El Nino 2023-2024

[GaWx]

Today's weekly update of SSTa for Nino regions:

1+2: stayed at +2.9
3: stayed at +1.4
3.4: dropped from +1.0 to +0.9
4: dropped from +0.7 to +0.6

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We knew that was happening. The +3.2C was ridiculously overdone. +2.5C is definitely reasonable and within the realm I’m expecting for the November/December peak. I think the ultimate peak is +2.1C - +2.5C and it occurs late November/December

 I'm looking for more BoM 3.4 reductions in future runs based on how poorly it did in June in combination with the recent sluggishness of Nino 3.4 and overall neutral SOI the last 30 days. I'm still at a chance for a low end super peak, the highest chance being for a strong peak (supported by impressive June +1.45 OHC), and a small chance for +1.3 to +1.4.

[jconsor]

It is unlikely that in the face of significant easterly anomalies in the central Pacific through mid-Jul, the waning subsurface warmth will be enough to foster any further warming in the Nino 3.4 and 4 regions.  If anything, I would expect some slight cooling.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^That's a good post. I'm worried about the cold pool developing in the central-subsurface too. The mid-July -PNA may be with an enhancement of this. It's been a tough area to stay constantly warm since the Winter, with a few short term cooler pushes having happened since March, overall a weaker +. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, jconsor said:

It is unlikely that in the face of significant easterly anomalies in the central Pacific through mid-Jul, the waning subsurface warmth will be enough to foster any further warming in the Nino 3.4 and 4 regions.  If anything, I would expect some slight cooling.

 

 Nino 3.4 has warmed the last couple of days on all 3 datasets. However, Nino 3.4 is still not quite back to its early June highs on any of them. And Nino 4 is well below (0.2+) its late June highs. OTOH, Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 are today at new highs on all 3 datasets:

Nino 1+2:

OISST: +3.4
CRW: +3.3
CDAS: +2.9

Nino 3: 

OISST: +1.5   
CRW: +1.6
CDAS: +1.3

 

[snowman19]

 Nino 3.4 has warmed the last couple of days on all 3 datasets. However, Nino 3.4 is still not quite back to its early June highs on any of them. And Nino 4 is well below (0.2+) its late June highs. OTOH, Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 are today at new highs on all 3 datasets:
Nino 1+2:
OISST: +3.4
CRW: +3.3
CDAS: +2.9
Nino 3: 
OISST: +1.5   
CRW: +1.6
CDAS: +1.3
 

Region 4 is neutral again, the calls by some that this is going to turn into a Modoki look to be in very huge trouble. This El Nino is more east-based than 1997 and 1982. I think once the seasonal MJO/WWB parade gets going in August/September, region 3.4 warming should really take off. The SST warmth in regions 3 and 1+2 is extremely impressive as is the subsurface there. The DWKWs keep breaking at the South American coast, which is something we aren’t used to and it’s keeping the Bjerknes feedback loop going in the eastern regions

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Region 4 is neutral again, the calls by some that this is going to turn into a Modoki look to be in very huge trouble. This El Nino is more east-based than 1997 and 1982. I think once the seasonal MJO/WWB parade gets going in August/September, region 3.4 warming should really take off. The SST warmth in regions 3 and 1+2 is extremely impressive as is the subsurface there. The DWKWs keep breaking at the South American coast, which is something we aren’t used to and it’s keeping the Bjerknes feedback loop going in the eastern regions

Region 4 is actually in all 3 datasets in lower end weak El Niño territory, not neutral.

[George BM]

A tri-monthly ONI of 0.5C for AMJ per CPC.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

[raindancewx]

Here is an updated look at how Nino 3.4 is behaving. 
Nino 3.4 is currently pretty close to 1987 (28.65), 2002 (28.44).
Still well below 1997 (28.82) and 2015 (28.90).
1957 should start to fall off as a good match for a while if Nino 3.4 stays 
in the mid-28s.

