El Nino 2023-2024

[George001]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

AGW is obviously a huge concern and temps need to be adjusted for that. I very seriously an early El Nino peak, all the models have a peak around November/December, then a very slow weakening through March. That, along with the healthy +IOD (shown to erode to neutral in January), leads me to believe we see subsidence over the eastern IO and Maritime Continent MJO phases. As far as ENSO orientation, I see it remaining east-lean through the winter…the models all show regions 1+2 and 3 staying warmer than 3.4 and 4 through January, which again makes me doubt west of the dateline La Niña like forcing. And @roardogeast-based El Niño doesn’t always mean complete blowtorch December, i.e. December, 1972. December, 1997 wasn’t a complete torch, warmer than normal, yes, the real blowtorch started in early January and carried through February and into the 1st half of March, 1998

That’s why I think it’s a mistake to use older analogs like 57-58 and assume it would lead to similar results. The climate is completely different now, that’s part of why Joe Bastardi keeps busting too cold. He likes using old analogs but fails to adjust for AGW. If he could accept that AGW is indeed real and adjusted the temp profiles accordingly for his analogs, he would be a better forecaster.

[GaWx]

49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As far as ENSO orientation, I see it remaining east-lean through the winter…the models all show regions 1+2 and 3 staying warmer than 3.4 and 4 through January, which again makes me seriously doubt west of the dateline La Niña like forcing. And @roardogeast-based El Niño doesn’t always mean complete blowtorch December, i.e. December, 1972. December, 1997 wasn’t a complete torch, warmer than normal, yes, the real blowtorch started in early January and carried through February and into the 1st half of March, 1998

1. Why are you calling 1972-3 east-based? I see per ERSST that DJF anomalies averaged higher in 3.4 than in any other region. They're slightly higher than Nino 3 and significantly higher than 1+2. Nino 4 anomalies are much lower than the other three regions. So, it certainly isn't west-based. But with 3.4 having the highest, wouldn't this be considered central rather than east based? The most central region has the highest anomalies.

2. I assume you agree that east-based doesn't always mean mild E US. 1976-7 had the highest anomalies of the four regions in Nino 3 and that was a frigid winter. I do realize it being weak helped its chances.

[snowman19]

1. Why are you calling 1972-3 east-based? I see per ERSST that DJF anomalies averaged higher in 3.4 than in any other region. They're slightly higher than Nino 3 and significantly higher than 1+2. Nino 4 anomalies are much lower than the other three regions. So, it certainly isn't west-based. But with 3.4 having the highest, wouldn't this be considered central rather than east based? The most central region has the highest anomalies.
2. I assume you agree that east-based doesn't always mean mild E US. 1976-7 had the highest anomalies of the four regions in Nino 3 and that was a frigid winter. I do realize it being weak helped its chances.

I stand corrected then, I thought 72-73 was an east-based event to start

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I stand corrected then, I thought 72-73 was an east-based event to start

Well, actually, the Nino 3 anomaly was slightly warmer than 3.4 in December. So, I guess it can be considered east-based to start. But Nino 3.4 was barely warmer in Jan and significantly warmer in Feb leading to a higher DJF in 3.4. I thought you were calling 1972-3 east-based, overall. If not, I misunderstood you. Nino 1+2 averaged cooler than both, especially in Jan and Feb.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

You bring up some great points here. The pacific warm pool that has been linked to climate change has been fucking us over the past few years. In 2014-2015 it was displaced east, the past few years it’s been more west. This year it looks very similar to the past few winters, not 2014-2015. I am on board with a super nino, but even if I am wrong about that and the El Niño peaks at strong instead, there are still so many things working against us. We have extremely warm ssts in the Atlantic, the west displaced pacific warm pool, high solar (+NAO signal especially in Feb), -PDO, etc to worry about. I hope I am wrong but things are not looking good if you want a cold and snowy winter in the east.

