El Nino 2023-2024

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I highly, highly doubt that this Nino won't couple. this is not like 2018-19, and modeling is gung-ho on typical Nino forcing 

there is also no way this winter will be as bad as last winter... it broke records for how bad it was. not happening

Didn’t say no coupling. But possible weak coupling with competing influences will make for some very low skill winter forecasts. May be too much variability for any of the current seasonal models to correctly decipher. Notice how poorly they all did with the summer forcing forecasts east of the Dateline. We need a strong -AO -NAO +PNA signal as an insurance policy. 

[so_whats_happening]

Updated TAO subsurface, again wish I had decided to save dates before this but was way too busy with work.

[snowman19]

 Thanks for posting. Last month's UKMET NDJ 3.4 was right at +2.00 per this:
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table
 
 This new UKMET per eyeballing looks slightly cooler (compare the two images posted below). If you look closely at each month of NDJF, you can see that the mean of the members is a little below the +2.00 line with Jan the closest/barely under +2.00 per eyeballing. I think the peak (looks like DJF) is at or just cooler than +1.90 meaning a cooling of at least 0.10 imo vs last month. We should get a confirmation of exactly what it is within the next 10 days at the Columbia ENSO site.
 So, this means that the Euro, JMA, and UKMET have all cooled since last month's runs between 0.1 and 0.2 imo for the ONI peak. The inferior CFS cooled 0.35 (probably too cool imo) while the too warm this summer BoM stayed the same (almost definitely significantly too warm imo).
New UKMET 3.4: looks like ~+1.90 peak to me

 
Last month's UKMET: exactly +2.00 for NDJ
 

The BOM’s +3.0C is overdone, yes. So overdone that this event is not even getting to super? No way IMO. The BOM hasn’t budged from the same general numbers in months, run after run. It’s seeing something and it’s definitely not an inferior, jumping all over the place, flip flopping model like the CFS. It’s not known for having major biases one way or the other over the years, even though this year, it has been running a bit warm. I’m sticking by my prediction of a +2.2C trimonthly ONI average for NDJ. Even if we make the argument that the POAMA is too warm by over +0.5….that’s still solidly into super territory, since it’s showing that +3.0C for January. I think the other models warm back up on next month’s updates, this slight cooling was more of an over correction/windshield wiper effect. I think the entire complexion of this Nino takes off in a very big way the end of this month and October. I believe it couples and feeds back strongly and we see substantial warming, WWBs/DWKWs coming up for OND. I think the OHC peaks in November at over +2

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Didn’t say no coupling. But possible weak coupling with competing influences will make for some very low skill winter forecasts. May be too much variability for any of the current seasonal models to correctly decipher. Notice how poorly they all did with the summer forcing forecasts east of the Dateline. We need a strong -AO -NAO +PNA signal as an insurance policy. 

I could live with weak coupling...more n stream action....which you also wonder if the ghost of la nina could help keep in play.

Interesting.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It then gets really tricky as to what even the MEI threshold needs to be to resemble some type El Niño forcing this winter. Pretty impressive disconnect between the tropics and extratropics. We may end up with a mix of competing forcing influences which will make any seasonal forecasts even lower skill than usual. We may need some type of -NAO -AO carryover assist from the summer for a shot at better winter than last year.

  What do you think are the chances of the -NAO carrying over to this winter? Consider these stats:
 

-These 13 -NAO summers since 1950 didn't carryover and actually did the opposite in going to +NAO winters:

2019, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2011, 2007, 1998, 1993, 1987, 1980, 1974, 1960, 1956 (only 3 of these 13 cases were El Niño fwiw)

 

-These 5 -NAO summers were followed by neutral NAO winters:

2012, 2008, 2000, 1952, 1950 (none of these cases were El Niño fwiw)

 

-These 10 -NAO summers did carryover to a winter -NAO:

2020, 2010, 2009, 1977, 1968, 1963, 1962, 1958, 1957, 1954 (6 of these 10 cases were El Niño fwiw)

 

 Per the above sets of stats, only 3 of the 16 -NAO summers since 1980 (era of +NAO dominated winters) carried over to a -NAO winter: 2020, 2010, and 2009. But 7 of the 12 -NAO summers 1950-1979 (era of -NAO winters) did carryover.

 

 Also, these were the 11 strongest -NAO summers prior to 2023 (all sub -1.00 averaged out like 2023 was): 2019, 2016, 2015, 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008, 1998, 1993, 1980, 1958. Only 2 of these 11 carried over to a -NAO winter (2009 and 1958, which fwiw were both El Niño).

