Prismshine Productions Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I think once again everyone outside 85 gets the royal screw jobSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I'm still more worried about temps than downsloping 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, SouthWake33 said: It’s been this way for a couple of years now. Use the block feature. I know many of us in the south get frustrated when we do not see snow when it is forecast, especially since it has become so rare in recent years (or decades). I look at like this. I am probably the biggest winnie on here but if there is no snow this weekend, so be it. I'll be disappointed but it was fun tracking the last couple of days. It's a welcome diversion from all the serious things we deal with in life. I will just move on to looking for the next threat. If nothing happens this year, I will start reading ENSO predictions in June and start tracking again next fall. I just feel for the younger posters under 40 who did not get to experience some of the great winters of the 70's and 80's around here. But even then, a good year was 2-3 events. The climate has changed. In next 20 years or so when I am gone, you younger posters will probably be experiencing another shift. That's what the weather does. That's what makes it so fun to follow. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 16 minutes ago, BooneWX said: As a fellow foothiller I think we have a good shot but there’s no denying the high risk for downsloping to completely ruin the event. 2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Little more faith giving for our area after the 12z euro run. The line is tight as it is always round here. Yeah I just hope we can squeeze out just enough to meet warning criteria. My rule of thumb is if I get 4 inches that winter was good and I'm good with no more snow for that winter. Here's to hope that us here in the foothills can cash in. We are so close to something more as usual lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: I know many of us in the south get frustrated when we do not see snow when it is forecast, especially since it has become so rare in recent years (or decades). I look at like this. I am probably the biggest winnie on here but if there is no snow this weekend, so be it. I'll be disappointed but it was fun tracking the last couple of days. It's a welcome diversion from all the serious things we deal with in life. I will just move on to looking for the next threat. If nothing happens this year, I will start reading ENSO predictions in June and start tracking again next fall. I just feel for the younger posters under 40 who did not get to experience some of the great winters of the 70's and 80's around here. But even then, a good year was 2-3 events. The climate has changed. In next 20 years or so when I am gone, you younger posters will probably be experiencing another shift. That's what the weather does. That's what makes it so fun to follow. I disagree...wnc had a great run from 09 to 2017. We had plenty of crappy winters before that including in the 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: I disagree...wnc had a great run from 09 to 2017. We had plenty of crappy winters before that including in the 90s True. I was in the upstate. 2011, 2014, 2015, and 2016 had good events. 2019 was a good year here in the western NC Piedmont. The 2000s didn’t produce much in my area outside Presidents’ Day storm. Still no pattern that rivals the 70s or 80s or even 1996. 2011 was probably the closest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Lol how long have you lived here? You know GSP ain't talking crap up until about 24 to 36 hours. And this is still a high bust situation. Good news I have the S word in the forecast now Sunday Snow before 10am, then rain. High near 39. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 TT is down for maintenance until 7pm... anybody got a NAM map they can post?? I know it's 60+ hours out but just curious about position of ULL at 12z on Sunday in reference to the euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, The Alchemist said: TT is down for maintenance until 7pm... anybody got a NAM map they can post?? I know it's 60+ hours out but just curious about position of ULL at 12z on Sunday in reference to the euro... Not sure which one you are looking for but this is through 54... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Not sure which one you are looking for but this is through 54... thats south by like 75-80 from this AM just Lp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 At 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said: Not sure which one you are looking for but this is through 54... Thanks, I was able to look at the globals then the site went down... Heard a lot of talk comparing this to 3/2009... we had 12.5" here in Saluda NC. Really wet and heavy... I'm having my roof replaced and the paper is down but not the shingles... I am slightly concerned with roof weight if we'd see a repeat of 2009 when there are 60 bundles of singles up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: At 60 big difference in 850s hr 60 when compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 At 66. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 At 72 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: At 72 A Lot of snow can fall in that 12 hour window you just posted... I can see me throwing shingle bundles off the roof tomorrow to lighten the load... The guy is coming tomorrow so hopefully they can shingle the back of the house... it's been. few years but I know a good crew with roofing guns can drop drip edge and 10 square of shingles in a day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 The NAM needs to continue to shift east about 100 miles. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 Has anyone seen the KGSP AFD for this afternoon? Still showing the morning AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said: Has anyone seen the KGSP AFD for this afternoon? Still showing the morning AFD. Forecast grids still haven't updated best I can tell. I'm sure it'll be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Final snow map on NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: The NAM needs to continue to shift east about 100 miles. Not for the NE Georgia folks... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 The NAM was an odd run, the moisture just disappears from hr69 to hr72. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 So how accurate is the NAM at this range? Because compared to the Euro and GFS this is way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Snow dog said: Not for the NE Georgia folks... When it comes to SE snow it is every man (lady) for himself! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 NAM Freezing Rain Totals: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, wxduncan said: So how accurate is the NAM at this range? Because compared to the Euro and GFS this is way west. I would focus on thermals and not so much synoptics. Someone had mentioned the precip just disappeared at hrs 69-72 and I agree it looks wonky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, wxduncan said: So how accurate is the NAM at this range? Because compared to the Euro and GFS this is way west. It’s usually very useful for thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 23 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: It’s usually very useful for thermals. NAM thermals in any CAD setup is the GOAT jmo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 29 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I would focus on thermals and not so much synoptics. Someone had mentioned the precip just disappeared at hrs 69-72 and I agree it looks wonky. Yeah I went from 4.1(Euro) and 3.6(GFS) for Morganton(Burke County) to blank on that NAM run. But the thermals especially the 850s were great for my area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 21 minutes ago, wxduncan said: Yeah I went from 4.1(Euro) and 3.6(GFS) for Morganton(Burke County) to blank on that NAM run. But the thermals especially the 850s were great for my area. Usually it does a terrible job showing precipitation coverage (usually way underdone) but an above average job at depicting precip type 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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