El Nino 2023-2024

[George001]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I think we have a good sense of where this nino is going to peak. So it’s time for me to pick my analog years. I’ll be using this criteria:

- early nino peakers
- MEI between 0.5 and 1.0
- neg qbo
- ascending solar/near solar max
- neg pdo (even if only slightly so)
- warm AMO
- any nino that comes after a triple nina

Those are just off the top of my head. And then I’ll narrow to a short list of top 5-6 analogs, and adjust them a few degrees warmer if they are older than 1990

and of course, super ninos will be excluded because we almost certainly are not going super. 

It has slowed down some in recent weeks, but I still believe it will go super because Paul Roundy said so. If Paul Roundy backs down then I’ll back down too.

[roardog]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

It has slowed down some in recent weeks, but I still believe it will go super because Paul Roundy said so. If Paul Roundy backs down then I’ll back down too.

Has Paul Roundy said anything recently about believing it will go super? 

[brooklynwx99]

if I hear the name Paul Roundy one more time

[brooklynwx99]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

@GaWx

Cfs updated October. Slight change from 20 days ago. Had the right area for the coolest temps I suppose.

this is why seasonal models aren't great with temps. there isn't just going to be a sea of warmth... the coldest areas will get cold, not just remain near normal. everything gets washed out

[snowman19]

9/23 update had months 11/23-3/24 anomalies at 2.4, 2.7, 2.9, 2.7, 2.3. 
2 weeks later with today's update those numbers are 2.0, 2.2, 2.5, 2.5, 2.2.
 

I don’t care about that model. I posted it for their disco

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

9/23 update had months 11/23-3/24 anomalies at 2.4, 2.7, 2.9, 2.7, 2.3. 

2 weeks later with today's update those numbers are 2.0, 2.2, 2.5, 2.5, 2.2.

 

This means that the BoM model’s ONI peak in DJF dropped from 2.87 a couple of runs ago to 2.77 on the 9/23 run to only 2.43 in this latest run. It will almost certainly keep dropping.

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, George001 said:

It has slowed down some in recent weeks, but I still believe it will go super because Paul Roundy said so. If Paul Roundy backs down then I’ll back down too.

From his postings attached in this forum, I  doubt he would say that this Nino has progressed as he thought it would 2 months ago.

[snowman19]

32 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This means that the BoM model’s ONI peak in DJF dropped from 2.87 a couple of runs ago to 2.77 on the 9/23 run to only 2.43 in this latest run. It will almost certainly keep dropping.

@brooklynwx99 https://www.twitter.com/paulroundy1/status/1712052777453527330?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

FWIW the new JMA still gets it to super

[brooklynwx99]

here is a composite of velocity potential from 1972, 1982, 1997, and 2015 from 10/22-26 compared to the EPS (GEFS and GEPS are near-identical) forecasted 7-day mean VP. it's clear that we're likely going to see forcing remain significantly farther west of those classical super EP Ninos, likely due to the extremely warm WPAC and lingering La Nina base state

2009 still seems to be one of the better analogs in terms of forcing this year. the similarities in forcing between this year and 2009 are pretty uncanny

it also seems to stay that way, as the main -VP anomaly is likely going to be centered in the same spot as that year to close the month out. same strength and all

[brooklynwx99]

I also doubt we'll see a super Nino at all this year, at least in terms of three consecutive averaged ONI > +2C. 3.4 took a pretty big plunge this past month and has stagnated. there isn't much in the way of strong MJO pulses or anomalous WWBs to really kick this into gear... a peak ONI of 1.6-1.9 seems reasonable at this point given slow, steady strengthening throughout the next couple of months. MEI likely peaks somewhere in the 1.1-1.4C range

[brooklynwx99]

the new C3S moved the forcing even farther west than the past run to just a tick E of the dateline. the overall forcing later in the winter is much more reminiscent of the CP Nino winters of 1986, 2002, and 2009 rather than the EP super Nino winters of 1972, 1982, 1997, and 2015

[Eskimo Joe]

Eric Webb probably sweating right now with his East Based El Nino call all summer.