 

**Edit for this based on above data: 

(Pre) El Niño -NAO summers (9 of them): 2015, 2014, 2009, 1987, 1977, 1968, 1963, 1958, 1957. Of these, 6 of the 9 carried over to a winter -NAO though the most recent two didn't fwiw. So, perhaps it being El Niño helps the chances to some extent despite the most recent two not doing so.

NAO by month: (I'm counting between +0.25 and -0.25 as neutral)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could live with weak coupling...more n stream action....which you also wonder if the ghost of la nina could help keep in play.

Interesting.

The summer forcing pattern seemed like it got compressed into the Southern Hemisphere for some reason. Maybe that is why the -SOI intervals struggled to weaken the trades along the equator. Notice how far south the VP anomalies wound up relative to the early June forecasts. At least the models got the forcing correct west of the Dateline where the warmest 30C SSTs wound up.
 

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm more and more convinced that this will act more like a moderate event at this point. almost no chance the MEI from this event rivals those of 1982, 1997, and 2016

That's certainly what the Euro Seasonal, Cansip, NMME (minus the Cfs), and JMA Seasonal (to a lesser extent than the others) are saying. 

[griteater]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

C3S forcing is basically a carbon copy of the moderate Modoki winters of 2009, 2002, and 1986. don't shoot the messenger

My eastern U.S. winter 'fears' have slowly migrated from snowman forcing (E Pac) to bluewave forcing (E MC / Far W Pac) , though I reserve the right to change lol.  Thinking now is that the low frequency forcing is going to be favorable for the most part.  I can't imagine the low frequency forcing being focused west of 2014-2015 and what the JMA & JAMSTEC are showing, which is just west of the Dateline...and we don't have any indication that it's going to plow east in 82-83, 97-98 fashion either.  Bigger question may be how much destructive interference we see from the MJO over the course of the winter.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

  What do you think are the chances of the -NAO carrying over to this winter? Consider these stats:
 

-These 13 -NAO summers since 1950 didn't carryover and actually did the opposite in going to +NAO winters:

2019, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2011, 2007, 1998, 1993, 1987, 1980, 1974, 1960, 1956 (only 3 of these 13 cases were El Niño fwiw)

 

-These 5 -NAO summers were followed by neutral NAO winters:

2012, 2008, 2000, 1952, 1950 (none of these cases were El Niño fwiw)

 

-These 10 -NAO summers did carryover to a winter -NAO:

2020, 2010, 2009, 1977, 1968, 1963, 1962, 1958, 1957, 1954 (6 of these 10 cases were El Niño fwiw)

 

 Per the above sets of stats, only 3 of the 16 -NAO summers since 1980 (era of +NAO dominated winters) carried over to a -NAO winter: 2020, 2010, and 2009. But 7 of the 12 -NAO summers 1950-1979 (era of -NAO winters) did carryover.

 

 Also, these were the 11 strongest -NAO summers prior to 2023 (all sub -1.00 averaged out like 2023 was): 2019, 2016, 2015, 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008, 1998, 1993, 1980, 1958. Only 2 of these 11 carried over to a -NAO winter (2009 and 1958, which fwiw were both El Niño).

 

**Edit for this based on above data: 

(Pre) El Niño -NAO summers (9 of them): 2015, 2014, 2009, 1987, 1977, 1968, 1963, 1958, 1957. Of these, 6 of the 9 carried over to a winter -NAO though the most recent two didn't fwiw. So, perhaps it being El Niño helps the chances to some extent despite the most recent two not doing so.

NAO by month: (I'm counting between +0.25 and -0.25 as neutral)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

I looked at the July years with a -NAO reading lower than -1.70.  Every DJF which followed had some degree of blocking even if they didn’t all have -NAO winters. Remember, we can have winter blocking which doesn’t register as a classic -NAO pattern. 

July 2016….Winter featured a Baffin Island block with a warm and snowy pattern in NYC Metro.

July 2015…..Winter featured a KB block which built back over the pole to Greenland. Winter was warm and snowy.

July 2009….Colder era…Winter featured the strongest blocking in possibly 100s of years. Historic Mid-Atlantic snowfall.

July 1993…..Colder era…Winter featured one of the strongest Arctic Dipole blocks north of Alaska. Brutal Arctic outbreaks and snowy. 

July 1962…Colder era….Winter blocking with not great snowfall for decent winter blocking regimes.

