El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

JMA looks like the CANSIPS...mod-strong, basin wide ordeal with high latitude blocking and -PDO

[40/70 Benchmark]

Again...I have no issue with a neutral to negative PDO ....but just not sure a top 5 el nino in terms of intensity, or extremely eastern biased ordeal is a certainty. 

[snowman19]

[raindancewx]

One weird thing about this sequence is that the Modoki La Nina and traditional El Ninos often both favor the West for heavy snow. I wouldn't necessarily expect massively different snowfall patterns in a traditional El Nino - I'd look for good snows for a lot of the West, with fluky heavy snows in the South. I thought the NE would do alright for snow by Northern New England last year. But this year, you'd probably just see more fluky snows in the East generally.

If you look at snow in the five years I listed (1997-98, 1991-92, 1972-73) minus (1957-58, 2014-15), it's likely quite similar.

If we have a strong El Nino, that is traditional (not a Modoki and east based), with a -PDO, then the obvious years to subtract out are 2014-15 and 1957-58 which are super +PDO events and pretty snowy in the Northeast.

The blend for this winter is going to need three unusual/rare components:

- Huge warm up year over year in DJF (+2.0C y/y is doable - and very rare)

- Volcanic winter 

- PDO & ENSO in opposite phases

These are your "cold to warm"  by +2C or greater warm up years for Nino 3.4 -

 

[raindancewx]

1995-96 is interesting as a near perfect anti-log, at least conceptually:

- First full recovery from Pinatubo (2023 is still seeing volcanic distortions)

- East-based La Nina (east based El Nino)

- Positive PDO (Negative PDO)

- Followed an El Nino (followed a La Nina)

- Near solar minimum (near solar maximum)

- Weak ENSO (strong ENSO)

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Again...I have no issue with a neutral to negative PDO ....but just not sure a top 5 el nino in terms of intensity, or extremely eastern biased ordeal is a certainty. 

Yea ill move my goal post of weak el nino to moderate at this point. Still not thinking super nino If this wwb works out decently we could see a peak near strong not sure we see consecutively yet to label a strong nino but regardless this will be notable to watch unfold in june and july with ssts. We may get lucky if this develops quickly and doesnt stay strong through late fall and winter. Otherwise expecting below average winter again with the random chance of getting a single large storm similar to 15-16 that would put folks near average. Crossing my fingers a more moderate approach sets up.

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

One weird thing about this sequence is that the Modoki La Nina and traditional El Ninos often both favor the West for heavy snow. I wouldn't necessarily expect massively different snowfall patterns in a traditional El Nino - I'd look for good snows for a lot of the West, with fluky heavy snows in the South. I thought the NE would do alright for snow by Northern New England last year. But this year, you'd probably just see more fluky snows in the East generally.

If you look at snow in the five years I listed (1997-98, 1991-92, 1972-73) minus (1957-58, 2014-15), it's likely quite similar.

If we have a strong El Nino, that is traditional (not a Modoki and east based), with a -PDO, then the obvious years to subtract out are 2014-15 and 1957-58 which are super +PDO events and pretty snowy in the Northeast.

The blend for this winter is going to need three unusual/rare components:

- Huge warm up year over year in DJF (+2.0C y/y is doable - and very rare)

- Volcanic winter 

- PDO & ENSO in opposite phases

These are your "cold to warm"  by +2C or greater warm up years for Nino 3.4 -

 

Where do you get these maps from? Buffalo had a top 5 snowfall year and according to your map we didn't. I had 185" here with annual around 120" and it shows me 50% of normal last winter.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Where do you get these maps from? Buffalo had a top 5 snowfall year and according to your map we didn't. I had 185" here with annual around 120" and it shows me 50% of normal last winter.

Pretty sure its because those maps don’t have the resolution to convey such limited areas like lake effect snow belts. 

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

One weird thing about this sequence is that the Modoki La Nina and traditional El Ninos often both favor the West for heavy snow. I wouldn't necessarily expect massively different snowfall patterns in a traditional El Nino - I'd look for good snows for a lot of the West, with fluky heavy snows in the South. I thought the NE would do alright for snow by Northern New England last year. But this year, you'd probably just see more fluky snows in the East generally.