Case and point this summer. Should have been much cooler in the U.S. this summer with the near record -NAO-EPO+PNA pattern. 2009 featured roughly similar teleconnections and we were significantly warmer than that summer was. Troughs have been getting crowded out by ridges as the 500mb heights keep rising. 
 

 

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Case and point this summer. Should have been much cooler in the U.S. this summer with the near record -NAO-EPO+PNA pattern. 2009 featured roughly similar teleconnections and we were significantly warmer than that summer was. Troughs have been getting crowded out by ridges as the 500mb heights keep rising. 
 

 

To be fair, that ridge over western Canada was so strong it allowed some big-time heating to occur that wasn't going to be modified on its way south. Weaken that ridge in western Canada to that of 2009 and you lose the back burner heating prior to delivery into the US. For winter, I  hope the better part of that ridge lingers.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

To be fair, that ridge over western Canada was so strong it allowed some big-time heating to occur that wasn't going to be modified on its way south. Weaken that ridge in western Canada to that of 2009 and you lose the back burner heating prior to delivery into the US. For winter, I  hope the better part of that ridge lingers.

That’s the point that I have been making. While the trough in the mid-Atlantic was nearly as deep this June and July as 2009, there was much less cool air available. This is due to the expanding 500 mb ridges pressing in around the smaller troughs. So record 500 mb heights are leading to much less colder air available for the shrinking downstream troughs. This is a very important aspect of a warming climate which gets little discussion. Troughs decades ago were much more expansive and colder. 
 

 

[mitchnick]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s the point that I have been making. While the trough in the mid-Atlantic was nearly as deep this June and July as 2009, there was much less cool air available. This is due to the expanding 500 mb ridges pressing in around the smaller troughs. So record 500 mb heights are leading to much less colder air available for the shrinking downstream troughs. This is a very important aspect of a warming climate which gets little discussion. Troughs decades ago were much more expansive and colder. 
 

 

I should have double-checked before posting. The trough in 2009 was much stronger than this year (in addition to the weaker ridge), so cooler temps would be expected. So I'm not sure  I agree with your statement that the trough this year was nearly as deep.

 

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I should have double-checked before posting. The trough in 2009 was much stronger than this year (in addition to the weaker ridge), so cooler temps would be expected. So I'm not sure  I agree with your statement that the trough this year was nearly as deep.

 

It was nearly as deep in the mid-Atlantic. 2nd lowest June and July heights on record there. But the aerial coverage of the trough was much smaller due to the steadily expanding 500 mb heights since 2009. The ridges were much more expansive this time around leaving smaller and warmer troughs.

 

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was nearly as deep in the mid-Atlantic. 2nd lowest June and July heights on record there. But the aerial coverage of the trough was much smaller due to the steadily expanding 500 mb heights since 2009. The ridges were much more expansive this time around leaving smaller and warmer troughs.

 

That's June to July. I posted June to August. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's June to July. I posted June to August. 

I used June to August because that's what you originally used.

[Terpeast]

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I should have double-checked before posting. The trough in 2009 was much stronger than this year (in addition to the weaker ridge), so cooler temps would be expected. So I'm not sure  I agree with your statement that the trough this year was nearly as deep.

 

Agree, and it’s also not just how strong or deep the trough is, it’s also how strong the accompanying ridge is. 

I’ve been watching the MA summer here and we’ve had a lot of NW flow due to the persistent central US ridge (which oddly doesn’t show on the map above, but it was there). With all the fires in Canada and extreme heat in the west, a weak or even moderate trough in the east isn’t going to bring much colder temperatures. 

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I used June to August because that's what you originally used.

I used June and July to illustrate the point when the trough was at its deepest Ike back in 2009. Were were discussing this in the NYC Metro forum. This should have been a much cooler summer for the region than it was vs past blocky developing El Niño summers. The expanding ridges with record 500mb heights have become a staple of our new climate. All teleconnection combos are getting warmer. 