July 1958….Colder era….Winter blocking and not great snowfall.
 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm more and more convinced that this will act more like a moderate event at this point. almost no chance the MEI from this event rivals those of 1982, 1997, and 2016

Watch this thing not couple with the atmosphere or some such and we just see a flood of pacific puke all winter coast to coast.

[Maestrobjwa]

21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Watch this thing not couple with the atmosphere or some such and we just see a flood of pacific puke all winter coast to coast.

If it doesn't...ya wonder if that means ninos just can't couple anymore unless they're strong (thereby eliminating our most fruitful ENSO, smh). I mean...the weak one didn't...now we wait to see if this one will.

[brooklynwx99]

it's going to couple, I am not concerned about that at all. this is nothing like 2018-19

[mitchnick]

41 minutes ago, griteater said:

My eastern U.S. winter 'fears' have slowly migrated from snowman forcing (E Pac) to bluewave forcing (E MC / Far W Pac) , though I reserve the right to change lol.  Thinking now is that the low frequency forcing is going to be favorable for the most part.  I can't imagine the low frequency forcing being focused west of 2014-2015 and what the JMA & JAMSTEC are showing, which is just west of the Dateline...and we don't have any indication that it's going to plow east in 82-83, 97-98 fashion either.  Bigger question may be how much destructive interference we see from the MJO over the course of the winter.

If the MJO can't make it much out of the COD with the development of the Niño, it's hard for me to believe it is going to stray very far from it once the Niño peaks come November/December. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

If the MJO can't make it much out of the COD with the development of the Niño, it's hard for me to believe it is going to stray very far from it once the Niño peaks come November/December. 

forcing from ENSO peaks in January through February, though... Nov/Dec aren't representative of a typical ENSO state

this is why you cash in with Ninas early but you have to wait for Ninos 

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

forcing from ENSO peaks in January through February, though... Nov/Dec aren't representative of a typical ENSO state

this is why you cash in with Ninas early but you have to wait for Ninos 

To be fair … the “amount of RONI” is blurry. 

… if we’re burying warm ENSOs inside a warming world, we don’t know how much forcing is going to apply nor  when.

RONI terminates at a soft horizon. So that can screw things up to the point where it could actually force early and not as much late – then it suddenly looks like it’s not coupled so well. Sound familiar? It is  basically any kind of application of ENSOs correlation based on 1850 through the year 2000 we need to throw it out

…maybe not entirely, but you know what I mean. We don’t live in that world anymore, where those older inference assumptions can be used as readily as a predictive means. I’ve been trying to explain this in different circles for about 15 years actually.  A time in which indeed we have been observing increasing occurrences when strange aspects that don’t seem very well correlated are taking place.

And people will argue that that happens anyway and they’re right. But the frequency increasing is the devil. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I looked at the July years with a -NAO reading lower than -1.70.  Every DJF which followed had some degree of blocking even if they didn’t all have -NAO winters. Remember, we can have winter blocking which doesn’t register as a classic -NAO pattern. 

July 2016….Winter featured a Baffin Island block with a warm and snowy pattern in NYC Metro.

July 2015…..Winter featured a KB block which built back over the pole to Greenland. Winter was warm and snowy.

July 2009….Colder era…Winter featured the strongest blocking in possibly 100s of years. Historic Mid-Atlantic snowfall.

July 1993…..Colder era…Winter featured one of the strongest Arctic Dipole blocks north of Alaska. Brutal Arctic outbreaks and snowy. 

July 1962…Colder era….Winter blocking with not great snowfall for decent winter blocking regimes.

July 1958….Colder era….Winter blocking and not great snowfall.
 

I'll look at the SE US with an extra emphasis on RDU and ATL to see how the SE US did during the six winters you listed:

2016-7: mild overall w/very little SE SN, moderate ZR 1/7 RDU followed by 9F on 1/9; very different ENSO (Niña)

2015-6: mild D; NN to slightly BN J/F; overall DJF AN; very little SE SN but sig ZR 1/22 RDU

2009-10: coldest winter in SE since 1977-8; quite wintry all over with ~1" SN down to Savannah! snowiest winter ATL area since the 3/1993 blizzard; a grade A SE winter

1993-4: cold DJ with 2F RDU 1/19; NN F; 12/22-3 3" SN RDU; sig ZR RDU 2/11; ~avg overall wintry precip; different ENSO (neutral)