If you look at snow in the five years I listed (1997-98, 1991-92, 1972-73) minus (1957-58, 2014-15), it's likely quite similar.

If we have a strong El Nino, that is traditional (not a Modoki and east based), with a -PDO, then the obvious years to subtract out are 2014-15 and 1957-58 which are super +PDO events and pretty snowy in the Northeast.

The blend for this winter is going to need three unusual/rare components:

- Huge warm up year over year in DJF (+2.0C y/y is doable - and very rare)

- Volcanic winter 

- PDO & ENSO in opposite phases

These are your "cold to warm"  by +2C or greater warm up years for Nino 3.4 -

 

Had you hid the years so I don’t see 72-73 or 97-98, I’d take those maps and run to the bank!

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Pretty sure its because those maps don’t have the resolution to convey such limited areas like lake effect snow belts. 

Makes sense but those maps are pretty terrible as quite a few counties had above average snowfall across WNY.

[jconsor]

19 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Perhaps it's poorly worded or perhaps I'm misunderstanding here, but I disagree on one part -- this comes off as classic over-detection of correlation = causation. You set up and fail to show how the causation works as far as a transmission mechanism is concerned from the *subsurface* to the atmosphere (and specifically not SSTs, for some odd reason) which, by default, are not in contact with one another. This literally makes no physical sense. Should have left it at the AAM pattern.

Maybe you meant SST trends leading to a +AAM tendency? Struggling with this one.

Hi, thanks for the constructive feedback/criticism.  I agree my Twitter thread was not well-worded.  A better explanation would have been that the extensive subsurface warmth slowly shifting from the dateline area into the central Pacific eroded the cool pool in the E. Pacific and led to surface warming during the fall and winter (see attached SST cross-sections from Oct and Dec '22 and Feb '23), which in turn likely favored a more +AAM state in the atmosphere.

FYI, there is some evidence from recent research that upwelling of cold pools below the surface can influence the strength and location of the Walker Circulation, which has a significant influence on the atmospheric pattern across Asia and N. America.  It is not hard to envision that upwelling anomalously warm subsurface water could have similar impacts.

See https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d5e/pdf
and https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL079494

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

One weird thing about this sequence is that the Modoki La Nina and traditional El Ninos often both favor the West for heavy snow. I wouldn't necessarily expect massively different snowfall patterns in a traditional El Nino - I'd look for good snows for a lot of the West, with fluky heavy snows in the South. I thought the NE would do alright for snow by Northern New England last year. But this year, you'd probably just see more fluky snows in the East generally.

If you look at snow in the five years I listed (1997-98, 1991-92, 1972-73) minus (1957-58, 2014-15), it's likely quite similar.

If we have a strong El Nino, that is traditional (not a Modoki and east based), with a -PDO, then the obvious years to subtract out are 2014-15 and 1957-58 which are super +PDO events and pretty snowy in the Northeast.

The blend for this winter is going to need three unusual/rare components:

- Huge warm up year over year in DJF (+2.0C y/y is doable - and very rare)

- Volcanic winter 

- PDO & ENSO in opposite phases

These are your "cold to warm"  by +2C or greater warm up years for Nino 3.4 -

 

I think we can toss 1976-1977 based on the PDO....was pretty positive that year.

[snowman19]

This background state makes me think that once the WWB hits this Nino is really going to go into overdrive and take off, our background state now is way warmer than 1997 and 1982 and even 2015

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This background state makes me think that once the WWB hits this Nino is really going to go into overdrive and take off, our background state now is way warmer than 1997 and 1982 and even 2015

Everyone run and hide before the ENSO eats us all alive

[roardog]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everyone run and hide before the ENSO eats us all alive

Truly frightening. lol 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we can toss 1976-1977 based on the PDO....was pretty positive that year.

 Also, 2023-4 is almost certainly going to me significantly stronger than just the +0.9 max anomaly in Nino 3.4 of 1976-7.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Also, 2023-4 is almost certainly going to me significantly stronger than just the +0.9 max anomaly in Nino 3.4 of 1976-7.

