2/12 Potential Super Sloppy Bowl fumble with low scores possible!

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

THANK YOU. That's perfect. 

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

Yeah... I dont know why a storm thread was even made on an event that was already going south 5 days in advance.  Gasping 

[clskinsfan]

RGEM slightly warmer than the NAM and comes in with a little freezing rain before the flip to 33 and rain. Miserable. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z NAM,  again the potential for our western suburbs will be in the later Sunday evening period….if it does not stay SE….and IF the upper low is intense and a little further N.

[paulythegun]

31 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

RGEM slightly warmer than the NAM and comes in with a little freezing rain before the flip to 33 and rain. Miserable. 

You will never find a more wretched hive of warm air in February.

[SnowenOutThere]

From the NWS forecast discussion today, I think that it sums things up pretty well.

 

With most guidance lifting the upper low through the carolinas, becoming
more negatively tilted, this favors some precipitation in our
area. The biggest issue for winter lovers, outside of the
mountains, is the fact that this storm has trended so much
slower. The air mass in place at the surface is far from what
one would want to produce snowfall. This storm is going to get
all of its cold air aloft from that strong cutoff upper low. A
heavy band will setup somewhere northwest of the low pressure
center, and this is where the best chance for snowfall would
occur outside of the mountains. But even that may not be enough
for areas along the I-95 corridor, as temperatures look to be
well in the upper 30s to low 40s. The best chance for snowfall
lies along and west of the Blue Ridge, especially at higher
elevations. This matches the ensemble means at this point as
well, which paint a solid stripe of accumulating snowfall in
that area. Snowfall farther east can certainly not be ruled out
though at this time, but probabilities just aren`t looking as
promising. As always, consult weather.gov/lwx/winter for the
latest winter weather forecast updates. This storm system,
having trended slower in recent days, is still around 4 days
out, so many things can change in that amount of time. As said
in previous forecasts, cutoff upper lows are notoriously
difficult to handle, and any small deviation in track/speed
could spell big changes to the forecast.

[Baltimorewx]

GFS gets better precip up here but its toasty lol

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS, got my flurry….Sunday evening.  Pretty pathetic…

[Baltimorewx]

I guess the southwest VA folks like this run though

[Snowchaser]

Storm Max of 30''

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, H2O said:

Didn't know @wxtrix felt that strongly about storm threads 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Next time a big storm shows up at 12 days, somebody start a thread. 

[Solution Man]

3 hours ago, H2O said:

 

[midatlanticweather]

Jumped north quite a bit and snow... but we are sooooo toasty outside the mountains, as people keep saying! Still.. getting close to giving some here a little something! Another jump like that and people to the west may be a bit more involved. 

 

[Buddy1987]

23 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I guess the southwest VA folks like this run though

I will believe this sh*t when I see it down this way falling and on the ground. Anything to do with 850s and having to wet bulb just screams don't get invested. 

[snowmagnet]

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I will believe this sh*t when I see it down this way falling and on the ground. Anything to do with 850s and having to wet bulb just screams don't get invested. 

It’s all part of the game. We win rarely and lose usually, but that’s risk in tracking.  For me the most frustrating ones are when the tracking goes well for days and days leading up to the event, only to end up as too warm, too dry, or too far south.   Some of the most interesting storms are those that thread the needle or rely on deformation. 

[Buddy1987]

12 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

It’s all part of the game. We win rarely and lose usually, but that’s risk in tracking.  For me the most frustrating ones are when the tracking goes well for days and days leading up to the event, only to end up as too warm, too dry, or too far south.   Some of the most interesting storms are those that thread the needle or rely on deformation. 

That I can't deny there. Feel like overall i'm in a spot that stands the best chance but time will tell as we get closer. 

[midatlanticweather]

Small potatoes. But not 0" for everyone!

 

 

 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z NAM,  again the potential for our western suburbs will be in the later Sunday evening period….if it does not stay SE….and IF the upper low is intense and a little further N.

Oh Look the WARM Atlantic AGAIN!!  The Theme of the year!  We are toast Folks!  WARM Ocean either helps or not depending the the trajectory of the trough coming in this year it just has never worked out!

[SnowGolfBro]

5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Small potatoes. But not 0" for everyone!

 

 

 

My goal is to beat Short Pump. Low standards this winter lol

[Rvarookie]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Didn't know @wxtrix felt that strongly about storm threads 

Aww man…you know you don’t want that smoke 

[paulythegun]

Key points from the 12z Euro for DC:

1) Probabilities (my own):

• 50% chance of soul crushingly awful rain.
• 50% chance of the THREAT of horrific cold rain ruining all social plans and then missing us barely to the south. 

2) Zero snow for the mountains or really anywhere outside of SW VA.

3) All hope lost.

4) Might as well jump.

5) Go ahead, jump.

[87storms]

I honestly don't care too much about when a storm thread is created, but obviously the issue is we're creating them at that "fork in the road" portion of the modeling when there's still time for significant adjustments.  On one hand, it makes sense to separate out a storm threat if there's multiple threats, but with this being the only one I think it could have waited another day or so to avoid tracking debris clouds (which hopefully is not the case).

[87storms]

Also, I heard the Euro is running.

[NorthArlington101]

Congrats to Georgia 

[paulythegun]

Individual members on GEFS are kinda awesome (this almost doesn't seem real...), though I assume this is a ton of sleet being turned into fake digital snow: 

[Amped]

Maybe we should all go outside look up at the sky and yell at the storm to make more fookin cold air it'll trend snowier.

I'm out of ideas for saving this winter.

[mdhokie]

@IronTy needs to take his yurt-tent down to the smokies. Foot+ pastebomb up on Clingmans Dome!

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Maybe we should all go outside look up at the sky and yell at the storm to make more fookin cold air it'll trend snowier.

I'm out of ideas for saving this winter.

Just be sure not to pass gas while yelling, lest that negates your efforts. 

[87storms]

Euro jumped at least 50 miles southeast.  Looks like precip stays southeast of DC/Bmore with nothing to the Mason Dixon line.