1962-3: near wall to wall cold DJF; 12/13: ATL 1F, RDU 4F, damaging orange freeze FL; 12/24-5: major ZR ATL-RDU; 1/24: ATL -3F, RDU: 7F; 1/29: RDU 8F; RDU 6.9" SN followed by 9F 2/27; ATL: 8F 2/22; different ENSO (cold neutral)

1958-9: temps: BN D; NN J; AN F; 12/11: 9.1" SN RDU and 7F on 12/16; ATL 9F on 1/5; RDU moderate ZR 2/3

Overall grades for SE: a mix with avg between B and C

2016-7 F

2015-6: D (Nino)

2009-10: A (Nino)

1993-4: B

1962-3: A

1958-9: B (Nino)

[raindancewx]

PDO is still extremely negative. 

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

2023-08-01T00:00:00Z

-1.68

El Nino, with -PDO values in August on this scale.

1951, 1953, 1963, 1969, 1991, 1994, 2006

I've been seeing people say this September is like 2004 because of the hurricane activity in the Atlantic / weak El Nino sense. In a sensible weather look though those Septembers have been nothing alike so far. We're actually at like B- similarity to early September 2015, which also had a big hurricane Bastardi and some of the other famous dudes thought would hit the East Coast. I think it was Isaias? (Edit: It was Joaquin).

We certainly are not similar to 2009 at the moment. The cold in the West is wrong by placement in 2015 v. 2023 but you at least have a warm streak in the Plains and Northeast like this year.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If it doesn't...ya wonder if that means ninos just can't couple anymore unless they're strong (thereby eliminating our most fruitful ENSO, smh). I mean...the weak one didn't...now we wait to see if this one will.

Well, what it would mean is a mod-strong event per ONI would act weak to moderate and this become the most fruitful.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's going to couple, I am not concerned about that at all. this is nothing like 2018-19

Dumb question, what makes you confident it will couple?

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, what it would mean is a mod-strong event per ONI would act weak to moderate and this become the most fruitful.

Yeah, it seems like there’s a tendency to black-and-white this thing… That’s not what is meant by compensating forces. It’s not all or nothing.
 

 

[brooklynwx99]

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Dumb question, what makes you confident it will couple?

the magnitude of the warm anomalies and the forecasted placement of forcing near the dateline. everything still looks very nino-esque as autumn progresses

[snowman19]

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

PDO is still extremely negative. 

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

2023-08-01T00:00:00Z

-1.68

El Nino, with -PDO values in August on this scale.

1951, 1953, 1963, 1969, 1991, 1994, 2006

I've been seeing people say this September is like 2004 because of the hurricane activity in the Atlantic / weak El Nino sense. In a sensible weather look though those Septembers have been nothing alike so far. We're actually at like B- similarity to early September 2015, which also had a big hurricane Bastardi and some of the other famous dudes thought would hit the East Coast. I think it was Isaias? (Edit: It was Joaquin).

We certainly are not similar to 2009 at the moment. The cold in the West is wrong by placement in 2015 v. 2023 but you at least have a warm streak in the Plains and Northeast like this year.

 

Out of those years, which ones also had +IOD? 

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, griteater said:

My eastern U.S. winter 'fears' have slowly migrated from snowman forcing (E Pac) to bluewave forcing (E MC / Far W Pac) , though I reserve the right to change lol.  Thinking now is that the low frequency forcing is going to be favorable for the most part.  I can't imagine the low frequency forcing being focused west of 2014-2015 and what the JMA & JAMSTEC are showing, which is just west of the Dateline...and we don't have any indication that it's going to plow east in 82-83, 97-98 fashion either.  Bigger question may be how much destructive interference we see from the MJO over the course of the winter.

This El Nino (along with the +IOD) is going to be strong enough to suppress through subsidence and shutdown any MJO activity over the IO and Maritime Continent. It’s already doing that, see the last CPC update. In strong/super Ninos, the low frequency forcing/standing wave completely takes over the show and shuts down the MJO, it becomes a non factor

[bluewave]

This isn’t your canonical -PDO pattern. Notice the solid block of very warm SSTs from Japan to California. No cold ring to be found near the California coast like we had late last winter into the spring. The only remnant from that record breaking cold event is the shrinking cold pool SE Hawaii. We also don’t typically get a strong -EPO +PNA like we had over the summer with a cold PDO. So the WPAC warm pool driven Rossby wave train isn’t allowing the nominal -PDO to couple. This is what we would want to see occur during the winter. Favorable WPAC forcing west of the Dateline vs the unfavorable type near the Maritime Continent. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Out of those years, which ones also had +IOD? 

