2/12 Potential Super Sloppy Bowl fumble with low scores possible!

[CAPE]

53 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Good thing I did not open this thread!!!  I listened!!!

Don't blame the creation of this thread for the apparent death of this wretched 'threat'. Was on life support the instant it showed up on guidance.

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Don't blame the creation of this thread for the apparent death of this wretched 'threat'. Was on life support the instant it showed up on guidance.

Nope. I blame the 5 day early thread

[WinterWxLuvr]

I may not know what I’m talking about here, but I didn’t equate a closed low with a cutoff low

[87storms]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I may not know what I’m talking about here, but I didn’t equate a closed low with a cutoff low

LWX is using the cutoff low verbiage, though it might not be the prototypical, meandering cutoff low that we see over the sw states...

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term begins with a strong upper level trough digging across
the Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Recent model runs have the
trough digging deeper and moving slower bringing impacts later in
the weekend. Saturday will be mild with high temperatures in the 40s
for most (30s at higher elevations) and clouds clearing in the
afternoon, and breezy conditions throughout the day.  As the trough
approaches from the west, a cutoff low develops over the southeast
and begins moving up the east coast. There is still a good bit of
model uncertainty regarding the timing and placement of the cutoff
low.

Model guidance is trending slower with precipitation reaching the
forecast area early Sunday and persisting throughout the day. As far
a wintry precipitation, model guidance is showing temperatures
staying above freezing east of the Blue Ridge. Those along and west
of the Blue Ridge have the highest chances of seeing snow, but cold
air aloft could infiltrate heavy precipitation bringing some snow to
the rest of the area. With this event being five days away, it`s too
early to tell in the way of wintry precipitation. We will continue
to monitor this system as it gets closer.

Current guidance shows the cutoff low exiting the area into the
Atlantic by Monday afternoon, but it`s too early to say with the
slower trend in guidance. Upper level ridging will build over the
area in the wake of the area of low pressure brining warmer and more
mild conditions.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I may not know what I’m talking about here, but I didn’t equate a closed low with a cutoff low

They aren't necessarily the same. A cutoff low is completely separated from the general westerly flow. A cutoff will tend to stall/meander around for a period of time in a particular region. This particular situation is not that.

[Weather Will]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Don't blame the creation of this thread for the apparent death of this wretched 'threat'. Was on life support the instant it showed up on guidance.

I am just kidding, I don’t believe in jinxes, never wore my pjs inside out growing up to get a snow day….

Truth be told, just thinking there was something to track the last few days was fun; it will snow again eventually and everyone will appreciate it a little more as it becomes a less frequent occurrence in the DMV.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, 87storms said:

LWX is using the cutoff low verbiage, though it might not be the prototypical, meandering cutoff low that we see over the sw states...

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term begins with a strong upper level trough digging across
the Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Recent model runs have the
trough digging deeper and moving slower bringing impacts later in
the weekend. Saturday will be mild with high temperatures in the 40s
for most (30s at higher elevations) and clouds clearing in the
afternoon, and breezy conditions throughout the day.  As the trough
approaches from the west, a cutoff low develops over the southeast
and begins moving up the east coast. There is still a good bit of
model uncertainty regarding the timing and placement of the cutoff
low.

Model guidance is trending slower with precipitation reaching the
forecast area early Sunday and persisting throughout the day. As far
a wintry precipitation, model guidance is showing temperatures
staying above freezing east of the Blue Ridge. Those along and west
of the Blue Ridge have the highest chances of seeing snow, but cold
air aloft could infiltrate heavy precipitation bringing some snow to
the rest of the area. With this event being five days away, it`s too
early to tell in the way of wintry precipitation. We will continue
to monitor this system as it gets closer.

Current guidance shows the cutoff low exiting the area into the
Atlantic by Monday afternoon, but it`s too early to say with the
slower trend in guidance. Upper level ridging will build over the
area in the wake of the area of low pressure brining warmer and more
mild conditions.

The terms are sometimes used interchangeably, but that doesn't make it technically correct.

[psuhoffman]

I’m technically tired of this, someone change the channel please. 

[CAPE]

It was 60 today and I didn't hate it at all.

