WXNewton Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 18Z NAM to 00z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Hi Res NAM only goes to 60 but isnt as good overall. Further north with low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 minute ago, WXNewton said: 18Z NAM to 00z NAM Let’s us all know it still has a bit of time until it gets more into its wheelhouse. Very positive trends though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Hi Res GFS looks pretty bad too through 60. It also has ice for mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Hi Res GFS looks pretty bad too through 60. It also has ice for mountains. You have any idea how it’s verification scores match up to other low level cold models? I’m not sure I’ve ever seen someone in here touch on it. It’s definitely the warmest. I’d also like to see RGEM and Canadian cool down somewhat. They’ve been running warmer than other guidance as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Hi Res GFS looks pretty bad too through 60. It also has ice for mountains. The ice is bogus...going to be rain or snow 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Comparing the hi res NAM to the 18z run, the 3km did improve a little... The low is further east and the temps are lower (both air and soil)Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 10, 2023 Author Share Posted February 10, 2023 NAM was definitely an improvement for the foothills of the Carolinas. Now just just a little bit more to get us in the game from Shelby, Lincolnton, Mooresville line north and west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 NAM was definitely an improvement for the foothills of the Carolinas. Now just just a little bit more to get us in the game from Shelby, Lincolnton, Mooresville line north and west. Yea…. Still got 48-60hrs 25 miles a day lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 10, 2023 Author Share Posted February 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Yea…. Still got 48-60hrs 25 miles a day lol . By Saturday we should be in the jackpot zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 One thing to keep in mind is that ground temps will be quite warm, surface temps may be a tad above freezing even during some of the snow (except in the mountains), so a lot of melting will occur, so accumulations at least on many surfaces will likely be less that what the models are showing. Further melting will happen soon after the event occurs since there will be no real cold air once the ULL departs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard22 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: One thing to keep in mind is that ground temps will be quite warm, surface temps may be a tad above freezing even during some of the snow (except in the mountains), so a lot of melting will occur, so accumulations at least on many surfaces will likely be less that what the models are showing. Further melting will happen soon after the event occurs since there will be no real cold air once the ULL departs. Is there no model or map that takes into account ground temps ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 54 hrs mainly has any type of wintry precip confined to mountain areas of far northwestern NC and then into southern Virginia. nvm spoke too soon hr 60 majority of WNC getting smoked.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Yeah, sorry I don’t believe south central Georgia does better than portions of NC and VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Asheville at 8.5” with Kuchera method. Roanoke 7.4. Pretty much entire spine of western NC is 4-8” verbatim with Kuchera on GFS. @BornAgain132-4” type of event down your way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Asheville at 8.5” with Kuchera method. Roanoke 7.4. Pretty much entire spine of western NC is 4-8” verbatim with Kuchera on GFS. [mention=14047]BornAgain13[/mention]2-4” type of event down your way. Yeah the GFS has been consistent throughout the day. Would love to see the Euro show that for here. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 I gotta say, I think ground temps are talked about way too much in these situations. Ambient air temps matter and will be a problem for some, but I wouldn't worry too much about ground temps as long as the rates are there. Plus in my experience in top down cooling scenarios, if the rates are persistent they can literally drag freezing air to the surface. Warms up as soon as it moves out, but still aids in accumulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Lot of ZR on the GEFS.. Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Lot of ZR on the GEFS.. Sent from my SM-S102DL using TapatalkJust don't see that happening. U have to have 32 or below at the surface for ZR. I believe the models are wrong about the ice.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Not good trends on the overnight models for anyone east of the mountains. No cold air to speak of. Too far North and too weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 There are positive depth change maps on pivotalweather+ for the ensembles (below), I think the GFS op is free. 10:1 and Kuchera ain't gonna cut it, and in reality, no snow map will capture the differences between what accumulates on trees/vegetation/grass vs pavement. Slower trends could put more of the snow into the day Sunday rather than Saturday night, which could limit accumulations on roadways outside of the mountains. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 There is almost better agreement on the freezing rain potential than for snow. A surface high over the Mid-Atlantic could maintain just enough dry air to wet bulb surface temps down to or below freezing near the Blue Ridge (esp. sheltered valleys and some ridge tops) as the heaviest precip moves through. The TROWAL (trough of warm air aloft) provides the melting aloft for that and also contributes to the upright instability that will be crucial for flipping rain over to snow despite marginal boundary layer temps for elevations below ~1500'. The favored zone for heavy snow will be just northwest of the core of the closed 700/500mb circulations, but predicting where and when convection occurs this far out, even on hi-res guidance, is next to impossible. That's why ensembles are still a good tool for a marginal situation like this. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 52 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: There is almost better agreement on the freezing rain potential than for snow. A surface high over the Mid-Atlantic could maintain just enough dry air to wet bulb surface temps down to or below freezing near the Blue Ridge (esp. sheltered valleys and some ridge tops) as the heaviest precip moves through. The TROWAL (trough of warm air aloft) provides the melting aloft for that and also contributes to the upright instability that will be crucial for flipping rain over to snow despite marginal boundary layer temps for elevations below ~1500'. The favored zone for heavy snow will be just northwest of the core of the closed 700/500mb circulations, but predicting where and when convection occurs this far out, even on hi-res guidance, is next to impossible. That's why ensembles are still a good tool for a marginal situation like this. Any analogs you can think of for this sort of ZR event? I figure there isn't really a chance for this to occur below 1,500 ft or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Any analogs you can think of for this sort of ZR event? I figure there isn't really a chance for this to occur below 1,500 ft or so Nah, I've only lived in ATL a year. CIPS analogs are below. The shading is probs for >4" of snow based on the 00Z NAM. CIPS doesn't have FZRA as far as I can tell, but you can see the top 15 analogs in that drop down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Ouch… overnight and morning runs were not good for anyone. Hope something changes otherwise this is a novelty event for anyone who even sees snow outside the mountains. Here in Raleigh we’ll enjoy our not-even-that-cold rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 It’d be neat to have cold air on this side of continent, wouldn’t it? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 SE ridge gonna make the low cut more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, BooneWX said: It’d be neat to have cold air on this side of continent, wouldn’t it? It’s absurd. We’ve unlocked a new way to fail: a cool pool ULL that’s not even cold enough for snow even in foothills with a strong LP blossoming along the coast in early February 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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