[brooklynwx99]

32 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Eric Webb probably sweating right now with his East Based El Nino call all summer.

i mean, in terms of raw SSTs, this is indeed an EP Nino. those often become basin-wide sans years like 1997 and 1982. I prefer to use the term basin-wide to avoid confusion since we're not writing research papers here

regardless of raw SSTs, this Nino continues to not really behave like it should. not really sure how to feel about it, but it seems to be more optimistic than pessimistic given that a year like 2009 shares so many similarities

[raindancewx]

I'm really not a fan of 1986 for the Summer pattern. I don't think it's an impossible look for the winter. But you're talking about a really cold Summer, that was very wet for the Southwest. It was blazing hot, like all time record heat in places that are already very hot this year. Just a much colder look nationally in general.

2002 was coldest in Texas nationally, where the high and heat was strongest this year. I also vaguely remember that Summer being extraordinarily hot late as a teenager in NJ. 2009 was actually very cold in the east in July-Sept, whereas this year was not really that cold. If you try to blend 1986, 2009, 2009 together you get no real pattern overall for July-Sept.

I've been meaning to ask, but isn't the VP velocity potential stuff messed up by the volcano? I would think the shitload of extra moisture screws up where "above normal / below normal" sets up relative to a 30-year baseline.

[griteater]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, in terms of raw SSTs, this is indeed an EP Nino. those often become basin-wide sans years like 1997 and 1982. I prefer to use the term basin-wide to avoid confusion since we're not writing research papers here

regardless of raw SSTs, this Nino continues to not really behave like it should. not really sure how to feel about it, but it seems to be more optimistic than pessimistic given that a year like 2009 shares so many similarities

It will be hard to pinpoint below normal temperature anomalies for the full winter, anywhere really, given the magnitude of global warmth that we've been seeing...but I would expect to see wintry opportunities in the eastern 1/2 of U.S. at times, particularly in the Jan-Mar timeframe given that: 1) it is unlikely now that we see a super level Nino, and 2) indications are that the low frequency VP uplift isn't going to be well east.  I think the times to watch for wintry weather in the east will be when the weakish MJO signal (VP pulses moving west to east) constructively interfere with the ongoing, low frequency, El Nino VP signal.

Here is a loop of SST Anomalies for October to March from the Oct release of the Copernicus C3S Model Ensemble

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

It will be hard to pinpoint below normal temperature anomalies for the full winter, anywhere really, given the magnitude of global warmth that we've been seeing...but I would expect to see wintry opportunities in the eastern 1/2 of U.S. at times, particularly in the Jan-Mar timeframe given that: 1) it is unlikely now that we see a super level Nino, and 2) indications are that the low frequency VP uplift isn't going to be well east.  I think the times to watch for wintry weather in the east will be when the weakish MJO signal (VP pulses moving west to east) constructively interfere with the ongoing, low frequency, El Nino VP signal.

Here is a loop of SST Anomalies for October to March from the Oct release of the Copernicus C3S Model Ensemble

I don't really see straight BN anomalies for DJF anywhere outside of the SE/SW US. however, I think late Jan into Feb has the potential to be legitimately cold and stormy. will that offset a very warm Dec and early Jan? probably not

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I'm really not a fan of 1986 for the Summer pattern. I don't think it's an impossible look for the winter. But you're talking about a really cold Summer, that was very wet for the Southwest. It was blazing hot, like all time record heat in places that are already very hot this year. Just a much colder look nationally in general.

2002 was coldest in Texas nationally, where the high and heat was strongest this year. I also vaguely remember that Summer being extraordinarily hot late as a teenager in NJ. 2009 was actually very cold in the east in July-Sept, whereas this year was not really that cold. If you try to blend 1986, 2009, 2009 together you get no real pattern overall for July-Sept.

I've been meaning to ask, but isn't the VP velocity potential stuff messed up by the volcano? I would think the shitload of extra moisture screws up where "above normal / below normal" sets up relative to a 30-year baseline.

