El Nino 2023-2024

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Remember, the whole east based vs west based argument is moot if we get a -PDO. Modoki El Niño’s are warm with a -PDO that has a warm pool north of Hawaii and Aleutians ridge. The sample size is small but the 94-95 and 04-05 Modkis were warm.
 

2009-10 was similar, except the polar domain (nao) was negative while 04-05 & 94-95 was raging positive. That was the difference, and not so much the tropics or pacific. 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

2009-10 was similar, except the polar domain (nao) was negative while 04-05 & 94-95 was raging positive. That was the difference, and not so much the tropics or pacific. 

The 09-10 winter was very different in regard to having the cold pool north of Hawaii. That was associated with the stronger Aleutian low in thst area instead of ridge. So the actual PDO index that winter didn’t match the area north of Hawaii. That’s why I look closely at that area to see if it’s in sync with the PDO. Some years the PDO index is contrary to that region and 09-10 was one of them. So that cold pool north of Hawaii and Aleutian low was actually more like a +PDO. It matched the colder and snowier Modokis in 02-03 and 14-15. 

 

 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 09-10 winter was very different in regard to having the cold pool north of Hawaii. That was associated with the stronger Aleutian low in thst area instead of ridge. So the actual PDO index that winter didn’t match the area north of Hawaii. That’s why I look closely at that area to see if it’s in sync with the PDO. Some years the pdo index is contrary to that region and 09-10 was one of them. So that cold pool north of Hawaii and Aleutian low was actually more like a +PDO.

 

 

I also looked at the PDO index leading up to each winter, and before 09-10, there was a long duration strong negative PDO before becoming neutral. 

So I think the atmospheric response to the el nino was driving the bus that winter, and the pac ssts was just a response to the aleutian low, which was a response to the forcing from the CP nino.

I don’t think the pdo ssts are the driver unless they are extreme.

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I also looked at the PDO index leading up to each winter, and before 09-10, there was a long duration strong negative PDO before becoming neutral. 

So I think the atmospheric response to the el nino was driving the bus that winter, and the pac ssts was just a response to the aleutian low, which was a response to the forcing from the CP nino.

I don’t think the pdo ssts are the driver unless they are extreme.

The more significant SST anomaly pattern that fall was closer to a strong +PDO with very cold SSTs north of Hawaii. It didn’t matter that the SSTs were colder along the West Coast since the pattern further west was driving the bus on the Pacific side. Notice the cold pool and more +PDO-like  Aleutian Low. 

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

9 hours ago, Terpeast said:

QBO came in at -13.58 for Sept. Still falling.

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The more significant SST anomaly pattern that fall was closer to a strong +PDO with very cold SSTs north of Hawaii. It didn’t matter that the SSTs were colder along the West Coast since the pattern further west was driving the bus on the Pacific side. Notice the cold pool and more +PDO-like  Aleutian Low. 

 

 

That time frame was when it started flipping. I was looking all the way back to mid 2007 when the PDO went negative, deeply so, and remained that way until around summer 2009, when the el nino atmospheric response began to assert itself right in that autumn timeframe.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Remember, the whole east based vs west based argument is moot if we get a -PDO. Modoki El Niño’s are warm with a -PDO that has a warm pool north of Hawaii and Aleutians ridge. The sample size is small but the 94-95 and 04-05 Modkis were warm.
 

Grouping 1994 with 2004 seems absolutely laughable to anyone residing in SNE...two totally different seasons. I feel like you are getting carried away binning seasons together simply because they each had a + DM temp anomaly.

The orientation of el nino is not "moot" because of a sample size of two that were significantly varied from one another in their own right.

I had a 107.5" just north of Boston in 2005 with a 60" average.....that works as a modiki in my book.

[40/70 Benchmark]

59 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

2009-10 was similar, except the polar domain (nao) was negative while 04-05 & 94-95 was raging positive. That was the difference, and not so much the tropics or pacific. 

