Upstate Tiger Posted February 10, 2023 Author Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: It’s absurd. We’ve unlocked a new way to fail: a cool pool ULL that’s not even cold enough for snow even in foothills with a strong LP blossoming along the coast in early February Frustrating is an understatement. Hang in there though. This issue if far from settled. I am reserving all judgement until tomorrow's afternoon suite comes out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 12Z NAM with a 1028 Meso High situated nicely over the IN/OH border. I'm going to be monitoring that to see if it can make a difference as precip nears the areas of concern for wintry weather. So far at 36 precip looks a little delayed compared to 6z. That tiny high really books it next couple frames and dews are progged to be a couple degrees warmer from last run. This is going the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Last 3 runs on the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 12z NAM went the wrong way. Everything has gone the wrong way since noon yesterday. Looking more and more like a mountains-only deal and even there they will have mixing issues. What a disaster the last 18 hours of model runs has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: 12z NAM went the wrong way. Everything has gone the wrong way since noon yesterday. Looking more and more like a mountains-only deal and even there they will have mixing issues. What a disaster the last 18 hours of model runs has been I honestly don't even buy the freezing rain potential. It will end up being 36 and rain.. it never fails. What a freakin year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 3K Total Snowfall.. Only thing we can hope for at this point is the Nam is being the Nam but we're starting to get closer to the event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 12K NAM Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: 3K Total Snowfall.. Only thing we can hope for at this point is the Nam is being the Nam but we're starting to get closer to the event.. It's not just the NAM showing this though. The high res GFS fv3, HRRR, and canadian. Only the highest peaks may get 6+ out of this and that's even questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Just now, Buddy1987 said: I honestly don't even buy the freezing rain potential. It will end up being 36 and rain.. it never fails. What a freakin year. I don’t buy it at all. It’s just simply not cold enough for freezing rain and it will now be falling in daylight. I had held out hope that folks outside of the mountains would get a decent thump and it looked very promising as recently as 12z yesterday but models have trended: 1) Even slower. Now a daytime event Sunday and it gives the cool pool everyone outside the mountains is totally relying on more time to moderate 2) much drier in deform area. Mid levels dry out when you’d think precip would be solid and you end up with no snow to bring cold air down, a huge issue with temps 3) Further NW with low tracking inland 4) Presence of the dreaded warm nose Im not saying it’s impossible someone gets lucky but it would seem this threat is dead outside the mountains and even there the snow potential seems half of what it was yesterday through 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: I don’t buy it at all. It’s just simply not cold enough for freezing rain and it will now be falling in daylight. I had held out hope that folks outside of the mountains would get a decent thump and it looked very promising as recently as 12z yesterday but models have trended: 1) Even slower. Now a daytime event Sunday and it gives the cool pool everyone outside the mountains is totally relying on more time to moderate 2) much drier in deform area. Mid levels dry out when you’d think precip would be solid and you end up with no snow to bring cold air down, a huge issue with temps 3) Further NW with low tracking inland 4) Presence of the dreaded warm nose Im not saying it’s impossible someone gets lucky but it would seem this threat is dead outside the mountains and even there the snow potential seems half of what it was yesterday through 12z Hell at this point if I had a 2-4 hr period of moderate snow up this way and we got an inch or two, the way things have gone this year, i'd be elated, BUT I don't even foresee it even up deep into the Blue Ridge. I will reserve final judgment until GFS comes out, because it's been pretty consistent with a heavy band of snow traversing northern and northwestern most areas of the forum once the ULL swings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 It's not just the NAM showing this though. The high res GFS fv3, HRRR, and canadian. Only the highest peaks may get 6+ out of this and that's even questionable. Yes, this actually looks pretty realistic….. as good as mountains are for CAD help, they will absolutely Shred the “Death Band” if it doesn’t form perfectly and scoot under it thru the upstate it will just be wrung out like a summer time band from TN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 High RES GFS (FV3) looks rather similar with band of snow at the end of it's run. Looks like it's trying to exhibit some convective elements in it as well. Kinda let's me know GFS will still have it. Let's see what GFS shows in about 30 minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 And that about just puts the nail in the coffin with GFS. Maybe higher peaks and around Asheville area but outside that threat is pretty much cooked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Weirdest El Nino-ish La Nina I can remember being in this year. What's it called when you get the rain of a Nino but the warmth of a Nina? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bevo said: Weirdest El Nino-ish La Nina I can remember being in this year. What's it called when you get the rain of a Nino but the warmth of a Nina? Shit 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, Bevo said: What's it called when you get the rain of a Nino but the warmth of a Nina? FLORIDA 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Never give up till HRRR tells you no ….. however CLT is in EXTREME danger of breaking that all time record “NEVER has CLT not atleast had a trace at airport since like 1890” . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 25 minutes ago, Bevo said: Weirdest El Nino-ish La Nina I can remember being in this year. What's it called when you get the rain of a Nino but the warmth of a Nina? Seattle 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 This Winter has been basically a hybrid strong Nina/Nino one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 December 2018 was the last time my street was plowed. That shows the kind of rut we’re in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 I think it is time to "stick a fork" in it. This one is done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 NAM can't make up it's mind. Moving in precip much quicker than 12Z did. Don't know if it will make any difference for those that are on the fence with temps and time of day etc.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: NAM can't make up it's mind. Moving in precip much quicker than 12Z did. Don't know if it will make any difference for those that are on the fence with temps and time of day etc.. Actually, it should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Just now, Daniel Boone said: Actually, it should help. NAM warmer so far at 18Z. I did see Euro however and it did look pretty darn good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Just now, Buddy1987 said: NAM warmer so far at 18Z. I did see Euro however and it did look pretty darn good. hmm., faster arrival time before daytime heating should make for colder. tht's what looked like is what caused models to back off on snowfall; the later arrival of precip till Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 LONGGGGGGG range HRRR way colder than any NAM product. Very sleety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 LONGGGGGGG range HRRR way colder than any NAM product. Very sleety.GFS although from Tidbits ummmm looked much different…. Ik Ik Tidbits but still hell of a change . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: GFS although from Tidbits ummmm looked much different…. Ik Ik Tidbits but still hell of a change . What do you mean? I don’t think I’m following you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 What do you mean? I don’t think I’m following you. It won’t let me post a pic … but it was 6-8” amounts basically 77 west up thru your area in VA . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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