Right. As much as I love that season, it won't be on my short list. It was actually east based, but so weak it didn't really matter.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everyone run and hide before the ENSO eats us all alive

It’s going to be truly frightening when we see a strong to super east-based Nino in full force this fall . I’m actually looking forward to experiencing one, I was too young for 97-98

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s going to be truly frightening when we see a strong to super east-based Nino in full force this fall . I’m actually looking forward to experiencing one, I was too young for 97-98

I never, ever would have guessed....

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its tough to doubt raindance's idea of an el nino looking pretty much like the last 3 la nina events given the -PDO....but I highly doubt that snowfall will be as anemic as it was this past season....just about impossible in the mid atlantic and coastal SNE.

[BuffaloWeather]

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s going to be truly frightening when we see a strong to super east-based Nino in full force this fall . I’m actually looking forward to experiencing one, I was too young for 97-98

There isn't much to experience. It's usually warm and dry. Not sure why you would be frightened by it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Something has to give soon, whether its this year or not...but dating back to 1956, my worst 5 year stretch is 87-88 through 91-92, when I averaged 38.5"....this stretch from 18-19 through 22-23 I have averaged 45.1".

But I have never had six consecutive seasons of well below average snowfall dating back to 1956....1992-1993 ended that drought with 97.3". On the front side of that stretch was 86-87 with 77.7"....I could envision something like that as the ceiling next year if its basinwide. But even if it isn't....the juggernaut east-based events have a tendency to deliver one heavy hitter.....I had 60.2" in 82-83.

If we get one more terd out here, I would have to imagine 24-25 ends it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There isn't much to experience. It's usually warm and dry. Not sure why you would be frightened by it. 

Its a passive aggressive jab.

But I'm not sure I would say they are usually dry....warm, sure.

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, jconsor said:

Pacific and led to surface warming during the fall and winter (see attached SST cross-sections from Oct and Dec '22 and Feb '23), which in turn likely favored a more +AAM state in the atmosphere.

It also looks like the anomalous warm pool south of Hawaii may have played a role. Notice the classic La Niña VP anomalies north of Australia. But the forcing south of Hawaii has more of a Nino-like look. So the trough and STJ near California were enhanced producing a local Nino-like effect. But SE Ridge in the Eastern US was pure La Niña. 

 

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

apparently a super east-based Nino is the most likely scenario? we haven't even passed the spring barrier lmao

I'm still leaning moderate to low-end strong until proven otherwise. there's also still enough model variability on placement that anything from east-based to a central leaning basin-wide event is possible. no real way to tell until we get into July-August

if I had to bet money on it, I'd say like a +1.3-1.7 basin-wide event

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we can toss 1976-1977 based on the PDO....was pretty positive that year.

The only certainty with our winters since 09-10 has been no specific analogs from before this era have been useful for a seasonal forecast due to changes in the global climate. 

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

apparently a super east-based Nino is the most likely scenario? we haven't even passed the spring barrier lmao

I'm still leaning moderate to low-end strong until proven otherwise. there's also still enough model variability on placement that anything from east-based to a central leaning basin-wide event is possible. no real way to tell until we get into July-August

if I had to bet money on it, I'd say like a +1.3-1.7 basin-wide event

The early evolution suggests east based or east based transitioning to basin wide. So that would probably favor another warmer than average winter. Could be looking at a record 9 warmer winers in a row since 15-16.  Don’t think we ever had a cold modoki  El Niño with well above normal snowfall begin this east based before. But moderate to stronger basin wide or east based El Niño’s have had variable snowfall. Generally  below normal to normal with a few snowier seasons in the mix. A higher end El Niño could have a big impact on global climate after the 15-16 super El Niño represented a big step up in global temperatures.

[WestMichigan]

17 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Where do you get these maps from? Buffalo had a top 5 snowfall year and according to your map we didn't. I had 185" here with annual around 120" and it shows me 50% of normal last winter.

Just like GRR having the 3rd snowiest winter ever and being shown below normal to near normal.  The resolution of the map isn't very good for local areas.

[snowman19]