Again, 2004-2005 is being mischaracterized here....the season was biased in the mean by a very prominent early season PV, however, there was a distinct duality to that season....the second half had severe bouts of high latitude blocking...much more anomalous than 1995, which is why it was one of the most prolific seasons in SNE history.

[Terpeast]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Again, 2004-2005 is being mischaracterized here....the season was biased in the mean by a very prominent early season PV, however, there was a distinct duality to that season....the second half had severe bouts of high latitude blocking...much more anomalous than 1995, which is why it was one of the most prolific seasons in SNE history.

I’ll have to look at the ao/nao numbers again for that season, but given How drastically different the 3 seasons I raised here is proof enough that the polar domain is going to be a determining factor for 23-24 given the enso and pdo similarities across all three. Bluewave and I were just looking at both sides of the same coin here. 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Grouping 1994 with 2004 seems absolutely laughable to anyone residing in SNE...two totally different seasons. I feel like you are getting carried away binning seasons together simply because they each had a + DM temp anomaly.

I was talking about cold not snow. We can always get snowier winters with warmer patterns with the right storm track. I had better quality snowstorms in my area from 15-16 to 17-18 even though it was much warmer than 13-14 and 14-15. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I’ll have to look at the ao/nao numbers again for that season, but given How drastically different the 3 seasons I raised here is proof enough that the polar domain is going to be a determining factor for 23-24 given the enso and pdo similarities across all three. Bluewave and I were just looking at both sides of the same coin here. 

I agree here...I have been saying that all winter....and 2005 bolsters that argument because it was the big second half blocking that lead to the blockbuster Miller B season.

Just now, bluewave said:

I was talking about cold not snow. We can always get snowier winters with warmer patterns with the right storm track. I had better quality snowstorms in my area from 15-16 to 17-18 even though it was much warmer than 13-14 and 14-15.

I understand that, but it wasn't that warm in the mean...no one compared it to Feb 2015. Grouping it with 1994 is silly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I mean...you do the math:

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree here...I have been saying that all winter....and 2005 bolsters that argument because it was the big second half blocking that lead to the blockbuster Miller B season.

Yes, and the qbo is double digit negative and falling is a good sign.

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree here...I have been saying that all winter....and 2005 bolsters that argument because it was the big second half blocking that lead to the blockbuster Miller B season.

I understand that, but it wasn't that warm in the mean...no one compared it to Feb 2015. Grouping it with 1994 is silly.

94-95 and 04-05 were both warmer Modokis. That’s why they were grouped together. When you get a more -PDO-like Modoki  which matches the region north of Hawaii it’s just not as cold as the +PDO counterparts. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Yes, and the qbo is double digit negative and falling is a good sign.

1995 had a window in February, but the blocking was less anomalous and more transient.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean...you do the math:

I get your point about it not being a cold modoki due to the PDO, but I think its misleading to bin it with 1995 without at least referencing the major difference in the polar domain. I think this dichotomy is actually a splendid illustration of why the polar fields will be crucial this season given the state of the Pacific. We also had more ridging in the EPO region in 2005.

Just now, bluewave said:

94-95 and 04-05 were both warmer Modokis. That’s why they were grouped together. When you get a more -PDO-like Modoki  which matches the region north of Hawaii it’s jus not as cold as the +PDO counterparts. 

 

[bluewave]

2004-2005 was a very warm winter across the US. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think 2005 is a good example of how we can get a favorable outcome this year...a "ceiling" if you will. I understand that el nino is significantly stronger and Boston is not getting a 100". Agreed...I just mean the east in general.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2004-2005 was a very warm winter across the US. 

 

 

Notice how the east isn't really warm?

Polar domain....for folks living in the NE, they are night and day.

 

[bluewave]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Notice how the east isn't really warm?

Polar domain....for folks living in the NE, they are night and day.

