Ephesians2 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 18z GFS looks slightly northwest of 12z. Still, just barely, keeping hope of something alive for my backyard on the border between this forum and the Mid-Atlantic forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 37 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: 18z GFS looks slightly northwest of 12z. Still, just barely, keeping hope of something alive for my backyard on the border between this forum and the Mid-Atlantic forum. A good run increased the amounts for the foothills a good bit. And even put some totals down further east towards the Piedmont. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 12Z GEFS and 18Z GEFS- uptick in the NW Piedmont and foothills. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 The cutoff ULL at 500 is over northeastern GA and western SC/NC at 66 hrs. At these leads, it is time to follow the ops for synoptics and precip and the NAMs for thermals/precip type. Ensembles have limited usefulness less than 3 days out and almost always start caving to higher resolution ops and mesos. This storm looks great for the places I mentioned above and for the mountains and hopefully foothills. We would want to see the ULL be even stronger for the lowlands to cash in significantly with this warm antecedent air mass. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 18Z Euro was an improvement over recent runs for the northern piedmont of NC. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 34 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: The cutoff ULL at 500 is over northeastern GA and western SC/NC at 66 hrs. At these leads, it is time to follow the ops for synoptics and precip and the NAMs for thermals/precip type. Ensembles have limited usefulness less than 3 days out and almost always start caving to higher resolution ops and mesos. This storm looks great for the places I mentioned above and for the mountains and hopefully foothills. We would want to see the ULL be even stronger for the lowlands to cash in significantly with this warm antecedent air mass. . How much more of an adjustment would you want to see for the Foothills to cash in? Only thing that worry's me is the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Thermals are kinda trash, but a nice track for the piedmont that run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 How much more of an adjustment would you want to see for the Foothills to cash in? Only thing that worry's me is the temps.A stronger low with a slightly more southerly placement than shown two posts above. Going to be a tight fine line this way for sure. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: A stronger low with a slightly more southerly placement than shown two posts above. Going to be a tight fine line this way for sure. . Yeah, especially since I feel we've seen stronger ULLs get tugged further north/inland (and vice versa). Also the potential is limited because the western Piedmont and northern foothills will likely sit in the dry slot for a while 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 19 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: A stronger low with a slightly more southerly placement than shown two posts above. Going to be a tight fine line this way for sure. . Agreed, but usually stronger lows like to climb in latitude as they amplify, so it is tough to get both adjustments unfortunately. Not saying it can’t happen, though. Fingers crossed. You all are in a much better spot than I am for this one. I about 2 or 3 counties north of your forum in Augusta County, VA at 1550 ft. Hoping for a Super Bowl miracle and then a day off from school for my kids and work since my wife and I both teach. And sledding for the first time this season! Lol But you all have a much better ULL pass going for you which is able to pull down cold air from the heavens above since there is no cold air in the eastern US or SE Canada to pull from due to the persistent SER this winter. I hope you all get obliterated with snow and someone jacks with 2 feet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Low is a touch north through hr 21 on the 0z NAMSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Low is a touch north through hr 21 on the 0z NAM Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk HR 19 you can see very subtle differences with the base of the trough leading to this imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 HR 19 you can see very subtle differences with the base of the trough leading to this imo.My thoughts exactlySent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 A hair more amped at hr 27 looking at the vort and 500mb tempsSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: My thoughts exactly Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Oddly enough by hr 28 Nam is much drier over MS/AL. Curious to see what happens closer to our areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Oddly enough by hr 28 Nam is much drier over MS/AL. Curious to see what happens closer to our areas. Keep in mind it is a tick north and colder at 500mb, would be harder to get the column moistSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Interesting enough, vort is a touch south at hr 36...Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Qpf won't blossom until the trough goes negative tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 HR 39 there is a bit better of a push with 2m dew points. Another subtle but very important difference. Very nice to see northern most Georgia with a dew of 14 at hr45. Encouraging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Precip a little bit quicker to get into WNC at 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Incoming!Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Atlanta getting raked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Incoming! Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk NAM has really sped things up this go around. HR 54 has the low about to go over MYR. 18z HR 60 has it over SAV still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 NAM has me below freezing, most models don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Boone, folks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: NAM has me below freezing, most models don't. But then it warms up and turns to rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: But then it warms up and turns to rain I can’t see it warming like that in your area. I think you are in the game on this one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 North GA is definitely in the game with todays trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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