George001 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see anything near a +6 ONI, but waters that warm do often result in fairly powerful El Niños such as 2009-2010, 2002-2003, 1957-1958, 1972-1973, 1982-1983 etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 28 minutes ago, George001 said: There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see anything near a +6 ONI, but waters that warm do often result in fairly powerful El Niños such as 2009-2010, 2002-2003, 1957-1958, 1972-1973, 1982-1983 etc. I think folks in the east would be happy with the first 3 Now what must've been a real pain-in-the-butt in the 70s was that back-to-back ninas turned into thr 72-73 super niño which then spurred two more ninas, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 8 hours ago, George001 said: There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see anything near a +6 ONI, but waters that warm do often result in fairly powerful El Niños such as 2009-2010, 2002-2003, 1957-1958, 1972-1973, 1982-1983 etc. I'll take my chances with a La/EL Nothing...people hoping for an El Nino next winter are playing with "fire"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 10, 2023 Author Share Posted February 10, 2023 4 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I'll take my chances with a La/EL Nothing...people hoping for an El Nino next winter are playing with "fire"... How come? Is it because of the risk that the El Niño grows too powerful? That’s a valid concern, but I’d rather take my chances with that than roll with enso neutral. We haven’t had a huge winter in a while, and the best enso state for huge winters in SNE is a weak nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 10, 2023 Author Share Posted February 10, 2023 Hell an argument could be made that we are better off punting next winter with a stronger nino since it would reshuffle the pattern. The warm pool out west has been linked to the stubborn western trough pattern we are in right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 The event is actually weakening a little right now in the subsurface. Nino 1+2 is really warming fast, and historically that leads Strong El Nino's, but the atmospheric state is very La Nina, with recent -PDO's setting records since the 1950s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 14 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I'll take my chances with a La/EL Nothing...people hoping for an El Nino next winter are playing with "fire"... You would say that, regardless. Reality is that el nino is the best option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 23 hours ago, George001 said: There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see anything near a +6 ONI, but waters that warm do often result in fairly powerful El Niños such as 2009-2010, 2002-2003, 1957-1958, 1972-1973, 1982-1983 etc. It won't be as strong as 1982. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It won't be as strong as 1982. I'm hoping for something like 02-03, what are your thoughts on that, Ray? It's interesting that 1982 was mentioned since today is the 40th anniversary of the February 1983 blizzard when 2 feet of snow fell here, it was the benchmark storm of the 80s and the benchmark snowstorm of my youth. A great Cat 4 HECS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It won't be as strong as 1982. won't be 1972-73 strong either. I like 2002-03 right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/10/2023 at 2:14 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The event is actually weakening a little right now in the subsurface. Nino 1+2 is really warming fast, and historically that leads Strong El Nino's, but the atmospheric state is very La Nina, with recent -PDO's setting records since the 1950s. we might actually need a near strong el nino to offset the la nina atmospheric state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/10/2023 at 1:00 PM, George001 said: How come? Is it because of the risk that the El Niño grows too powerful? That’s a valid concern, but I’d rather take my chances with that than roll with enso neutral. We haven’t had a huge winter in a while, and the best enso state for huge winters in SNE is a weak nino. neutrals are the worst possible outcome. neutrals after la ninas include some of the worst winters ever.... 89-90, 01-02 and 11-12 being three examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: won't be 1972-73 strong either. I like 2002-03 right now Yea, and 86-87 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: neutrals are the worst possible outcome. neutrals after la ninas include some of the worst winters ever.... 89-90, 01-02 and 11-12 being three examples. 11-12 was la nina, not neutral. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 11-12 was la nina, not neutral. oh okay another bad one (but not as bad as 89-90 and 01-02) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Yeah, but in the subsurface the event is weakening Similar to last year, then waned. The difference is Nino1+2 is warming fast. Strong trades at the surface right now.. if strong -PNA holds until the end of the month like models currently suggest, the subsurface will probably cool even more. It's looking more like Weak-Moderate right now imo. Again, the big challange is we have to do something different from last year. Last year we had this warm push at the same time of year and by late Spring we were cool again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Check this out.. before the 15-16 Super Nino, the SSTs were opposite of this year, cold Nino1+2. My point is that Nino 1+2 didn't mean much, in how that year progressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 28 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Check this out.. before the 15-16 Super Nino, the SSTs were opposite of this year, cold Nino1+2. My point is that Nino 1+2 didn't mean much, in how that year progressed The current state of Nino 1.2 seldom means much with respect to the longer term outlook because it's so unstable. But if anything, I like that its opposite of 2025 because that was the most powerful cannonical el nino in record. I want a modoki. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The current state of Nino 1.2 seldom means much with respect to the longer term outlook because it's so unstable. But if anything, I like that its opposite of 2025 because that was the most powerful cannonical el nino in record. I want a modoki. HIgher odds of -QBO next Winter QBO analogs-El Nino lately has been 14-15, 09-10. Reverse 22-23. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index fwiw. Stratosphere warming is the signal, and around New Years this year we had the lowest 10mb on record. It's been holding true.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Anti-2005 (one of my three winter analogs) is still holding up: Look at the Nino zones, Indian Ocean, SE Atlantic, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Look at how weak this has gotten. I still contest that there is a D-0 correlation, so with forecasted -PNA through March 9, we could see much more weakening still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Still a strong D-0 correlation between PNA and subsurface ENSO This is really different from rapid developing El Nino. Remember in 2021 and 2022 we had the same warmth below Nino 4. The big determinant is where we are on March 9th/10, imo. We have -PNA until then so let's see if the subsurface cools more... We are back to below average mean 165W->e. Similar actually to last year at this time, although I don't know that we go so deep in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Still a strong D-0 correlation between PNA and subsurface ENSO This is really different from rapid developing El Nino. Remember in 2021 and 2022 we had the same warmth below Nino 4. The big determinant is where we are on March 9th/10, imo. We have -PNA until then so let's see if the subsurface cools more... We are back to below average mean 165W->e. Similar actually to last year at this time, although I don't know that we go so deep in March. I beg to differ last year at this time La Niña was stronger than what it is right now and they were no models really predicting El Niño at allI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Does anyone have the enso prediction plots from this time a year ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Bye-bye La Niña Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 13 hours ago, Terpeast said: Does anyone have the enso prediction plots from this time a year ago? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 13 hours ago, Terpeast said: Does anyone have the enso prediction plots from this time a year ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 minute ago, thunderbolt said: Compared to this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 CFS predicting a 2C El Nino by august with forcing concentrated over central pacific and sinking concentrated over Africa and the Indian ocean. this means the entire pacific ocean will be very active . On the other hand the Atlantic maybe in for near record low ACE if this 10:07 AM · Feb 21, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 10 hours ago, thunderbolt said: Oof, that didn’t pan out so well 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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