I know 1963 was one....

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This isn’t your canonical -PDO pattern. Notice the solid block of very warm SSTs from Japan to California. No cold ring to be found near the California coast like we had late last winter into the spring. The only remnant from that record breaking cold event is the shrinking cold pool SE Hawaii. We also don’t typically get a strong -EPO +PNA like we had over the summer with a cold PDO. So the WPAC warm pool driven Rossby wave train isn’t allowing the nominal -PDO to couple. This is what we would want to see occur during the winter. Favorable WPAC forcing west of the Dateline vs the unfavorable type near the Maritime Continent. 

Its stands to reason that there is more variation to the SST pattern this year because we had a near record cold phase last winter. We can all agree that we will not see a repeat of that.

Btw, could you link me to that current SST map?

Thanks.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its stands to reason that there is more variation to the SST pattern this year because we had a near record cold phase last winter. We can all agree that we will not see a repeat of that.

Btw, could you link me to that current SST map?

Thanks.

Hopefully, the more Niña-like -PNA +EPO -PDO pattern in late September turns out to be transitory. At the very least, that will put the brakes on any major Nino warming like we had in August for the time being. The unusually strong trades for an El Niño have picked up again in September after they tried to behave more Nino-like back in August. 

 

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5km/index_5km_ssta.php

 

[griteater]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This El Nino (along with the +IOD) is going to be strong enough to suppress through subsidence and shutdown any MJO activity over the IO and Maritime Continent. It’s already doing that, see the last CPC update. In strong/super Ninos, the low frequency forcing/standing wave completely takes over the show and shuts down the MJO, it becomes a non factor

That's how things 'should' work with the MJO during stronger El Ninos...but as bluewave has previously referenced, the MJO was more active than expected during the 2015-2016 El Nino with warmer SSTs in the W Pacific.

Here are Dec 2015 and Feb 2016:

 

 

Paper: Distinctive MJO Activity during the Boreal Winter of the 2015/16 Super El Niño in Comparison with Other Super El Niño Events | SpringerLink

Many previous studies have demonstrated that the boreal winters of super El Niño events are usually accompanied by severely suppressed Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) activity over the western Pacific due to strong descending motion associated with a weakened Walker Circulation. However, the boreal winter of the 2015/16 super El Niño event is concurrent with enhanced MJO activity over the western Pacific despite its sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) magnitude over the Niño 3.4 region being comparable to the SSTA magnitudes of the two former super El Niño events (i.e., 1982/83 and 1997/98). This study suggests that the MJO enhanced over western Pacific during the 2015/16 super El Niño event is mainly related to its distinctive SSTA structure and associated background thermodynamic conditions. In comparison with the previous super El Niño events, the warming SSTA center of the 2015/16 super El Niño is located further westward, and a strong cold SSTA is not detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the low-level moisture and air temperature (as well as the moist static energy, MSE) tend to increase in the central-western Pacific. In contrast, the low-level moisture and MSE show negative anomalies over the western Pacific during the previous super El Niño events. As the MJO-related horizontal wind anomalies contribute to the further westward warm SST-induced positive moisture and MSE anomalies over the western tropical Pacific in the boreal winter of 2015/16, stronger moisture convergence and MSE advection are generated over the western Pacific and lead to the enhancement of MJO convection.

 

[bluewave]

 

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/32935

Twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool warps the MJO life cycle
 

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5edf/meta

Abstract

The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and expanded substantially over the past decades, which has significantly affected the hydrological cycle and global climate system. It is unclear how the IPWP will change in the future under anthropogenic (ANT) forcing. Here, we quantify the human contribution to the observed IPWP warming/expansion and adjust the projected IPWP changes using an optimal fingerprinting method based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations. We find that more than 95% rapid warming and 85% expansion of the observed IPWP are detected and attributable to human influence. Furthermore, human activities affect IPWP warming through both greenhouse gases and ANT aerosols. The multiple model ensemble mean can capture the ANT warming trend and tends to underestimate the ANT warming trend. After using the observation constraint, the IPWP warming is projected to increase faster than that of the ensemble mean in the 21st Century, and the Indian Ocean warm pool is projected to expand more than previously expected. The rapid warming and expansion of IPWP over the rest of the 21st century will impact the climate system and the life of human beings.

[snowman19]

@GaWxCRW has 3.4 up to over +1.7C, 1+2 is back up to +3.0C and 3 warmed to over +2.2C