40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: Actually, in addition to Sep of 2004, it is Sep of 2015 rather than 2014 although 2014 is close behind. Also, Sep of 1987 is very close. Starting to fall quite a bit behind 2015 in the central regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 Starting to fall quite a bit behind 2015 in the central regions.Region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November back in 2015….that’s not happening. I do still think this one gets over +2C but definitely not that warm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 From World Climate Service: September ENSO/IOD index update (ERSSTv5): • Niño3.4 +1.6 (4th highest) • Niño1+2 +2.5 (second only to 1997) • Niño4 +1.1 (record highest) • Modoki Index -0.24 (*not at all Modoki-like yet*) • ENSO Longitude Index: now 5th highest since 1950 • IOD +2.1 (4th highest) And a couple more September SST indices AMO +0.9 (highest on record by far) PDO -1.7 (3rd most negative since 1950 - astonishing to see during El Niño) My add: Nino region 3 was the warmest on record in September Links: https://www.twitter.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1709286540432621601?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://www.twitter.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1709291978796552683?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 JAS ONI: +1.3C (rounded to nearest tenth) JAS RONI: +0.81C 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 The Sep ERSST based PDO came in at a whopping -2.94. This is the 3rd lowest Sep PDO on record going way back to 1854! The only lower Sept ones were the -2.99 of 2012 and the -2.97 of 1933. Both rose rapidly in Oct and Nov and reached -0.66/-0.49 in November: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 44 minutes ago, George BM said: JAS ONI: +1.3C (rounded to nearest tenth) JAS RONI: +0.81C Any chance you got the AS MEI update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 11 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Any chance you got the AS MEI update? Nah. It's not out just yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 54 minutes ago, GaWx said: The Sep ERSST based PDO came in at a whopping -2.94. This is the 3rd lowest Sep PDO on record going way back to 1854! The only lower Sept ones were the -2.99 of 2012 and the -2.97 of 1933. Both rose rapidly in Oct and Nov and reached -0.66/-0.49 in November: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat That PDO is so negative that it’s probably destructively interfering with El Niño development as seen with the stronger trades and Nino region temperature declines in recent weeks. https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/966/why-is-the-warm-phase-of-the-pacific-decadal-oscillation-associated-with-stronge According to the State Climate Office of North Carolina webpage Global Patterns - Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), experts believe the PDO can intensify or diminish the impacts of ENSO according to its phase. If both ENSO and the PDO are in the same phase, it is believed that El Niño/La Niña impacts may be magnified. Conversely, if ENSO and the PDO are out of phase, it has been proposed that they may offset one another, preventing "true" ENSO impacts from occurring. Essentially, almost analogous to constructive and destructive interference in sound. Another relationship, from the University of Alaska, Fairbanks webpage The Pacific Decadal Oscillation also asserts that A positive, or warm phase PDO, produces climate and circulation patterns that are very similar to El Niño. Likewise, a negative, or cool phase PDO, produces climate and circulation patterns similar to La Niña (Gershunov and Barnett, 1998). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 I read a study years ago that showed the exact opposite…..ENSO forces the PDO not the other way around. If that’s correct, the PDO should go up very dramatically by spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I read a study years ago that showed the exact opposite…..ENSO forces the PDO not the other way around. If that’s correct, the PDO should go up very dramatically by spring PDO should rebound pretty quickly once into November / December. not expecting positive, but somewhere in the -0.75 to +0.25 range by then 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: PDO should rebound pretty quickly once into November / December. not expecting positive, but somewhere in the -0.75 to +0.25 range by then I’m just curious why you think that it will rebound that much from nearly record lows? Is it because you believe the Nino will force the change or are there other things that you’re seeing which will help force the change? It looks like the water off the west coast is cooling again starting to give it more of the classic -PDO look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 59 minutes ago, roardog said: I’m just curious why you think that it will rebound that much from nearly record lows? Is it because you believe the Nino will force the change or are there other things that you’re seeing which will help force the change? It looks like the water off the west coast is cooling again starting to give it more of the classic -PDO look. it usually does rise when Ninos mature. it can also rise pretty rapidly... rose from -2.22 in Dec 1994 to +0.02 by Feb 1995 also, SSTs can help lead to positive feedback, but ENSO and tropical forcing will drive