Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Anyone happen to see the 18z Euro? Asking for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 That disco sounds pretty optimistic wrt the dynamics involved. Also wonder if we see any evaporative cooling during the onset. Getting a couple of degrees out of that could help. I’m also still lost how WAA noses in. I like seeing that NE wind coming down the valley. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 The 18z HRRR was very kind to the plateau, 00z not much at all lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 The 0z HRRR has one incredible deformation band. Up to 3” of precip falls. Unfortunately it is modeled to be in the 40’s on the HRRR. About as painful to watch as it gets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 25 minutes ago, Knoxtron said: The 18z HRRR was very kind to the plateau, 00z not much at all lol Woah... I missed this at 18z. I honestly can't find a meaningful difference between euro and others... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 I’ve honestly not paid attention to soundings much before but I’ve noticed that on several models the modeled output is rain but the “best guess” precip type on the sounding is snow. Has anyone else noticed this in past events and if the “best guess” on soundings have been accurate? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, 1234snow said: I’ve honestly not paid attention to soundings much before but I’ve noticed that on several models the modeled output is rain but the “best guess” precip type on the sounding is snow. Has anyone else noticed this in past events and if the “best guess” on soundings have been accurate? Not sure. I've been tricked many times by the "but the soundings support snow" talk and almost always ended up watching rain fall. But this weekend is intriguing. I'm 33-34 and rain on hrrr with a cold column. It's so interesting to see the euro changing over to snow. Like I said. I'm not betting against modeled output but if there is any weekend to question soundings this is the one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Maybe I am reading the tea leaves too much here, but I really don't understand how these models are showing most of East TN below freezing Sunday night and Monday morning if there is no snow. There is not a real cold air mass around and on a lot of model output it looks like it would be modeling the impact of snow on the ground, even when there is none according to the model. I guess this kind of goes along with what 1234snow just posted about the sounding versus the simulation the models are spitting. A lot is not adding up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 The fv3 came in like euro. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 RAP, FV3 and EURO (hrrr too but just not quite there) have the deform band further east which allows rates to change NE TN to snow. They all have a good 6hr beat down on the tail end. This feature is still 40hrs out. Plenty of wiggle room. We may not be done yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Welp, here we go: Strengthening, cut off upper low, ample Gulf moisture with storms firing in the gulf aligned meridionaly (so no cut off of moisture), cooling cloud tops over MS and AL headed our way, and a for @PowellVolz, a NE wind as evidenced by the low clouds streaming into middle TN from eastern KY. Good luck to everyone! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 MRX and WPC are expecting pretty much zilch below 3500' and even only a mix on the plateau above 2000'. MRX does favor SW VA enough for a WWA. WPC was much less bullish in their overnight disco. For posterity: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 MRX and WPC are expecting pretty much zilch below 3500' and even only a mix on the plateau above 2000'. MRX does favor SW VA enough for a WWA. WPC was much less bullish in their overnight disco. For posterity: They are typically much more right than wrong. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 If this turns out to be predominantly rain, the RGEM will have been the most consistent. The euro will turn out to be the biggest failure. JMO 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 If this turns out to be predominantly rain, the RGEM will have been the most consistent. The euro will turn out to be the biggest failure. JMORGEM scored during the ice event but the Euro who had been the outler, adjusted a couple of days before. It will be interesting to see who scores. Very rare to see the Euro this locked in for several days to end up whiffing. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 18 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: RGEM scored during the ice event but the Euro who had been the outler, adjusted a couple of days before. It will be interesting to see who scores. Very rare to see the Euro this locked in for several days to end up whiffing. . Yeah. Too bad Euro is not what it once was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Just now, Daniel Boone said: Yeah. Too bad Euro is not what it once was. Yeah, looks like it has caved to other guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Probably doesn't mean much, but the deformation band on the 12z GFS shifting recently south and east. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 12 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Yeah, looks like it has caved to other guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 For east TN - Just noting we are in early ish February, with a near perfect track of a surface low, and a great 850 low pass incoming (including a deform band setting up somewhere in east TN) and we are leaning rain, even inside the deform. This satellite picture, knowing the date, should make your mouth water if you like snow. Just goes to show how poorly we do snow in the south. I'm still hopeful some in our region find flakes, but my hopes for a widespread snow event tapered about 36 hours ago. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 I do think our folks in southwest Virginia have a legit shot at a decent event, even lower elevations. Both the 6z Euro and 12z GEFS have moved the deformation band about 75mi to the east. That would be jackpot there if true. The short range models are fairly void of snow, but this event sits right on the margins.....Bristol, TN, for example sits at 34 as the deformation band passes over on the GFS. My money would be for snowflakes to be mixed in there. I would absolutely hate having to make a call for this as a professional forecaster for TRI. It is very likely rain, but there is some bust potential with this. These are the types of events where surprises can happen under the deformation band. Unlikely that happens, but that is not a zero chance proposition. The biggest issue is the colder air doesn't feed in until after daybreak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 11 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: For east TN - Just noting we are in early ish February, with a near perfect track of a surface low, and a great 850 low pass incoming (including a deform band setting up somewhere in east TN) and we are leaning rain, even inside the deform. This satellite picture, knowing the date, should make your mouth water if you like snow. Just goes to show how poorly we do snow in the south. I'm still hopeful some in our region find flakes, but my hopes for a widespread snow event tapered about 36 hours ago. Yeah, it's sad. Perfect track but, no typical cold around. Only in this poor excuse of a Winter. P. S.., I've saw a similar system dump heavy snow in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Feels like we are done here in the valley. Good luck NE guys, I think you all are in good shape. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Interesting that Huntsville NWS thinks they change to snow for a while tonight and they even said there’s a 10% chance of the temperatures getting below 32° in their area. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 There is some strong bright banding over MS right now near Jackson, MS. radar site is KDGX Here is a still image since the gif resolution is pretty low. I can usually look a correlation coefficient and see a rain snow level or line, but there is A LOT going on in that radar image and its over my head. Here is the hydrometeor classification for those interested. If it is right, snow is really trying to reach the surface: The light blue is "dry snow" and the darker blue is "wet snow". The pinkish color is "graupnel" and the red is "hail," the yellow is "big drops" and the green is "little drops." sorry for the random quotes but I was trying to denote that those terms on radarscopes, not mine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 16 hours ago, fountainguy97 said: RAP, FV3 and EURO (hrrr too but just not quite there) have the deform band further east which allows rates to change NE TN to snow. They all have a good 6hr beat down on the tail end. This feature is still 40hrs out. Plenty of wiggle room. We may not be done yet. I've been watching trends on the pivoting deform band as a potential surprise and the 18z nam just delivered. the euro camp from last night had the deform band pivoting further east allowing areas of NE TN to change to biscuits for the last 6 hrs of the event. Here is the nam trend. The hrrr has also ticked this way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 FWIW we are running about 5 degrees below HRRR at this time up on the Plateau. Winds from the north up here as well, hit 44.4 an hour ago and currently 43°. I just want to believe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 NWS just posted a Winter Storm Warning for the mountains. 3-8 inches above 3,000 ft and up to 3 inches below 3,000 ft. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Lower elevations below 3,000 feet may see up to 3 inches. Locations above 3,000 feet are expected see 3 to 8 inches. * WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EST Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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