1957  26.04 26.54  27.46  28.23  28.55  28.36  28.17  27.69  27.44  27.42  27.62  27.90
1972  25.62 26.30  27.09  27.89  28.32  28.18  28.14  27.95  27.95  28.26  28.61  28.69
1997  26.01  26.38  27.04  27.98  28.58  28.82  28.86  28.75  28.85  29.08  29.12  28.89
Mean 25.89 26.41  27.20  28.03  28.48  28.45
2023  25.83 26.30  27.19  27.96  28.40  28.54 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Remember when you were convinced this year was definitely going to be a Modoki? Or how you thought last winter was going to be a Nino at one point? I’d show some humility at this point

Thread banter at 9 month lead time? Link the forecast, please. That is one Twitter link you won't find lol I have said this before, but I completely check out every spring, so those early thoughts are always guesses...nothing more. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Region 4 is neutral again, the calls by some that this is going to turn into a Modoki look to be in very huge trouble. This El Nino is more east-based than 1997 and 1982. I think once the seasonal MJO/WWB parade gets going in August/September, region 3.4 warming should really take off. The SST warmth in regions 3 and 1+2 is extremely impressive as is the subsurface there. The DWKWs keep breaking at the South American coast, which is something we aren’t used to and it’s keeping the Bjerknes feedback loop going in the eastern regions

Its going to be basin wide.

[MJO812]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Remember when you were convinced this year was definitely going to be a Modoki? Or how you thought last winter was going to be a Nino at one point? I’d show some humility at this point

You are starting really early this year

Keep it up and you might be 5 posted before winter 

[GaWx]

 The June ERSST for 3.4 came out at only 0.81. I say only 0.81 because that compares to the OISST for June calculating out to 0.93. For comparison, the June CDAS was near 0.78. So, ERSST was much closer to CDAS than OISST in June and is one reason I keep track of CDAS as kind of a lower boundary to where ERSST might be. By the way, the May ERSST (0.46) also was lower than the OISST (0.49). The May CDAS was ~0.39, meaning ERSST in this case was closer to OISST than CDAS in May.
 

Monthly ERSST:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

[GaWx]

 The AMJ RONI came out to only +0.07 vs the ONI of +0.47.

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

You are starting really early this year
Keep it up and you might be 5 posted before winter 

What is your hero’s Joe Bastardi, Tony Pann, Mark Margavage and Henry Margusity saying Metsfan?  

 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

@Gawx Is there confirmation that region 3 has shot up to +1.9C?

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx Is there confirmation that region 3 has shot up to +1.9C?

 No, there's confirmation that he may be drunk. Nino 3 is nowhere near +1.95 (which is what he claimed in that tweet) per three datasets I follow each day. Even warm biased CRW is only at +1.652 as of today. OISST was only at +1.493 yesterday and at very most will be +1.6 when today's is released (comes out later in the day). (The cool biased CDAS is at a mere +1.338.)

 So, today's range for Nino 3 is +1.65 (and that's based on a dataset that tends to be warm biased) or lower with +1.60 being about the warmest it can realistically be. Thus, I can say for the 2nd time in 4 days that Mario Ramirez is clearly MUCH too warm in Nino 3.

 For those who didn't see it, Mario claimed Nino 3 was up to +1.75 on July 1st when the warm biased CRW was only +1.559 and OISST was a mere +1.416:

 So, my current correction factor for Mario Ramirez Nino 3 SSTa based on these two tweets is to subtract 0.3 C from what he claims to give me the high end of where Nino 3 realistically can be that day.

*Edit: Today's Nino 3 OISST just came out: only +1.502.

Aside: Nino 1+2 is today up to +3.4 on OISST but remains at +3.3 on CRW.