the bus. it's just that usually a -PDO positively feeds back on the -PNA caused by La Ninas and vice versa. here, we will likely have conflicting signals, but the +PNA from the Nino should win out on the mean 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: That PDO is so negative that it’s probably destructively interfering with El Niño development as seen with the stronger trades and Nino region temperature declines in recent weeks. https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/966/why-is-the-warm-phase-of-the-pacific-decadal-oscillation-associated-with-stronge According to the State Climate Office of North Carolina webpage Global Patterns - Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), experts believe the PDO can intensify or diminish the impacts of ENSO according to its phase. If both ENSO and the PDO are in the same phase, it is believed that El Niño/La Niña impacts may be magnified. Conversely, if ENSO and the PDO are out of phase, it has been proposed that they may offset one another, preventing "true" ENSO impacts from occurring. Essentially, almost analogous to constructive and destructive interference in sound. Another relationship, from the University of Alaska, Fairbanks webpage The Pacific Decadal Oscillation also asserts that A positive, or warm phase PDO, produces climate and circulation patterns that are very similar to El Niño. Likewise, a negative, or cool phase PDO, produces climate and circulation patterns similar to La Niña (Gershunov and Barnett, 1998). -One thing the severely -PDO isn’t interfering with is the solid -SOI of the last 2 months -A sub -2 Sep PDO has been followed by several cool to cold E US winters: - 1892-3: DJF PDO rose to -0.77 - 1894-5: DJF PDO rose to -0.89 - 1916-7: (cool NE): DJF PDO still down at -1.96 - 1933-4: DJF PDO rose to -0.32 (very cold Feb NE US) - 1950-1: DJF PDO rose to -1.26 (cool Mid Atlantic/SE) - 2010-1: DJF PDO still down at -1.77 - 1920-1: near normal; DJF PDO -1.11 - 1955-6: near normal; DJF PDO -2.25 - 1999-0: near normal; DJF PDO -1.80 - 2011-2: warm; DJF PDO -2.20 - 2012-3: mild; DJF PDO -1.28 - 2022-3: warm; DJF PDO -1.70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: it usually does rise when Ninos mature. it can also rise pretty rapidly... rose from -2.22 in Dec 1994 to +0.02 by Feb 1995 also, SSTs can help lead to positive feedback, but ENSO and tropical forcing will drive the bus. it's just that usually a -PDO positively feeds back on the -PNA caused by La Ninas and vice versa. here, we will likely have conflicting signals, but the +PNA from the Nino should win out on the mean I think we also get a PDO rise in a different mechanism - the strong extended pac jet forms over a baroclinic boundary off Japan with cyclones and fronts responding to this, and as they traverse over the western N Pac, ssts will start to cool and the PDO will rise. Meanwhile we may see a +EPO dominant autumn with that jet, but even that’ll also help drive a little bit of a PDO rise over the US west coast (warmer ssts). The extreme negative PDO will be self limiting eventually. Been seeing a hint of this in the day 5-15 ensembles 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 8 hours ago, GaWx said: One thing the severely -PDO isn’t interfering with is the solid -SOI of the last 2 months -A sub -2 Sep PDO has been followed by several cool to cold E US winters: It is interfering with the strong WWB pattern we usually see during Septembers with -SOI. This is probably due to the lower pressures than average north of Australia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 it usually does rise when Ninos mature. it can also rise pretty rapidly... rose from -2.22 in Dec 1994 to +0.02 by Feb 1995 also, SSTs can help lead to positive feedback, but ENSO and tropical forcing will drive the bus. it's just that usually a -PDO positively feeds back on the -PNA caused by La Ninas and vice versa. here, we will likely have conflicting signals, but the +PNA from the Nino should win out on the meanGiven how insanely negative the PDO is right now, it may take until March or April before it goes completely positive but it should be on the rise during the winter with the El Niño forcing on the mid latitudes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 Updated thru 9/30. Subsurface cooling continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 29 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Given how insanely negative the PDO is right now, it may take until March or April before it goes completely positive but it should be on the rise during the winter with the El Niño forcing on the mid latitudes Though it is mathematically possible based on the past for a rapid enough rise to allow for a neutral to slightly +PDO averaged out for DJF, especially with it being a solid El Niño, a more realistic possibility is only rising to the -0.50 to -1.00 area. But that would still mean a rapid PDO rise between Sep and DJF to only a modest -PDO, which would appear to be enough to correlate more with higher cool to cold E US winter chances than mild or warm E US winter chances. I don’t feel a rise to a neutral or +PDO would be what’s required. