El Nino 2023-2024

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is exactly why I am befuddled by the "classic east-based el nino" comments. Doesn't mean it will end up favorable for eastern US winter enthusiasts, but it is what it is....aside from the SST configuration, that statement is factually incorrect.

This is the first time we have seen an El Niño evolution like this. So there aren’t any analog years for this type of development. This event is doing it down thing and we’ll just have to wait and see where the forcing lines up from the fall into winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the first time we have seen an El Niño evolution like this. So there aren’t any analog years for this type of development. This event is doing it down thing and we’ll just have to wait and see where the forcing lines up from the fall into winter. 

One thing I am very confident of is that this el nino will not be as a prominent a driver in the atmosphere as the robust ONI implies...this is why I have included moderate seasons in my preliminary composites. The ONI doesn't always necessarily tell the whole story, as we saw last year during the la nina.

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

One thing I am very confident of is that this el nino will not be as a prominent a driver in the atmosphere as the robust ONI implies...this is why I have included moderate seasons in my preliminary composites. The ONI doesn't always necessarily tell the whole story, as we saw last year during the la nina.

This El Niño isn’t going to go over +2.0C and not be a real prominent driver IMO. There is an atmospheric lag right now because we are just getting out of a semipermanent 4 year in a row La Niña state. We aren’t just going to flip a switch. I think by November/December, there will be no question whatsoever that El Niño is going to be a very major factor this coming winter

[roardog]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Is the strongest WWB since early June really saying much though? 

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This El Niño isn’t going to go over +2.0C and not be a real prominent driver IMO. There is an atmospheric lag right now because we are just getting out of a semipermanent 4 year in a row La Niña state. We aren’t just going to flip a switch. I think by November/December, there will be no question whatsoever that El Niño is going to be a very major factor this coming winter

That isn't what I said and I am still not sure the ONI peaks over 2.0.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One thing I am very confident of is that this el nino will not be as a prominent a driver in the atmosphere as the robust ONI implies...this is why I have included moderate seasons in my preliminary composites. The ONI doesn't always necessarily tell the whole story, as we saw last year during the la nina.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I expect the RONI and MEI to peak at around 1.5...so yes, a pretty strong driver....just not of the historic caliber that the ONI may suggest.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I expect the RONI and MEI to peak at around 1.5...so yes, a pretty strong driver....just not of the historic caliber that the ONI may suggest.

and as we know, the difference between a high-end moderate and near super Nino are pretty profound even disregarding forcing

I initially thought that the more moderate Modoki-esque years like 1986, 2002, and 2009 were completely useless. at this point, when looking at the lower RONI and possible west-based forcing, those years now need to be seriously considered. 2009 is actually a great analog when looking at QBO, PDO, and the summer pattern so far, surprisingly enough. with that being said, years like 1991 and 1982 still remain on the table. 1991 is also a great analog

this could be a scenario where due to the WPAC warm pool, a 2C basin-wide super Nino could have the same effects as a 1.5C Modoki or close to it. I think this is what some models are trying to point out. we just don't know. pretty fascinating

[griteater]

On 8/2/2023 at 6:49 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks for this....JMA doesn't go back as far as this data. Will definitely be borrowing this data and referencing you, of course.

1926-27, 1919-20, 1940-1941, 1957-1958 and 1965-1966...all great winters.

Thanks.  Keep in mind that the year shown on those charts is the winter ending / spring of the 2nd year.  So, 1926 on the chart is for 1925-1926 (you were correct with 1957-1958 as 1958 is displayed on the chart).

[griteater]

TAO subsurface loop in 10 day increments for Jul 13 > Jul 23 > Aug 2.  Some slight weakening shown with the intensity of the pool of warm anomalies in the E Pac

[brooklynwx99]

15 minutes ago, griteater said:

TAO subsurface loop in 10 day increments for Jul 13 > Jul 23 > Aug 2.  Some slight weakening shown with the intensity of the pool of warm anomalies in the E Pac

yeah we should see everything drift westward over the next month or two. this is a good start

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, griteater said:

Thanks.  Keep in mind that the year shown on those charts is the winter ending / spring of the 2nd year.  So, 1926 on the chart is for 1925-1926 (you were correct with 1957-1958 as 1958 is displayed on the chart).

Do you have a site or anything that I could give a shout out in reference? Not that I have a huge following, but every bit helps...it what be nice to get that info out the with the wealth of info that you bring to the table.

[griteater]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you have a site or anything that I could give a shout out in reference? Not that I have a huge following, but every bit helps...it what be nice to get that info out the with the wealth of info that you bring to the table.

Thanks man, no worries. I do not. Just the Twitter account 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

and as we know, the difference between a high-end moderate and near super Nino are pretty profound even disregarding forcing

I initially thought that the more moderate Modoki-esque years like 1986, 2002, and 2009 were completely useless. at this point, when looking at the lower RONI and possible west-based forcing, those years now need to be seriously considered. 2009 is actually a great analog when looking at QBO, PDO, and the summer pattern so far, surprisingly enough. with that being said, years like 1991 and 1982 still remain on the table. 1991 is also a great analog

this could be a scenario where due to the WPAC warm pool, a 2C basin-wide super Nino could have the same effects as a 1.5C Modoki or close to it. I think this is what some models are trying to point out. we just don't know. pretty fascinating

1972, as well....however, 1972 and 1991 lose points when considering the RONI  AND MEI:

1972 AMJ RONI .80, MJ MEI 1.4

1982 AMJ RONI .68, MJ MEI 1.4

1991 AMJ RONI .44, MJ MEI 1.1

2023 AMJ RONI .07, MJ MEI 0.2

These numbers are much more in line with 1986 and 2009. My issue with 1986 is the PDO and lower solar.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, griteater said:

Thanks.  Keep in mind that the year shown on those charts is the winter ending / spring of the 2nd year.  So, 1926 on the chart is for 1925-1926 (you were correct with 1957-1958 as 1958 is displayed on the chart).

