buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 The trough that will become our ULL is currently pushing through New Mexico 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The trough that will become our ULL is currently pushing through New Mexico Has it been sampled??. Not paying attention to any forecasts until the Chinese ballon samples it. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 hour ago, msuwx said: I was just looking back at old maps for 3/1-2/2009 to see how 2/12/2023 compares: 1) Similar strength of H5 low in low 540s at strongest in SE US but it is progged to remain that strong til well out in the Atlantic vs 2009 opening up: 3/1/2009 H5: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20090301.html 3/2/2009 H5: no longer closed: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20090302.html 2) In 2009 there was a big, strong (1044 mb) high to the NW centered over the Plains feeding in cold air: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_stnplot_20090301.html The upcoming case has no high to the NW to speak of to feed in cold air. However, this time there's moderate CAD from a 1027 mb VA high vs no CAD high in 2009. 3) Related to point #2, temperatures were ~10 colder in 2009 to the NW in the area from St. Louis to Chicago (near normal) vs well above normal this time. However, this time out ahead of the low it is ~5-10 colder (like in VA): https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_minmax_20090301.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Has it been sampled??. Not paying attention to any forecasts until the Chinese ballon samples it. Makes me wonder how many people have called to whatever gov agency about a weather balloon they spotted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, GaWx said: I was just looking back at old maps for 3/1-2/2009 to see how 2/12/2023 compares: 1) Similar strength of H5 low in low 540s at strongest in SE US but it is progged to remain that strong til well out in the Atlantic vs 2009 opening up: 3/1/2009 H5: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20090301.html 3/2/2009 H5: no longer closed: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20090302.html 2) In 2009 there was a big, strong (1044 mb) high to the NW centered over the Plains feeding in cold air: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_stnplot_20090301.html The upcoming case has no high to the NW to speak of to feed in cold air. However, this time there's moderate CAD from a 1027 mb VA high vs no CAD high in 2009. 3) Related to point #2, temperatures were ~10 colder in 2009 to the NW in the area from St. Louis to Chicago (near normal) vs well above normal this time. However, this time out ahead of the low it is ~5-10 colder (like in VA): https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_minmax_20090301.html Pretty sure this all nets out to a hill of beans (or driveway full of puddles) unless you are right under the deform banding. And you may need elevation assistance as well. Whoever gets lucky is going to be reaaalllllyy lucky with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 The Euro looking similar through 54, perhaps a touch south. Not expecting a step towards the stronger GFS solution this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 49 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: I live five minutes from Donaldson. Why do you torture me like this? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 12z Dr No at 66 is a touch southeast than it was at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Just now, buckeyefan1 said: 12z Dr No at 66 is a touch southeast than it was at 06z Yea it doesn't appear to be as west and amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 hr 78 12Z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 12Z Euro has significantly more snow over N GA/upstate SC vs 0Z so far despite a weaker H5 low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Really what we need to be tracking (with respect to low elevation snow)is the 1000-500mb 540 thickness line. The ULL is weak, so it never gets cold enough on the Euro, even with the better track compared to the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Significantly heavier snow accumulations on 12Z Euro vs 0Z NE GA/NW SC/ W NC per Pivotal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Verbatim, that would be severe power outage, tree breaking snows for WNC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Is that the end of the run or did it keep going? Pretty paltry numbers if so for the northern crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: You would think by now GSP would start talking the snow up more for all WNC . The least I've seen the models calling for is 7.3 for Asheville. The local weather on channel 13 is talking token flakes. I do wish we had more cold air close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Really what we need to be tracking (with respect to low elevation snow)is the 1000-500mb 540 thickness line. The ULL is weak, so it never gets cold enough on the Euro, even with the better track compared to the GFS This is right under a heavy band in Virginia as the back end rolls through. Would the column cool more than depicted in this case? Probably. But there just needs to be a deeper cold source to make this workable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Tacoma said: You would think by now GSP would start talking the snow up more for all WNC . The least I've seen the models calling for is 7.3 for Asheville. The local weather on channel 13 is talking token flakes. I do wish we had more cold air close by. Lol how long have you lived here? You know GSP ain't talking crap up until about 24 to 36 hours. And this is still a high bust situation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 Just got a peak at the Euro. Hospital occasionally expects me to do some work. They're funny that way. I actually like that track and it's more in line with what Snowgoose was saying. I think anyone between I 75 and I 85 is still in play. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 13 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Is that the end of the run or did it keep going? Pretty paltry numbers if so for the northern crew Here's the end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 You would think by now GSP would start talking the snow up more for all WNC . The least I've seen the models calling for is 7.3 for Asheville. The local weather on channel 13 is talking token flakes. I do wish we had more cold air close by. Lol this is pretty typical, they will play major catch up soon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I'm in Burke county right near Morganton. What's everyone's thoughts for my area right now? I mean it seems like both of the models have me getting almost warning criteria. But it feels like I'm right on the edge of something more or less. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 EPS mean: Similar to how the GEFS eliminated some of its eastern outliers the EPS eliminated some of its western ones. Seems they are trying to meet in the middle maybe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, wxduncan said: I'm in Burke county right near Morganton. What's everyone's thoughts for my area right now? I mean it seems like both of the models have me getting almost warning criteria. But it feels like I'm right on the edge of something more or less. Thoughts? As a fellow foothiller I think we have a good shot but there’s no denying the high risk for downsloping to completely ruin the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: EPS mean: Similar to how the GEFS eliminated some of its eastern outliers the EPS eliminated some of its western ones. Seems they are trying to meet in the middle maybe. Yeah. I gotta say there’s a lot of handwringing here in western NC and SC outside the mountains over what happens but I would be most nervous if I was in eastern Tenn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 2 hours ago, PantherJustin said: not trying to be an ass.... but EYE no offense it was never a triangle thing anyway , and why lock the thread ? you can just not open it , certainly still a possibility for anyone along and W/NW of 77. I mean i get the discouragement but enough with this garbage man youre better than this It’s been this way for a couple of years now. Use the block feature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Upstate areas better be smiling after that Euro run. That’s a positive trend. NC mountain areas are about to get smoked! If there was a Storm anyone wanted to drive up for it would be this one. Wet snow is going to look beautiful up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 12 minutes ago, BooneWX said: As a fellow foothiller I think we have a good shot but there’s no denying the high risk for downsloping to completely ruin the event. Little more faith giving for our area after the 12z euro run. The line is tight as it is always round here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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