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 15 minutes ago, GaWx said: Though it is mathematically possible based on the past for a rapid enough rise to allow for a neutral to slightly +PDO averaged out for DJF, especially with it being a solid El Niño, a more realistic possibility is only rising to the -0.50 to -1.00 area. But that would still mean a rapid PDO rise between Sep and DJF to only a modest -PDO, which would appear to be enough to correlate more with higher cool to cold E US winter chances than mild or warm E US winter chances. I don’t feel a rise to a neutral or +PDO would be what’s required. Agreed. As the 1960s and a winter like 09-10 showed, we don’t need the pdo to flip. We can get away with it being slightly negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 Yea, I am of the camp that the PDO will rise, but still average negative. But that should be good enough with decent blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 For the 2nd month in a row after being mainly the other way around for awhile, ERSST came in slightly warmer than OISST in Sep (+1.59 vs +1.53). For Aug/Sep, ERSST came in 0.05/0.06 warmer than OISST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 The only Nino region to have a new record in September was 4 getting close to +30C. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 45 minutes ago, bluewave said: The only Nino region to have a new record in September was 4 getting close to +30C. Bastardi said in his most recent Saturday Summary that the best shot for a cold E US winter would be for 3.4 anomalies to be higher (central) than that for Nino 1+2 (east) but also higher than 4 (west). He implied that forcing centered on Nino 4 would favor MJO phase 6, which is one of the three warmest phases in DJF overall in the E US (see maps in image below) whereas forcing centered on Nino 3.4 would favor colder E US phases (8 and 1). It looks to me like Nino 4 could also favor phase 7, which isn’t as warm in the E US as phase 6 though it still favors mildness: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 59 minutes ago, GaWx said: Bastardi said in his most recent Saturday Summary that the best shot for a cold E US winter would be for 3.4 anomalies to be higher (central) than that for Nino 1+2 (east) but also higher than 4 (west). He implied that forcing centered on Nino 4 would favor MJO phase 6, which is one of the three warmest phases in DJF overall in the E US (see maps in image below) whereas forcing centered on Nino 3.4 would favor colder E US phases (8 and 1). It looks to me like Nino 4 could also favor phase 7, which isn’t as warm in the E US as phase 6 though it still favors mildness: Not even sure what type of forcing we would need to get in order to break this streak of 8 warmer winters in a row for the Northeast. NYC Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.7 Jan 21….+1.1 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.4 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 Bastardi said in his most recent Saturday Summary that the best shot for a cold E US winter would be for 3.4 anomalies to be higher (central) than that for Nino 1+2 (east) but also higher than 4 (west). He implied that forcing centered on Nino 4 would favor MJO phase 6, which is one of the three warmest phases in DJF overall in the E US (see maps in image below) whereas forcing centered on Nino 3.4 would favor colder E US phases (8 and 1). It looks to me like Nino 4 could also favor phase 7, which isn’t as warm in the E US as phase 6 though it still favors mildness: He’s also using 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03, 09-10 and 14-15 as his “analogs”. That’s called “let me find the coldest and snowiest El Niño/borderline El Niño winters for the east coast in the last 70 years and say they are all great “analogs” for subscription money, likes, follows and retweets from east coast weenies who don’t know my little yearly games any better”. “Migrating Modoki!!”. Its the same concept of saying 95-96 and 10-11 are great “analogs” every time there’s a La Niña. Different night, same ending for him….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 Pretty amazing to see the -PDO change the modeled look of +PNA for the next few weeks. It looks like around Oct 16th, it's finally able to re-center south of the Aleutian islands, as there is enough wear and tear at that point, and let's see if that holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Bastardi said in his most recent Saturday Summary that the best shot for a cold E US winter would be for 3.4 anomalies to be higher (central) than that for Nino 1+2 (east) but also higher than 4 (west). He implied that forcing centered on Nino 4 would favor MJO phase 6, which is one of the three warmest phases in DJF overall in the E US (see maps in image below) whereas forcing centered on Nino 3.4 would favor colder E US phases (8 and 1). It looks to me like Nino 4 could also favor phase 7, which isn’t as warm in the E US as phase 6 though it still favors mildness: Looking at phase 6, what does the 0% significance mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 42 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Looking at phase 6, what does the 0% significance mean? I don’t know what the 0% significance means on any of the maps. I got these maps from this website: https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php#thumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Looking at phase 6, what does the 0% significance mean? haha... sounds important! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: haha... sounds important! Well, it must be if they bother showing that map… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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