Reb Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Can @John1122 score us a Super Bowl weekend big dog? 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Analogs suggest 90 percent chance of a significant threat during Super Bowl weekends. 2 inches in Hixon is the most I've seen while I was there for the SB. However, two tiers of counties to the north, and points north 3-6 is much more common during SB trips. This would be the third ime in the last 9 years the biggest snow of the season at my house happened when I went down for the SB. Last year I had to last minute cancel but it was too late for the snow to know, so it happened anyway. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 NAM shows some mixing and thermal issues. Pretty weird looking clown map. Suggests most go from snow to rain. Just weird to see TRI blanked when the Euro has it getting crushed. Any thoughts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I think NAM has a dry slot over NE TN. It's pretty far west. 18z has come out pretty bland. Icon and NAM and RGEM all bleh. What's with 18z runs? Yesterday was rough too. what do you guys make of the RGEM being all rain? Its track is pretty far west too. But even then it's all rain besides 3500+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: I think NAM has a dry slot over NE TN. It's pretty far west. 18z has come out pretty bland. Icon and NAM and RGEM all bleh. What's with 18z runs? Yesterday was rough too. what do you guys make of the RGEM being all rain? Its track isn't horrible. Well there is a bit of a lower precipitation total near JC on that run. That's a possibility. I know these set ups are rate driven. I think Powell mentioned it this morning that the models sometimes struggle picking up the dynamic cooling aspect of these storms. That could be a possibility as well. Or maybe we just get cold rain. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I'll give Morristown this......................... 9 times out of 10 they will be right about snowfall in our region when playing it down. We (snow lovers) just have to hope this is a 1 of 10 situation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I'll give Morristown this......................... 9 times out of 10 they will be right about snowfall in our region when playing it down. We (snow lovers) just have to hope this is a 1 of 10 situation.MRX will almost always ride with the NWS blend and IMO it is typically 50-75% underdone compared to all of the other mods. Which is confusing considering it’s a blend. Now it’s going to be right or close most of the time because of climatology but when we do get a event that’s more than 5”, it usually busts big time. . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 18z NAM soundings show that it is darn near run thing for my area: Says thats rain and this is snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Here's another over Hamblin county at 8 AM Sunday: says rain, but that is some good forcing into the DGZ. Rates will overcome? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Here's one more from the RGEM this time from around Fall Branch, TN at 5am Sunday morning. That is a stout warm nose. Interestingly, it seems like the NAM is usually the one to sniff out warm noses and although it has one, it is not as notable as the RGEM's. IDK. Is forecasting some downsloping? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Anyone have 18z euro maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 hours ago, PowellVolz said: MRX will almost always ride with the NWS blend and IMO it is typically 50-75% underdone compared to all of the other mods. Which is confusing considering it’s a blend. Now it’s going to be right or close most of the time because of climatology but when we do get a event that’s more than 5”, it usually busts big time. . Yeah, that is what they do. NBM all the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 17 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Anyone have 18z euro maps? Top is 12z and bottom is 18z for comparison. The latest run gets a little more of the plateau involved. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 hours ago, tnweathernut said: I'll give Morristown this......................... 9 times out of 10 they will be right about snowfall in our region when playing it down. We (snow lovers) just have to hope this is a 1 of 10 situation. They are generally right for the cental/ Southern Valley and have gotten some better for northern sections. Spotter reports are few from SWVA so, that is one reason for being less accurate for northern zones but, they have increased somewhat and seems to be helping. KMRX uses solely NBM so, take that for what it is i. e, if a superior model such as the EURO once was showed 12" snowfall for the entire Valley but, the rest showed 1-4" the NBM Output would be abysmal regardless of the best models output. No specific Model is weighted more. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 I feel like Knoxville has greater than a 1% chance to receive 1" of snow......it might be closer to 10%, but 1% seems awfully low. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 NAM will do... 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Wurbus said: NAM will do... I know there is probably a lot of melt and this is with marginal temps, but that's a straight up paste bomb. Goodness the mountains and foothills look to clean up on this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: I know there is probably a lot of melt and this is with marginal temps, but that's a straight up paste bomb. Goodness the mountains and foothills look to clean up on this run. Yeah....the "snow depth" map shows Knoxville at 2 inches, but this map is more fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Wurbus said: Yeah....the "snow depth" map shows Knoxville at 2 inches, but this map is more fun to look at. lol yeah, I was just looking at the map on weatherbell and saw the same. A much more reasonable expectation. If I can just get an inch, I will claim victory. Anyway, to get an idea of how wet this system here is the precipitation map. Looks like Blount, Sevier, and Cocke have a lot of potential. 2 inches of water to work with, though I assume the ratios are low? Less than 10? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 RGEM same as 18z.....cold rain for most everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 The GFS ain't as bullish either. Temps are way warmer at the surface. For example, has TYS at 40 on Sunday at 7:00 AM. The NAM had a temp of 33. Pretty big difference. GFS still has snow, though more elevation driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 At 06z I can no longer ignore the warm solutions. CMC, ICON, RGEM, GFS are showing very little snow west of the apps. Looking bleak today. The NAM is also looking worse too although it jumped NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 For us plateau folks I don't know that its looking much worse. RGEM soundings don't have as pronounced a warm nose even though the boundary layer temps are less than ideal, lol. GFS soundings do have the warm nose to an extent though. Here is another example like those from last night: Since I started looking at these soundings for this system, it seemed that this warm nose was the problem more so than the boundary layer. It was enough to melt the snow at 5000 - 7000' and since the boundary layer was too warm, it just stayed a cold rain. My question is, why in the world are we getting an elevated warm layer on the NW side of an upper low. NAM shows warm advection at 700mb coming off the Atlantic: Even with that WAA we still get a pretty good sounding over a place like SE Cumberland county at hour 45: Good forcing and moisture into the DGZ and nearly isothermal later from 700 mb down. Some of the soundings above even say snow in their "best guess precip type" box, even though the precip depiction is rain. IDK though it still looks very marginal, but I guess that's nothing new. It seems like its been so long since we've even had a shot with a system like this I don't remember any personal experience to help out lol. Probably time for ye old weather rock. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 The GFS ain't as bullish either. Temps are way warmer at the surface. For example, has TYS at 40 on Sunday at 7:00 AM. The NAM had a temp of 33. Pretty big difference. GFS still has snow, though more elevation driven. And the NAM has a warm bias. I’m thinking maybe since the NAM over amps a lot, the temps are colder because the precipitation is heavier. More dynamic cooling. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 For us plateau folks I don't know that its looking much worse. RGEM soundings don't have as pronounced a warm nose even though the boundary layer temps are less than ideal, lol. GFS soundings do have the warm nose to an extent though. Here is another example like those from last night: Since I started looking at these soundings for this system, it seemed that this warm nose was the problem more so than the boundary layer. It was enough to melt the snow at 5000 - 7000' and since the boundary layer was too warm, it just stayed a cold rain. My question is, why in the world are we getting an elevated warm layer on the NW side of an upper low. NAM shows warm advection at 700mb coming off the Atlantic: Even with that WAA we still get a pretty good sounding over a place like SE Cumberland county at hour 45: Good forcing and moisture into the DGZ and nearly isothermal later from 700 mb down. Some of the soundings above even say snow in their "best guess precip type" box, even though the precip depiction is rain. IDK though it still looks very marginal, but I guess that's nothing new. It seems like its been so long since we've even had a shot with a system like this I don't remember any personal experience to help out lol. Probably time for ye old weather rock. Im not saying this because I want the best outcome of snow but I always go by the sounding when it’s borderline. I’ve seen multiple times the mods have rain and it end up snow because of dynamics. If this was a mid or surface low I’d go rain but a ULL with heavy enough rates will do it’s job when temps are marginal. Where we are with this is not ideal but I don’t believe we are locked in. Just a couple of degrees will change everything . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Trying to figure out if I take the older kiddos to Sewanee or Monterey on Sunday. Those are my favorite snow-chasing destinations on the plateau. Would love to be able to keep a drive within a few hours. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Trying to figure out if I take the older kiddos to Sewanee or Monterey on Sunday. Those are my favorite snow-chasing destinations on the plateau. Would love to be able to keep a drive within a few hours. I say take them to Chattanooga. What could possibly go wrong in our area? Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 111 between Dunlap and Soddy Daisy gets to about 2200 feet in elevation before the western drop into the Sequatchie Valley. The exit for Lewis Chapel Road has lots of parking and a couple good slopes, which are sorely missing up on Flat Top 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, Knoxtron said: 111 between Dunlap and Soddy Daisy gets to about 2200 feet in elevation before the western drop into the Sequatchie Valley. The exit for Lewis Chapel Road has lots of parking and a couple good slopes, which are sorely missing up on Flat Top This road is in my area of responsibility for snow removal for TDOT. It's the first place I check during events for road conditions. We actually put forward facing dash cams in the plow assigned to that route so we can monitor remotely since there are no traffic cameras up there. I'm concerned about this area, and eastern Polk and McMinn counties. Could be a tree snapper in those areas. Also Lookout Mountain, which is around 2200'. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8283 El Nino Baby Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 30 minutes ago, Knoxtron said: 111 between Dunlap and Soddy Daisy gets to about 2200 feet in elevation before the western drop into the Sequatchie Valley. The exit for Lewis Chapel Road has lots of parking and a couple good slopes, which are sorely missing up on Flat Top Thanks for the info. I live off of 111 between Spencer and Dunlap. Will have to check out those slopes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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