I have absolutely no idea; that is the wildcard for me. I would hope that models take that into account? but again, I don't really know

and I don't really think that 1986/2002 are amazing analogs or anything like that... I just think that we could see some Modoki-esque stretches as we head later into winter. hell, even 2016 had that in January

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I have absolutely no idea; that is the wildcard for me. I would hope that models take that into account? but again, I don't really know

and I don't really think that 1986/2002 are amazing analogs or anything like that... I just think that we could see some Modoki-esque stretches as we head later into winter. hell, even 2016 had that in January

I've been asking about the volcanic analogs and if it's best to use them given we're talking about water and not sulfur...

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I've been asking about the volcanic analogs and if it's best to use them given we're talking about water and not sulfur...

Yeah, I don't think it's best to use past volcanic analogs like Pinatubo in 1991-92 because that was a different type of eruption with sulfur not H2O vapor.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nino 3.4 is between +1.4 and +1.5 on October 11th.. I don't think there was ever any question that this is not going to be a Super event. We seemed to be breaking records before, and in my opinion that's just because ENSO is catching up to the global warming trend of the last 20 years. 

ENSO subsurface is not cold anywhere, which is a good sign for legitimate atmospheric responses in the northern latitudes, but it's not very warm, maybe 30-50% of the "Super" events. 

[raindancewx]

What do you look at for the subsurface? There is plenty of cold to the center and west even if it is a bit incoherent. You have just enough heat by Nino 1.2 to block a Modoki look for a few months at least. It takes several weeks for that heat to surface.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

It will be hard to pinpoint below normal temperature anomalies for the full winter, anywhere really, given the magnitude of global warmth that we've been seeing...but I would expect to see wintry opportunities in the eastern 1/2 of U.S. at times, particularly in the Jan-Mar timeframe given that: 1) it is unlikely now that we see a super level Nino, and 2) indications are that the low frequency VP uplift isn't going to be well east.  I think the times to watch for wintry weather in the east will be when the weakish MJO signal (VP pulses moving west to east) constructively interfere with the ongoing, low frequency, El Nino VP signal.

Here is a loop of SST Anomalies for October to March from the Oct release of the Copernicus C3S Model Ensemble

I see something of interest has developed on the Atlantic side. Cold pool off Newfoundland. Hopefully, it'll continue to cool. 

[Terpeast]

QBO came in at -13.58 for Sept. Still falling.

[Terpeast]

11 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I think we have a good sense of where this nino is going to peak. So it’s time for me to pick my analog years. I’ll be using this criteria:

- early nino peakers
- MEI between 0.5 and 1.0
- neg qbo
- ascending solar/near solar max
- neg pdo (even if only slightly so)
- warm AMO
- any nino that comes after a triple nina

Those are just off the top of my head. And then I’ll narrow to a short list of top 5-6 analogs, and adjust them a few degrees warmer if they are older than 1990

and of course, super ninos will be excluded because we almost certainly are not going super. 

Did a prelim analog analysis...

Collected all El Nino years, from weakest to strongest, and cross ref'ed them against MEI, Nino 4, difference between ONI and Nino 4 (to see if it was east based or not), PDO, QBO, AMO, preceding base state (whether the nino came after multi-year ninas and -PDO regimes).

Once I filled in all this data, I filtered out all the east-based ninos, +PDO years, and +QBO years... any MEI lower than 0.5 and any higher than 1.1. I got only one analog match:

2009-10.

Not a perfect match by any means... but it's all I've got right now, and I'm certainly not going to base my winter outlook just on one season. So I'm just going to wait for another month's worth of data, and loosen my matching criteria to include more analog years so I could use a mix of at least 5 seasons.

Now if I ignore the QBO, I get: 94-95, 04-05, 06-07, and 09-10. At least the latter three had "falling" QBO, so I could exclude 94-95 based on which direction the QBO was evolving those seasons.