 

For the entire CONUS, the 04-05 winter was 12th warmest and 94-95 was 10th warmest. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Add in March, which was very wintery in 2005.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

For the entire CONUS, the 04-05 winter was 12th warmest and 94-95 was 10th warmest. 

Right....but in the east......where most of us live.....they were drastically different and that is because of the polar domain.

I understand your point and its valid, but I feel like it was confusing to bin them that way without specifiying.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nino 3.4 is between +1.4 and +1.5 on October 11th.. I don't think there was ever any question that this is not going to be a Super event. We seemed to be breaking records before, and in my opinion that's just because ENSO is catching up to the global warming trend of the last 20 years. 

ENSO subsurface is not cold anywhere, which is a good sign for legitimate atmospheric responses in the northern latitudes, but it's not very warm, maybe 30-50% of the "Super" events. 

Absolutely agree. Been my stance all summer and fall...also, if you look at the periodicity of these uber el ninos, we just aren't quite there yet....its only been 8 years. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Did a prelim analog analysis...

Collected all El Nino years, from weakest to strongest, and cross ref'ed them against MEI, Nino 4, difference between ONI and Nino 4 (to see if it was east based or not), PDO, QBO, AMO, preceding base state (whether the nino came after multi-year ninas and -PDO regimes).

Once I filled in all this data, I filtered out all the east-based ninos, +PDO years, and +QBO years... any MEI lower than 0.5 and any higher than 1.1. I got only one analog match:

2009-10.

Not a perfect match by any means... but it's all I've got right now, and I'm certainly not going to base my winter outlook just on one season. So I'm just going to wait for another month's worth of data, and loosen my matching criteria to include more analog years so I could use a mix of at least 5 seasons.

Now if I ignore the QBO, I get: 94-95, 04-05, 06-07, and 09-10. At least the latter three had "falling" QBO, so I could exclude 94-95 based on which direction the QBO was evolving those seasons.

94-95 also had residual impact from Pinatubo...94-95 and 2006-2007 were also descending solar, which bolsters PV IMO....there is a solar lag, which is why the seasons lag, so it stands to reason that the most hostile seasons for high latitude blocking are following solar max.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2004-2005 was a very warm winter across the US. 

 

 

It's because we're really a kind of "boundary climate" here in New England. 

One side is Eastern/Maritime Canada, the other is where we tend to be included by practice ... which is more like a Chicago/Ohio Valley.

The latter is dubious though, because there are times when we'll be dominated by either, and that distinctly separate us from whatever shenanigans may have bee persisting in the former.  Either can lock in for 90 day pattern foots.  And sometimes too, both will be enveloped in same.

Also folks need to be sort of polymathic when considering these products; when there is a warm anomaly in New England latitudes that are similar to ORD ( for example), particularly in the summer, that may be more elaborately colorized in New England, because summers are warmer out there.  This is naturally vice versa in winters.  

 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right....but in the east......where most of us live.....they were drastically different and that is because of the polar domain.

I understand your point and its valid, but I feel like it was confusing to bin them that way without specifiying.

The -PDO Modoki composite is drastically warmer in the East than the more +PDO-like Modoki composite.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bluewave said:

The -PDO Modoki composite is drastically warmer in the East than the more +PDO-like composite.

 

Of course it is....but compare 1994 to the other 4. That is all I was saying. Clearly a +PDO modoki has colder potential than a negative PDO season. I don't think anyone expects a frigid eastern US winter.

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The -PDO Modoki composite is drastically warmer in the East than the more +PDO-like Modoki composite.

 

Why are you using the 1971-2000 climo when 4 out of those 5 winters are later than 2000?

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Why are you using the 1971-2000 climo when 4 out of those 5 winters are later than 2000?

You can only use one climate normals period for a single composite and 4 of those 5 winters were after 2000 when the period began. There is no difference if we use 1981-2010 climate normals period.

 

 

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can only use one climate normals period for a single composite and 4 of those 5 winters were after 2000 when the period began.

That doesn’t make any sense. You can change the climate normal period before you render the plot.