clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 The NAM caved horribly. Not that the NAM really matters. But its over. Just spent the past half hour looking at 5 day lead times on the models and added up the amount of snow Winchester would have if ANY of them were right. In the past 6 weeks at day 5 on the models Winchester has 49 inches of snow accumulation......The models are a clownshow. Just like this winter. 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 41 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The NAM caved horribly. Not that the NAM really matters. But its over. Just spent the past half hour looking at 5 day lead times on the models and added up the amount of snow Winchester would have if ANY of them were right. In the past 6 weeks at day 5 on the models Winchester has 49 inches of snow accumulation......The models are a clownshow. Just like this winter. I understand the frustration but the perception the models over predict snow to that extreme is a perception bias fallacy. Back in 2018 and 2019 I ran the numbers to see and while they do tend to over predict snow somewhat its not as much as we think. First of all there is the issue of a mean being bound by 0. So lets say you take the 4 GFS runs from a day. If one has a 10" snowstorm but the other 3 show nothing. An average would say the GFS predicted 2.5" of snow but the reality is the GFS was saying there was a 75% chance no snow would fall. Probabilities have to be factored into the equation since a mean is skewed by outliers, especially because 0 bounds the lower end of the calculation. The other factor is the perception the models show snow even when only 1 or 2 runs in a day out of like a minimum of 10 major global runs...more if you include more obscure guidance. If one GFS and one Euro run over a course of 24 hours shows snow...that is not the guidance predicting snow. The preponderance of evidence for that day was no snow would fall. When I tracked both the mean and the probabilities those winters once a week I found the mean was slightly inflated but not as much as we thought...but the probabilities were pretty good. Usually when the probabilities of snow were above 50% it actually did snow. The problem was those probabilities were rarely above 50% even when we percieved they were. Take this year for example...the probabilities for 3" of snow were never above about 30% at any time. And the probabilities of 1" never got above about 50% at any time lol. And the one time the 1" probabilities got to 50% is when we actually did get that little snow event where places got almost 1" lol. If you were just joking sorry...but some really do think the guidance is skewed towards snow but I found numerically its not as bad as we think. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 For western highlands I definitely wouldn't give up yet. The last 6 runs of the GFS has steadily moved the system further NW. Wouldn't be too shocking to see some snow west of Hagerstown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: The NAM caved horribly. Not that the NAM really matters. But its over. Just spent the past half hour looking at 5 day lead times on the models and added up the amount of snow Winchester would have if ANY of them were right. In the past 6 weeks at day 5 on the models Winchester has 49 inches of snow accumulation......The models are a clownshow. Just like this winter. You waited for the NAM to cave to say its over? Its been over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 31 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: You waited for the NAM to cave to say its over? Its been over. It was over before this thread was even started, lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: It was over before this thread was even started, lol Like winter, we really have to improve our storm threat thread making time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Like winter, we really have to improve our storm threat thread making time. Lol Honestly, I think it oughta depend on just how the winter is going. If it's one where things have just been hostile to snow and there are no other threats or promising LR stuff to track, a thread shouldn't be necessary...But that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 FWIW, 06z GFS moved north with its snow totals into our region... big changes for i81 corridor 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 WB 6Z GFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Stark differences in track between EURO and GFS at this range…if we had cold air in place there would be lots of hand wringing until 12Z…WB 6Z GFS compared to Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Stark differences in track between EURO and GFS…if we had cold air in place there would be lots of hand wringing until 12Z…WB 6Z Euro compared to GFS Pretty big difference at 48 hours out. I would think they get closer to each other at the noon run but who knows. Imagine if this was actually a snow storm and the differences between the 2 major globals lol. Edit : definitely effects the Shenandoah Valley though along the i-81 corridor further north into VA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Weatherbug caved overnight and it's back to rain for Sunday. Definitely over now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 39 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Stark differences in track between EURO and GFS at this range…if we had cold air in place there would be lots of hand wringing until 12Z…WB 6Z GFS compared to Euro. Oh, there is still hand wringing here out west. Does my area get 2.5" qpf of snow, sleet, and rain like the 6Z GFS shows? Or do we get 0.1" of qpf per the 6Z Euro? Stark differences for these leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Let's say the old weenie rule of coming north in the last 48 hours came true. Are we basically sunk... or can we still back our way into like an inch if snow up here if the ULL were to trend closer to us in its path? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Oh, there is still hand wringing here out west. Does my area get 2.5" qpf of snow, sleet, and rain like the 6Z GFS shows? Or do we get 0.1" of qpf per the 6Z Euro? Stark differences for these leads.It’s a little interesting. I’m in Fishersville, but don’t think I can convince my girlfriend to take a sick day Monday (in-person work for her) relying on the GFS’s antics. Would need something else to come aboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Let's say the old weenie rule of coming north in the last 48 hours came true. Are we basically sunk... or can we still back our way into like an inch if snow up here if the ULL were to trend closer to us in its path? Dynamic storm, prime climo... Idgaf, I'm not giving up on it until I see it pouring rain in the deformation band. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 16 minutes ago, yoda said: Let's say the old weenie rule of coming north in the last 48 hours came true. Are we basically sunk... or can we still back our way into like an inch if snow up here if the ULL were to trend closer to us in its path? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, yoda said: Let's say the old weenie rule of coming north in the last 48 hours came true. Are we basically sunk... or can we still back our way into like an inch if snow up here if the ULL were to trend closer to us in its path? Look at the North trend on the GFS over the last 2 days lol. Probably the only areas that would have a chance with a continued north trend would be the highlands in the west. West of - 81 and you may even need to be further west than that. Like Cumberland area. Even if the bowling ball continues to trend north the problem is with the approach. Never say never and bowling ball lows can surprise. Im certainly still interested and I would think the Winchester crew would still be also. @WinterWxLuvr @clskinsfan 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 WB 12 Z NAM is trending to the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 trending to more rain? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 WB 12K NAM 12Z v. 6Z. Thank goodness it is not cold or there would be a meltdown… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 minute ago, mappy said: trending to more rain? Or less. Whatever. We just can't know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, mappy said: trending to more rain? Less precip. Let’s see if GFS caves to EURO at 12Z… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Here's the latest update from the Clownmap Weather Authority. 1,000,000 people affected! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Less precip. Let’s see if GFS caves to EURO at 12Z… Not sure about caving, but I suspect the GFS will stagger towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Not believing the NAM depiction of snow accums east of blue ridge. Artifact of low resolution… soundings above freezing up to 750-700mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not believing the NAM depiction of snow accums east of blue ridge. Artifact of low resolution… soundings above freezing up to 750-700mb What snow? RGEM is worse. We have model agreement that this event sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Is this storm over yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, 87storms said: Is this storm over yet? It was dead at the starting line. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 The GFS has been pretty terrible. A few days ago that little SW low was in the Great Lakes, now its in the Gulf of Mexico. A few days ago this storm was for Upstate NY, now its congrats South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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