Really tired of moderately chilly and dry, followed by mild rain though.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It was 60 today and I didn't hate it at all.

Really tired of moderately chilly and dry, followed by mild rain though.

I’ve been wearing my fall jacket all winter. That part has been ok I guess. 

[WesternFringe]

I miss eduggs telling everybody here that their analysis sucked and that this was a real threat for us but our simpleton surface oriented brains couldn’t process it.  Those were good times. Lol

Obviously I hope the south trend reverses in future guidance and we all score a perfect ULL pass, but I agree the chances are slim now.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

I miss eduggs telling everybody here that their analysis sucked and that this was a real threat for us but our simpleton surface oriented brains couldn’t process it.  Those were good times. Lol

Obviously I hope the south trend reverses in future guidance and we all score a perfect ULL pass, but I agree the chances are slim now.

Always fun when randos from other subs pop in here to tell us all how things are. 

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Always fun when randos from other subs pop in here to tell us all how things are. 

 The Threat disappeared just like him lol

Go fiquire 

[paulythegun]

One annoying trend is isobars pushing further and further south from Quebec, squashing the vort after it slowly meanders toward a decent position to our SE. You see this monster amping up on the euro and it kinda falls half apart when it reaches out region. Then the progressive flow behind it shunts it out to sea. 

I've seen storms close off, go berserk, mature, and then fall apart on guidance all the time. Long range GFS is a fan of doing that. Usually occlusion is the end result. Particularly late winter. But I don't remember the last time I've seen it happen in real life to our region. Usually it's a new England thing. Maybe I just need more experience tracking closed off systems taking a southern track and then pushing into a warm air mass. This really does feel like a "first week of April" kind of thing. 

Am I wrong that this whole progression is kinda unique for February? Late Jan 2011 keeps popping on the analogs, and someone made the point the other day that usually we just ignore perfect track rain storms but I don't remember this situation being a common one..

[midatlanticweather]

@Jiwill te you that I am the jinx maker. Every time I post things go worse. I wanted a dry Sunday so it all worked out. Your cursing is my blessing.

 

[midatlanticweather]

[DarkSharkWX]

2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Can you post mean?

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO Control which I think tracks the deterministic at this range is an improvement,

 

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO Control which I think tracks the deterministic at this range is an improvement,

 

Do u have the mean

[Weather Will]

Crickets????  Am I wrong?  Control puts the NW burbs back in the ballgame, doesn’t it????

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Do u have the mean

WB 18Z EPS

[Weather Will]

WB EURO Control 1pm Sunday; for a paste bomb this is what we need,  a blob of just enough cold air aloft in a sea of warm….

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB EURO Control 1pm Sunday; for a paste bomb this is what we need,  a blob of just enough cold air aloft in a sea of warm….

When does the majority of the precip fall on the control?

[WinterWxLuvr]

The euro had me getting 3” last week 12 hours before the start

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z Control Precip

[Weather Will]

Not saying it’s right, but best run of the day…

[mappy]

50 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

One annoying trend is isobars pushing further and further south from Quebec, squashing the vort after it slowly meanders toward a decent position to our SE. You see this monster amping up on the euro and it kinda falls half apart when it reaches out region. Then the progressive flow behind it shunts it out to sea. 

I've seen storms close off, go berserk, mature, and then fall apart on guidance all the time. Long range GFS is a fan of doing that. Usually occlusion is the end result. Particularly late winter. But I don't remember the last time I've seen it happen in real life to our region. Usually it's a new England thing. Maybe I just need more experience tracking closed off systems taking a southern track and then pushing into a warm air mass. This really does feel like a "first week of April" kind of thing. 

Am I wrong that this whole progression is kinda unique for February? Late Jan 2011 keeps popping on the analogs, and someone made the point the other day that usually we just ignore perfect track rain storms but I don't remember this situation being a common one..

Please keep posting, nice to see you (and the memes) 

[Amped]

36F at the surface and -0.2C at 850mb.  We just need the storm to make a little more of it's own cold air.

[Chris78]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z Control Precip

Quite the deform band overnight Sunday into Monday.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Quite the deform band overnight Sunday into Monday.

Hard to say where it will set up until closer to game time, but would be nice to see it