PantherJustin Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 ik its verbatim but 12k still looks decent on paper somehow must be the backend thump, idk didnt look hard im at work shouldnt even be here lol ...... for what its worth 3K was pretty equal at 60hrs (end of its run) placement wise, 3K may have been 25-30 miles further east but no big deal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 also, @msuwx do you have an archived vid "The Carolina wx video" ? i was a Sr in HS but remember your vid on March 2009 if im not mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 12z NAM looks pretty fitting for this setup. Snow confined to the mountains, with ICE/Rain just east of their.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I believe we will see the 12z GFS fold and come back west like the others unfortunately. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 39 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: ik its verbatim but 12k still looks decent on paper somehow must be the backend thump, idk didnt look hard im at work shouldnt even be here lol ...... for what its worth 3K was pretty equal at 60hrs (end of its run) placement wise, 3K may have been 25-30 miles further east but no big deal The TT algorithm is suspect to say the least... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Right now it's looking like the most likely to get a surprise in the lowlands is somewhere in the region from central Alabama, up into northern Georgia and Eastern TN. This is an area that often seems to miss out on the big coastal storms, so that would be a big win for them if it pans out. Still the ongoing caveats about localized banding, dynamics etc. In those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Fwiw , the 12z ICON was warmer and hardly any snow even in the mountains.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Fwiw , the 12z ICON was warmer and hardly any snow even in the mountains.Sent from my SM-N981U using TapatalkCorrection, some snow but not a lot.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Gotta say, for once a more progressive solution would’ve worked out a lot better for most areas. Saturday looks completely dry here now, this thing has slowed wayyyy down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 12z GFS slowed down again.... its caving. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 GFS largely the same I think. Seems to be a bit more consolidated with the ULL, but mostly noise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 This is going to be a good run it appears. Could always be better but it keeps it on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 The stronger ULL yields much better back side dynamic bands of precip. Small changes made a big difference. I don't think we're done just yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z GFS slowed down again.... its caving. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk It caved and did not cave...it was stronger with the ULL but was probably unrealistic taking the track further north...if you're gonna have a Euro like ULL the system is gonna track pretty far south at least until it gets to about SC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The stronger ULL yields much better back side dynamic bands of precip. Small changes made a big difference. I don't think we're done just yet. This! That’s a hell of a deform band that traverses the favored areas. Someone’s gonna get nailed good by that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Just an incredible cut off @Buddy1987 @Disc . Looks good for yalls area.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Someone in the mountains is going to get a foot of snow out of this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 hour ago, PantherJustin said: also, @msuwx do you have an archived vid "The Carolina wx video" ? i was a Sr in HS but remember your vid on March 2009 if im not mistaken 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 The GFS actually seeing snow at this range is pretty crazy. It usually torches the BL, even with a Herculean upper level low. Someone will get plastered but my hunch is you are not gonna see snow down south of I20 in the end 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I think we (triangle) can throw in the towel. Probably could’ve yesterday but I was hanging onto hope. Really pulling for upstate and Georgia folks. Plenty of non-mountain areas still in play for a good storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 21 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Just an incredible cut off@Buddy1987 @Disc . Looks good for yalls area. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk I will believe it when I see it. Wondering how pronounced the warm nose is at 700? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Canadian just continues to want no part of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I think we (triangle) can throw in the towel. Probably could’ve yesterday but I was hanging onto hope. Really pulling for upstate and Georgia folks. Plenty of non-mountain areas still in play for a good storm! Time to lock the thread. This just sucks and there is no other way to say it. Our last hope vaporized almost immediately after this thread was created. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: Time to lock the thread. This just sucks and there is no other way to say it. Our last hope vaporized almost immediately after this thread was created. not trying to be an ass.... but EYE no offense it was never a triangle thing anyway , and why lock the thread ? you can just not open it , certainly still a possibility for anyone along and W/NW of 77. I mean i get the discouragement but enough with this garbage man youre better than this 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 GEFS Mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Canadian just continues to want no part of this It seems to just be almost completely missing the dynamic cooling. I mean it has places going up 5+ degrees while it's puking snow through a -2 to-4 850 layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 UKMET weaker with the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 10 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: GEFS Mean: Im good with this.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 13 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: GEFS Mean: That is an exponential increase from previous runs. Nice to see that at least as we get closer to game time. Canadian thermals worry me however, because normally they tend to run somewhat colder. Now the question is does the Canadian Ensembles disagree with the OP there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwp1023 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I'm right on the Wilkes/Ashe county line sitting at 2500' so I'm hoping we might actually be in the sweet spot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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