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@brooklynwx99 https://www.twitter.com/paulroundy1/status/1712052777453527330?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

FWIW the new JMA still gets it to super

 Looking at the very telling actual output for the new JMA, it cooled notably for a second month in a row and is no longer forecasting a super. Based on eyeballing, I have it (NDJ peak) no warmer than ~+1.90 vs +2.06 last month and +2.22 two months ago. It is easy to see that all months Oct-Feb cooled with January having cooled the most (see two images below). Just place a ruler along the +2 line on each and it is easy to see that it cooled. Jan is no higher than +1.7 after having been ~+1.9 last month and ~+2.05 two months ago:

Sept 1st run: NDJ +2.06

Oct 1st run: NDJ ~+1.90

[raindancewx]

The whole point of analogs is that you can't actually match a single year on all variables. Just make a sheet in Excel with all the variables you think are important, and blend them together until you find something that matches actual weather conditions.

I'm kind of baffled by the tendency to ignore the actual location of the warmth in Nino 1.2. It doesn't really matter if the atmosphere isn't responding the way you expect at 500 mb. The mere presence of that warmth has effects on its own. The main idea with Nino 1.2 warmth is just that the subtropical jet is stronger than normal, you certainly have that look already. You can see it with how well 1982/1997 matched the US temp profile in July-Sept 2023. You're still getting similar effects to the east based years, regardless of whether anyone is willing to acknowledge that or not.

For god's sake just look. Hot TX, some random cold NV & Midwest, look familiar?

[Terpeast]

21 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

The whole point of analogs is that you can't actually match a single year on all variables. Just make a sheet in Excel with all the variables you think are important, and blend them together until you find something that matches actual weather conditions.

I'm kind of baffled by the tendency to ignore the actual location of the warmth in Nino 1.2. It doesn't really matter if the atmosphere isn't responding the way you expect at 500 mb. The mere presence of that warmth has effects on its own. The main idea with Nino 1.2 warmth is just that the subtropical jet is stronger than normal, you certainly have that look already. You can see it with how well 1982/1997 matched the US temp profile in July-Sept 2023. You're still getting similar effects to the east based years, regardless of whether anyone is willing to acknowledge that or not.

For god's sake just look. Hot TX, some random cold NV & Midwest, look familiar?

No need to get so worked up because I used a different matching tactic than you did, and I haven’t even gotten to the maps part of my whole analysis yet. I already spent 3 hours on collecting the variables that I think are important, and it’s getting late. I’m not going to pull an all nighter just to complete the analysis the way you think should be done. 

Chillax. Sheesh. 

[GaWx]

Summarizing the major models I follow, this month cooled on all of them for ONI peak vs last month’s run:

BoA: +2.43 vs +2.87 a month ago (DJF)

MetFrance: ~+2.3 vs ~+2.5 a month ago (NDJ)

Euro: ~+1.98 vs +2.24 a month ago (NDJ)

UKMET: ~+1.90 vs +1.96 a month ago (DJF)

JMA ~+1.90 vs +2.06 a month ago (NDJ)

CFS ~+1.60 (DJF) vs +1.83 a month ago (NDJ)

AVG ~+2.02 (NDJ/DJF) vs +2.29 a month ago (NDJ)

Median ~+1.94 (NDJ/DJF) vs 2.15 a month ago (NDJ)

[GaWx]

Does anyone here follow GLAAM?
 

“State Of The Atmosphere: El Niño, Positive India Dipole And Negative GLAAM”

“The Earth’s atmosphere and oceans have a certain amount of natural rotation or spin, which is called angular momentum. This spin affects weather patterns. 

Normally, GLAAM is positive when the Trade Winds reverse blowing warm waters (arrow) from west to east. So positive GLAAM is most present during roughly 75% of all El Niño events. Currently, GLAAM is negative, which means less torque or rotation along the equator. This could potentially weaken the warm waters blowing from west to east. If it does, a cold, snowy northern Hemispheric winter would be the rule.”

https://www.barchart.com/story/news/21017728/how-different-el-nino-events-affect-winter-weather-and-natural-gas-prices

[bluewave]

Remember, the whole east based vs west based argument is moot if we get a -PDO. Modoki El Niño’s are warm with a -PDO that has a warm pool north of Hawaii and Aleutians ridge. The sample size is small but the 94-95 and 04-05 Modkis were warm.