[mitchnick]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I used June and July to illustrate the point when the trough was at its deepest Ike back in 2009. Were were discussing this in the NYC Metro forum. This should have been a much cooler summer for the region than it was vs past blocky developing El Niño summers. The expanding ridges with record 500mb heights have become a staple of our new climate. All teleconnection combos are getting warmer. 

Well, posted now are June to July for both 09' and this year and the trough in 09' is still way deeper and should be cooler than this year. I understand your argument in general. You may be right, I don't know because I haven't researched it.  But right or wrong, I  don't think the 09' v. 23' comparison can be used fairly in light of the difference in size and depth of the eastern troughs and Canadian ridges. 

[raindancewx]

On 8/30/2023 at 6:44 PM, raindancewx said:

 

 2023  25.83  26.29  27.18  27.96  28.40  28.57  28.32  28.16 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99

 2015  27.05  27.17  27.75  28.52  28.85  28.90  28.75  28.79  28.93  29.08  29.42  29.26

 1997  26.01  26.38  27.04  27.98  28.58  28.82  28.86  28.75  28.85  29.08  29.12  28.89

 1982  26.67  26.59  27.41  28.03  28.39  28.26  27.66  27.58  28.21  28.71  28.62  28.80

 1972  25.62  26.30  27.09  27.89  28.32  28.18  28.14  27.95  27.95  28.26  28.61  28.69

 1965  25.66  26.19  26.94  27.38  27.99  28.09  27.90  27.97  28.01  28.17  28.12  27.96

 1987  27.68  27.88  28.27  28.39  28.56  28.65  28.59  28.42  28.36  27.96  27.77  27.54

CPC updated Nino 3.4. August came in at 28.16C, which they call +1.30C.

In older periods, when the 30-year average is lower, it's more like +1.50C.

You can see the SSTs are for August in Nino 3.4 are colder than 1987, 1997, 2015.

Actual SSTs are pretty close to a blend of 1997 / 1972 in August outside Nino 4. 

Year:  1.2     /   3.0   /   3.4    /  4.0

1972: 23.38 / 26.74 / 27.94 / 28.75

1997: 24.96 / 27.71 /  28.74 / 29.29

Blend:  24.17 / 27.22 / 28.34 / 29.02

2023:  24.33 / 27.09 / 28.16 / 29.69

Not really sure why everyone is obsessed with the Indian Ocean / Nino 4 being warmer than the Eastern zones - you can clearly see that was the case in years like 1997 too.

 

 

 

 

[George BM]

JJA ONI(rounded to nearest tenth): 1.1C

JJA RONI: 0.57C

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Well, posted now are June to July for both 09' and this year and the trough in 09' is still way deeper and should be cooler than this year. I understand your argument in general. You may be right, I don't know because I haven't researched it.  But right or wrong, I  don't think the 09' v. 23' comparison can be used fairly in light of the difference in size and depth of the eastern troughs and Canadian ridges. 

That’s due to the size of the troughs shrinking relative to similar teleconnections in the past. The trough was only to get as deep in a more limited area of the Mid-Atlantic. In a cooler climate, the record -EPO+PNA -NAO would have  produced similar temperatures to 2009 with a much more expansive trough. We have seen similar instances of the warming teleconnection pattern across all seasons. The record -AO and -PNA last December should have been much colder and snowier in the Northeast had it occurred back in the 1950s to 1970s. Many cold and snowy -PNA -AOs back in the old days. But it’s a rarity to get cold -PNAs these days. Even -AO +PNA patterns are getting warmer as was the case with the Christmas flood cutter in 2020. Don also hade a great series of posts on the warming -AO and -NAO patterns. 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s due to the size of the troughs shrinking relative to similar teleconnections in the past. The trough was only to get as deep in a more limited area of the Mid-Atlantic. In a cooler climate, the record -EPO+PNA -NAO would have  produced similar temperatures to 2009 with a much more expansive trough. We have seen similar instances of the warming teleconnection pattern across all seasons. The record -AO and -PNA last December should have been much colder and snowier in the Northeast had it occurred back in the 1950s to 1970s. Many cold and snowy -PNA -AOs back in the old days. But it’s a rarity to get cold -PNAs these days. Even -AO +PNA patterns are getting warmer as was the case with the Christmas flood cutter in 2020. Don also hade a great series of posts on the warming -AO and -NAO patterns. 