Yes, I know.

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That isn't what I said and I am still not sure the ONI peaks over 2.0.

Snowman believes it'll be a super east based Nino aka a torch snowless winter (his favorite) but clearly others have pointed out that this Nino is unprecedented due to multiple conflicting factors. 

I'm still inclined to believe we actually need the Nino to be very strong in order to override the Pacific warm pool and western forcing otherwise it'll be a Nina style pattern again 

[snowman19]

Snowman believes it'll be a super east based Nino aka a torch snowless winter (his favorite) but clearly others have pointed out that this Nino is unprecedented due to multiple conflicting factors. 
I'm still inclined to believe we actually need the Nino to be very strong in order to override the Pacific warm pool and western forcing otherwise it'll be a Nina style pattern again 

Go crawl back under your rock you clueless, half-wit troll. You have no idea what you’re even talking about. Useless member

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Snowman believes it'll be a super east based Nino aka a torch snowless winter (his favorite) but clearly others have pointed out that this Nino is unprecedented due to multiple conflicting factors. 

I'm still inclined to believe we actually need the Nino to be very strong in order to override the Pacific warm pool and western forcing otherwise it'll be a Nina style pattern again 

there is going to be strong Nino forcing here. not concerned about anything Nina-related. no need

[snowman19]

People aren’t going to be asking where the Nino atmospheric response is very soon: 

 

[George BM]

MJJ ONI: 0.8C (nearest tenth deg)

MJJ RONI: 0.33C

[GaWx]

1) The July OISST for 3.4 based on averaging the dailies calculated to be +1.10.

2) The July ERSST for 3.4, which is direct input into ONI, was just released and was +1.00. So, ERSST continues to come in slightly cooler than OISST in 3.4, which has been the case since December of 2022.

3) The MJJ ONI (ERSST based) was calculated to be/released at +0.77.

4) The MJJ RONI was released at +0.33. That means MJJ RONI was 0.44 cooler than MJJ ONI.

5) RONI-ONI: trending down since JJA of 2022, when it was only -0.01. Here are them since DJF:

DJF: -0.14

JFM: -0.17

FMA: -0.26

MAM: -0.34

AMJ: -0.41

MJJ: -0.44

[George001]

Most recent tri monthly value of .8 is in line with the how the 1965-1966 El Niño evolved. That El Niño grew into a super nino, peaking at 2.0 ONI in November/December. Based on the most recent data, I am changing my prediction from a strong nino (1.8 ONI) to roughly 2.2 ONI (super nino).

[George001]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there is going to be strong Nino forcing here. not concerned about anything Nina-related. no need

Yeah isn’t worrying about whether the enso Will couple or not usually only a factor in weak events? If so we wouldn’t need to worry about that since we will get a super nino. 

[brooklynwx99]

42 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah isn’t worrying about whether the enso Will couple or not usually only a factor in weak events? If so we wouldn’t need to worry about that since we will get a super nino. 

“will” is a bit of an overstatement. i’m still favoring strong, and even if it does get to 2-2.1C, the RONI would likely be around 1.7, keeping the effects more strong than super anyway

[griteater]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Most recent tri monthly value of .8 is in line with the how the 1965-1966 El Niño evolved. That El Niño grew into a super nino, peaking at 2.0 ONI in November/December. Based on the most recent data, I am changing my prediction from a strong nino (1.8 ONI) to roughly 2.2 ONI (super nino).

 

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

“will” is a bit of an overstatement. i’m still favoring strong, and even if it does get to 2-2.1C, the RONI would likely be around 1.7, keeping the effects more strong than super anyway

Yeah, I just don't see super with this one.  It's got a heckuva long way to go to reach that level, and the zonal wind, SST anomaly layout, and subsurface behavior just isn't where it needs to be.  Not buying the aggressive models, including the Euro.  But hey, I've been wrong plenty of times before

And when I say super nino, I mean at least 2 tri-monthlies with +2.0 or above (I like using the highest 3 tri-monthlies averaging out to +2.0 or higher)

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

“will” is a bit of an overstatement. i’m still favoring strong, and even if it does get to 2-2.1C, the RONI would likely be around 1.7, keeping the effects more strong than super anyway

CPC/NCEP continues to favor a moderate to strong event. Plenty of opinions in the twittersphere and elsewhere. Some are hyperbolic and baseless, driven by an agenda. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

“will” is a bit of an overstatement. i’m still favoring strong, and even if it does get to 2-2.1C, the RONI would likely be around 1.7, keeping the effects more strong than super anyway

Yes.

[Typhoon Tip]

Tend to bias my opinion on a heavier, spicier RONI application. Personally like the study and suspect it is on point; it's just probably not inclusive enough for not yet knowing what all the offset factors really are. Given that there are 2ndary/...tertiary emergent feedback involved in the ongoing shenanigans of the total planetary integration  - give the study time. 

I'm not saying that we're headed for an “El Sin Sentido" ... just that I suspect RONIism is an evolving/ fluid aspect that probably is also a changing with +delta year to subsequent year.  As the Earth warms and the HC integration with the rest of the westerlies ...and even the Ferril latitude trades are effected, there are interferences as yet unknown ... et all.