcomes—if they were concentrated above 2.0 °C, we’d probably be able to give more confident chances. Also, while there is still a good amount of heat under the surface of the Pacific—this warmer water provides a source to the surface—it’s not quite at the level we’ve seen during previous historically strong El Niños like 1982–83, 1997–98, or 2015–16.

Each dot on this scatterplot shows the subsurface temperature anomaly (difference from the long-term average) in the central tropical Pacific each September (horizontal axis) since 1979 versus the oceanic ENSO conditions the following November–January (vertical axis). The vertical red line show the September 2023 subsurface temperature anomaly. The amount of warmer-than-average water under the surface in September has a strong relationship with the oceanic ENSO conditions later in the year. Previous very strong El Niño events, 1982–83,1997–98, and 2015–16, had more subsurface warm water than 2023. Data from CPC, image by Climate.gov.

This is a small sample of very strong events, though, and the current moderate subsurface temperature certainly doesn’t preclude this event peaking above 2.0 °C. It just contributes to a tempering of the odds.

 

Correct. The sample size of strong/super Ninos is way too small. Back in May/June we had people saying this event was going to really struggle to even become moderate because of “history”, yet here we are….

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Correct. The sample size of strong/super Ninos is way too small. Back in May/June we had people saying this event was going to really struggle to even become moderate because of “history”, yet here we are….

The most recent MEI update is weak and moderate looks like the current ceiling if we keep seeing these small increases.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Correct. The sample size of strong/super Ninos is way too small. Back in May/June we had people saying this event was going to really struggle to even become moderate because of “history”, yet here we are….

You require a larger sample size to conclude that we need a very warm subsurface to reach super el nino status? I think we have a much better idea of the peak in mid October than we did last spring.

You seem very confident in the ability to if the +IOD to foster continued development of el nino...why not highly anomalous subsurface warmth?

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The most recent MEI update is weak and moderate looks like the current ceiling if we keep seeing these small increases.

 

I'm confident it will end up moderate. I would be surprised of the MEI remained weak...

[George001]

The higher end outcomes (2.2-2.4 ONI peak) are looking much less likely now, but the JAS trimonthly reading was 1.3 ONI. ASO will likely be around 1.5 ONI, so strong is pretty much guaranteed. Even if it doesn’t become super (it still could), there is a good chance it gets up to at least high end strong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, George001 said:

The higher end outcomes (2.2-2.4 ONI peak) are looking much less likely now, but the JAS trimonthly reading was 1.3 ONI. ASO will likely be around 1.5 ONI, so strong is pretty much guaranteed. Even if it doesn’t become super (it still could), there is a good chance it gets up to at least high end strong.

Welcome to June.

[Terpeast]

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The most recent MEI update is weak and moderate looks like the current ceiling if we keep seeing these small increases.

 

We’re still comparing 2023 to other super ninos, which we know isn’t going to happen this year.

I’d replace this with a comparison to the moderate/strong nino cohort. 

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

We’re still comparing 2023 to other super ninos, which we know isn’t going to happen this year.

I’d replace this with a comparison to the moderate/strong nino cohort. 

The blocking just south of Greenland since June has been unprecedented. It’s well ahead of 2012. Just hoping that means we can see a SSW this January like in 2013. I know it’s a small sample size but I can still hope.  Would love to see a repeat of Nemo. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The blocking just south of Greenland since June has been unprecedented. It’s well ahead of 2012. Just hoping that means we can see a SSW this January like in 2013. I know it’s a small sample size but I can still hope.  Would love to see a repeat of Nemo. 
 

I have found that there is a Summer SST correlation to the Winter NAO, so when the atmospheric conditions impact the water, it correlates. 

https://ibb.co/2hCx3xY

The index comes out slightly negative in prediction for this Winter's NAO. 

https://ibb.co/18sCHwq

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I have found that there is a Summer SST correlation to the Winter NAO, so when the atmospheric conditions impact the water, it correlates. 

https://ibb.co/2hCx3xY

The index comes out slightly negative in prediction for this Winter's NAO. 

https://ibb.co/18sCHwq

I meant to ask you about this yesterday, but got tied up.

That jives with my thoughts....I am sure there will be a brutal period with RNA/+NAO mixed in, but it shouldn't dominate the winter, aside from biasing the DM departures positive.

How did it do last year?

And what is the DM predicated value this year?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I meant to ask you about this yesterday, but got tied up.

That jives with my thoughts....I am sure there will be a brutal period with RNA/+NAO mixed in, but it shouldn't dominate the winter, aside from biasing the DM departures positive.

In 09-10 there were some warm periods that mixed in after the big snowfalls. That's the signal I'm getting.. El Nino/-QBO is a strong +10mb signal, which often becomes -AO, but it's been hard for any pattern to be consistent for a while now... it's more likely we'll get +PNA and -NAO/AO periods but they will be transitory, and not accumulate a high anomaly reading, for the Winter overall. 

The predicted value is -0.05, with a 50% chance of SD of 0.54 which makes -0.59 to +0.49 NAO, 50% chance likely. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In 09-10 there were some warm periods that mixed in after the big snowfalls. That's the signal I'm getting.. El Nino/-QBO is a strong +10mb signal, which often becomes -AO, but it's been hard for any pattern to be consistent for a while now... it's more likely we'll get +PNA and -NAO/AO periods but they will be transitory, and not accumulate a high anomaly reading, for the Winter overall. 

The predicted value is -0.05, with a 50% chance of SD of 0.54 which makes -0.59 to +0.49 NAO, 50% chance likely. 

Total agreement.

I think that has to do with @Typhoon Tip's working theory about CC making the globe more prone to fast flow.