BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 FWIW, the 12z GEFS and CMCE ,look really good area wide. The cmc op and its ensembles definitely differ from one another.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 15 minutes ago, BooneWX said: This whole setup is going to be extremely rate dependent. I highly doubt anyone outside of the mountains will experience a lot of light snow. It’ll either be snowing cats and dogs or you’ll be getting drizzle and light rain. The joys of an ULL right? Someone under a death band and someone else getting rain a few miles away. Yep "snow islands" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard22 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 23 minutes ago, BooneWX said: This whole setup is going to be extremely rate dependent. I highly doubt anyone outside of the mountains will experience a lot of light snow. It’ll either be snowing cats and dogs or you’ll be getting drizzle and light rain. The joys of an ULL right? Someone under a death band and someone else getting rain a few miles away. Sounds like what happens in the summer when some areas get drenched and a few miles away its sunny. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 If the antecedent airmass around this storm was even close to what you’d expect for the time of year the H5 setup on GEFS is just about textbook for an area-wide major snow. Too bad there just isn’t any cold air available north of the system or this thing could’ve gone bonkers with the qpf forecast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 The 12z EPS upticked the snowfall for the middle of VA and NC, points west. SW VA with 6" snowfall means Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 I'm where that black dot is. Look at those means just west of my location . Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The 12z EPS upticked the snowfall for the middle of VA and NC, points west. SW VA with 6" snowfall means Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Pretty much in line with the OP. Only time I pay any attention to ensembles is to see if they have agreement or not, otherwise the details aren't so important. Especially with the complexity of the ULL, banding etc., Not being handed so well at the lower resolutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: I'm where that black dot is. Look at those means just west of my location . Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Nice man! I'm in-between the 5.2 and 6.9 where the dark blue intersects the purple. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said: That’s a Floyd VA to Blacksburg and NRV mauling. Also you know something’s up when @Discis lurking.. Here and watching. Our best chance at snow all winter. ULLs can do some crazy stuff, so this will be a wild ride the next few days. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 23 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said: Sounds like what happens in the summer when some areas get drenched and a few miles away it’s sunny. Pretty much the exact same convective nature. There’s a reason they call upper level lows a “forecasters woe.” Some will be happy, most will be pissed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 The probability of 1" or greater improved on both the GEFS and EPS (12Z) as compared to previous runs...for most of central NC. Still low, but good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 I think we should have a little more clarity once this complex trough interaction takes place in the next 36 hrs. I can't imagine models are going to Handle it perfectly, and it will have a pretty big effect on our ULL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 31 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: The probability of 1" or greater improved on both the GEFS and EPS (12Z) as compared to previous runs...for most of central NC. Still low, but good trends. 1" of snow (fall) that will add up to precisely zero on the ground. We had a similar event here in the triad a few years ago but the date escapes me. Snowed hard all afternoon and got nothing but some white mulch. East of 52 and south of 40 is in hail mary land. The ball is long enough, high enough but is likely going to be batted down at the last second. I'm putting down the pre-emergent tomorrow. Might as well be purposeful. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: 1" of snow (fall) that will add up to precisely zero on the ground. We had a similar event here in the triad a few years ago but the date escapes me. Snowed hard all afternoon and got nothing but some white mulch. East of 52 and south of 40 is in hail mary land. The ball is long enough, high enough but is likely going to be batted down at the last second. I'm putting down the pre-emergent tomorrow. Might as well be purposeful. Correct. I looked at snowfall, not snow depth. But the way this season has been, I'd love to see a snow fall, even if it doesn't stick! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 18z NAM says what’s up eastern TN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 84 hour NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 The 18z ICON looks pretty meh..Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just a few more adjustments and Ohio will be winning this one. Congrats Midwest folks Join me in the Sanitarium tomorrow afternoon for a song and dance routine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 If the GFS is further west with a couple of runs, I’ll call it a trend. But since the others are catching up to what it has shown for days, I’m going to reserve judgment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 The placement of the low looks good on the NAM to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 GFS is not moving in the right direction. Seems weaker and further SW at 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 March 2009.. I had 8-10" in my forecast down in Lexington, SC. And we got a dry slot and 0". Not even a dusting. Here's hoping the whole board gets something white on the ground!Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FamouslyHot Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, Buckethead said: March 2009.. I had 8-10" in my forecast down in Lexington, SC. And we got a dry slot and 0". Not even a dusting. Here's hoping the whole board gets something white on the ground! Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk That one stung. I lived in Irmo at the time. First time I was old enough to do any kind of tracking and the disappointment when I woke up was immeasurable. The day off from school was nice though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Lol 18z GFS says what storm Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 Nothing particularly concerning to me on the 18z. Track means everything here. We’re 4 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said: Nothing particularly concerning to me on the 18z. Track means everything here. We’re 4 days out. exactly it definitely is still there and track looked great to me lol for same folks probably CLT - GSO points N/W 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 18z GFS is much further south and a hair slower. If you live from Augusta to greenwood to Charlotte, 18z is about as good as you can ask for 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 18z GFS is much further south and a hair slower. If you live from Augusta to greenwood to Charlotte, 18z is about as good as you can ask forI think that models are going to start converging, SC scored to avoid a shoutout.One thing to notw is that this weekend is the 50th anniversary for the Blizzard of 73.Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: 18z GFS is much further south and a hair slower. If you live from Augusta to greenwood to Charlotte, 18z is about as good as you can ask for EXACTLY CLT metro atleast on paper was the winner there so track looks fine the rest will take care of itself as Tiger said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 EXACTLY CLT metro atleast on paper was the winner there so track looks fine the rest will take care of itself as Tiger said Here is the thing, the SE as a whole outside the mountains has been shut out, this is possibly the last chance to score at bare minimum mood flakes or some light ZRSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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