Folks tend to associate temperature to those plus and negative signs of those index modes but it really is never about temperature. It’s about mass continuity in the atmosphere; it just so happens to be that colder(warmer) temperatures tend to associate with either of those signs, respectively.

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

 

Actual SSTs are pretty close to a blend of 1997 / 1972 in August outside Nino 4. 

Year:  1.2     /   3.0   /   3.4    /  4.0

1972: 23.38 / 26.74 / 27.94 / 28.75

1997: 24.96 / 27.71 /  28.74 / 29.29

Blend:  24.17 / 27.22 / 28.34 / 29.02

2023:  24.33 / 27.09 / 28.16 / 29.69

Not really sure why everyone is obsessed with the Indian Ocean / Nino 4 being warmer than the Eastern zones - you can clearly see that was the case in years like 1997 too.

 Excellent point. Thus, what's usually analyzed regarding whether or not Nino 4 is warmer than the E zones are anomalies rather than absolutes. If we were instead going by absolutes, Nino 4 would just about always be warmer in all months since its base climo is much warmer. In August as you stated, there hasn't been even one El Niño since at least 1951-2 that wasn't warmest in Nino 4.

 I can find only two El Niños since 1950 for which Nino 4 isn't warmer in all of D, J, and F than all of the other three zones in terms of absolutes: 

 

1982-3

-Jan was warmer in 3.4 than in 4

-Feb was warmer in both 3 and 3.4 than in 4

-DJF was barely warmer in 3.4 than in 4

 

1997-8

-Feb was warmer in 3 than in 4

------------------

 -So, regarding DJF, I've found no single month warmer in 1+2 than in 4

-Regarding DJF averaged out, I've found none warmer in either 1+2 or 3 vs 4. But 1982-3 was warmer (although only barely) in 3.4 vs 4.

-So, anomalies are what are normally compared between regions.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, George BM said:

JJA ONI(rounded to nearest tenth): 1.1C

RONI: 0.57C

So, JJA RONI of 0.57 is a whopping 0.49 cooler than the JJA ONI of 1.06. The 0.49 is possibly the largest amount cooler on record for RONI vs ONI.

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Not really sure why everyone is obsessed with the Indian Ocean / Nino 4 being warmer than the Eastern zones - you can clearly see that was the case in years like 1997 too.

 

That’s not the point though. Of course Nino 4 is warmer than the eastern zones. But it’s the magnitude of the temperatures in that region and the WPAC which are higher than we saw back in years like 1997. So this is why the forcing was pulled much further west this summer vs 1997. We have to look at threshold temperatures in the various regions to determine where the forcing sets up. Now we have larger warm pools of +30 C SST heat which act as forcing magnets. 1997 had no such competition for forcing so the central  to eastern zones were able to run the show. This hasn’t been the case so far in 2023.

[snowman19]

That’s not the point though. Of course Nino 4 is warmer than the eastern zones. But it’s the magnitude of the temperatures in that region and the WPAC which are higher than we saw back in years like 1997. So this is why the forcing was pulled much further west this summer vs 1997. We have to look at threshold temperatures in the various regions to determine where the forcing sets up. Now we have larger warm pools of +30 C SST heat which act as forcing magnets. 1997 had no such competition for forcing so the central  to eastern zones were able to run the show. This hasn’t been the case so far in 2023.