Nino 3.4 is modestly warmer today (+0.02 per average)

 TAO is very slightly warmer today

[snowman19]

@gawx This looks like the real deal for later this month. If this is correct (Paul Roundy says it is) a very strong MJO event with an associated major WWB is going to take shape. If it happens, this will couple the atmosphere, cause a strong DWKW and we will see major warming in region 3.4 and pushing east into 3 and 1+2. It will also help to really get the +IOD going and constructively interfere with the El Niño. It needs to be monitored very closely

[roardog]

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@gawx This looks like the real deal for later this month. If this is correct (Paul Roundy says it is) a very strong MJO event with an associated major WWB is going to take shape. If it happens, this will couple the atmosphere, cause a strong DWKW and we will see major warming in region 3.4 and pushing east into 3 and 1+2. It will also help to really get the +IOD going and constructively interfere with the El Niño. It needs to be monitored very closely

Why do you feel it’s the real deal this time? What’s different this time? I’m still waiting on the super positive IOD that twitter posts have been forecasting since the beginning of May. The latest number is actually negative. lol

it could very well happen this time but the longer range models haven’t exactly been stellar with this stuff so far this year. 
 

Oh yeah, I’m also waiting on the rapid change to a positive PDO from the May twitter posts too.

 

[snowman19]

Why do you feel it’s the real deal this time? What’s different this time? I’m still waiting on the super positive IOD that twitter posts have been forecasting since the beginning of May. The latest number is actually negative. lol
it could very well happen this time but the longer range models haven’t exactly been stellar with this stuff so far this year. 
 
Oh yeah, I’m also waiting on the rapid change to a positive PDO from the May twitter posts too.

 

Oh yea, and I’m waiting for the big ENSO region 1+2 SST drop to an iceberg that you’ve been posting is coming since the end of March…

[roardog]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

26 minutes ago, roardog said:

Why do you feel it’s the real deal this time? What’s different this time? I’m still waiting on the super positive IOD that twitter posts have been forecasting since the beginning of May. The latest number is actually negative. lol
it could very well happen this time but the longer range models haven’t exactly been stellar with this stuff so far this year. 
 
Oh yeah, I’m also waiting on the rapid change to a positive PDO from the May twitter posts too.

 

Oh yea, and I’m waiting for the big ENSO region 1+2 SST drop to an iceberg that you’ve been posting is coming since the end of March…

I haven’t posted anything even close to that. I’ve posted about how the CFS continues to forecast 1+2 to begin dropping rapidly which seems to defy the current subsurface conditions. 
 

 

[snowman19]

[Typhoon Tip]

People must have access to MJO models that are not found thru CPC’s web resource because there’s not much suggestion there at this time. 

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 7/1/2023 at 3:29 PM, raindancewx said:

I've uploaded my main analog model here for anyone interested with data through 2022-23.

It took me years to develop, but without the AMO updating any more, it's not going to be usable the way I've used it. It's still very powerful as an analog tool though. It basically allows you to do regressions without math, i.e., what if we had the exact same conditions, but the Atlantic was cold? What if we had the same Atlantic/Pacific, but the El Nino was weaker, etc. What if we had the same El Nino and Pacific and Atlantic, but the prior ENSO event in winter was different?

I've included how I calculated / sourced the variables to the right of the data as well. If you want to help me out, you can tip me on PayPal - I have quite a few other things I can share or develop if anyone tips.

https://t.co/wsurUGcxYv

https://file.io/vfeFLkdfbK1e

 

Happy to contribute and check it out.

Thanks for sharing.

[bluewave]

While June  Nino 3.4 was behind 1997 and 2015 at +0.81, it was still significant early development for this time of year.

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/dashboard.html

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

While June  Nino 3.4 was behind 1997 and 2015 at +0.81, it was still significant early development for this time of year.

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/dashboard.html

Interesting this graph shows most ninos pause or slow development late spring into summer, then pick up a second wind in the fall into winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Again, the subsurface warmth is getting suffocated out. In the long range, it will be hard for the El Nino to continue to strengthen rapidly with central-subsurface profile like this. 

I've done research correlating this region with N. Hemisphere pattern, and the developing of cool anomalies supports -PNA conditions. 

This generality continues into the Winter: The more warm or cold the central-ENSO-subsurface is, the more the N. Pacific pattern will or won't react. (I've tested OLR, 850mb winds, SLP, SSTs, and 200mb winds, sigma, etc, and the central-subsurface has the highest correlation of all at D+0.)