I’m wondering if the strengthening +IOD (rapid warming of the western Indian Ocean, rapid cooling around Indonesia along with what should be associated subsidence in that region will finally shift the forcing east. We already saw some eastward migration of the forcing in August. This should lead to more -SOI and a boost to the El Niño warming. It’s going to be a very interesting 3 months coming up

[snowman19]

The OLR plots are showing the MJO moving into the PAC (phases 7 and 8) after 9/20. If correct, it’s going to trigger a WWB/DWKW and that is when we should see a substantial warming. Also expecting the OHC to continue rising through November, as is climo for that https://x.com/piw44/status/1698737106275955143?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[ORH_wxman]

17 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Well, posted now are June to July for both 09' and this year and the trough in 09' is still way deeper and should be cooler than this year. I understand your argument in general. You may be right, I don't know because I haven't researched it.  But right or wrong, I  don't think the 09' v. 23' comparison can be used fairly in light of the difference in size and depth of the eastern troughs and Canadian ridges. 

The CONUS pattern isn’t that similar. The 2009 western ridge was way better placed for cool anomalies over the east and you had a simultaneous NAO block that kept it trapped in the northeast. If we had a 2009 pattern this year, it would be much colder. Not as cold as 2009 but a lot closer than this year was. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I’m wondering if the strengthening +IOD (rapid warming of the western Indian Ocean, rapid cooling around Indonesia along with what should be associated subsidence in that region will finally shift the forcing east. We already saw some eastward migration of the forcing in August. This should lead to more -SOI and a boost to the El Niño warming. It’s going to be a very interesting 3 months coming up

My main question with that is how fast the forcing reversed once the record IOD peaked back in the fall of 2019. This IOD appears that it will be weaker than that one. Plus we had WPAC Nina-like MJO forcing activity following the IOD peak in the fall of 2015. Doesn’t need to go completely neutral for a rebound in WPAC SSTs. We can remember the record breaking SST rebound near Indonesia and Australia during our winter in 19-20. 

[snowman19]

My main question with that is how fast the forcing reversed once the record IOD peaked back in the fall of 2019. This IOD appears that it will be weaker than that one. Plus we had WPAC Nina-like MJO forcing activity following the IOD peak in the fall of 2015. Doesn’t need to go completely neutral for a rebound in WPAC SSTs. We can remember the record breaking SST rebound near Indonesia and Australia during our winter in 19-20. 

If you want an end to the La Niña like forcing and get a cooling WPAC this is the way to do it (possible super El Niño and healthy +IOD for several months, -SOI, MJO waves propagating into the Pacific). All the models show this Nino feeding back and coupling very well atmospherically, evidenced by the raging STJ being shown on the seasonal models. The models also show that the Nino isn’t going to be in a hurry to decay once it peaks around December. They don’t show the IOD going back to neutral until January. The forcing response may take a bit, assuming the OLR plots are correct, which they probably are, and this MJO advances into the PAC, a big warming in the ENSO regions and OHC should come late this month into October with the wave stomping out the trade winds and causing a WWB/DWKW behind it. It’s going to be interesting to say the least

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Folks tend to associate temperature to those plus and negative signs of those index modes but it really is never about temperature. It’s about mass continuity in the atmosphere; it just so happens to be that colder(warmer) temperatures tend to associate with either of those signs, respectively.

 

The nature of the 500 mb or surface patterns that those indices represent has been changing. We have been seeing expansion of the ridges and shrinking of the troughs associated with the teleconnections. Simon Lee has really simplified the indices down to several well observed 500 mb patterns. It’s a great paper. 
 

 

[snowman19]

@Gawx New record for this Nino event in the daily region 3.4 value….up to over +1.6C on both OISST and CRW https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png

[roardog]

56 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx New record for this Nino event in the daily region 3.4 value….up to over +1.6C on both OISST and CRW https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png

1+2 under 3.0 for the first time since June I believe 

[GaWx]

OHC is keeping up its steady rise. It is as of ~Aug 30th near +1.30 and not far from the highest so far this El Niño: