Grayman Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 00 Gfs really nice thump for western North and South Carolina. Can’t quite get to my area yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Temps are soooo borderline. This is going to be very close. Moisture is there. Main problem is there’s no antecedent conditions or any major source or supplier of cold air really anywhere around us other than what that ULL can create. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 GEFS Mean: 18z: Current: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Well... I planned on starting the thread yesterday, but someone beat me to it. But, nevertheless, I can do this... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 0z GFS smokes SW VA and the NC mountains. Doesn't give my back yard much at all but I could see it actually playing out like that. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 What is up with all the ice being shown? Thought this was an either rain or snow type of deal.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 0z Euro is all rain, outside the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 WowSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Euro that bad overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Euro that bad overnight? Mountains onlySent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Euro that bad overnight? Yeah, follows the trend of stalling and running the surface low inland while the ULL hangs back west of the APPS, so no cold to be found Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 0z EPS, 6Z GEFSSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 0z EPS, 6Z GEFSSent from my SM-S102DL using TapatalkWow. Major uptick with the 06 run! . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Wow. Major uptick with the 06 run! .Yeah it was, here is the GEFS from 0z to 6zSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 So here's my thinking. Certainly the track of the system more inland is a problem for the Piedmont of NC, as we don't get a chance to be west of the track until the system has spun down. But the other issue seems to be that the SLP is running out ahead of the ULL and the SLP is getting elongated. We need them to be more stacked in order for the better dynamics and access to the cold pool to come into play. See these two model runs 6z this morning vs 6z yesterday morning: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Vs this morning's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 I think the forecaster at KGSP said it best in this mornings AFD “we will likely have to go right to the eve of the event to determine precipitation types”. Complicated dynamics. Oh what I’d give for a 1038 over western NY. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 To me, obviously it's a very complicated setup... with the Euro and eps keeping this a mainly mountain event, that seems more likely to me but their could be some surprises east of the mountains. We will see.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I honestly think mesoscale models may be better for this event given how localized it is going to be. We’re starting to get to the period where I look at NAM thermals more than GFS and Euro and it certainly is maximizing dynamic cooling in the upstate/western piedmont area. For the mountains, I don’t want to jinx it, but this is looking more and more like a lock for a moderate-major snowstorm. KGSP has some of the most entertaining AFD’s of any office and this event is absolutely no different. I totally agree, this is going to be a nightmare to forecast outside the mountains up until it does what it does. Would not surprise me if this is an event a few counties go from a Special Weather statement to a WSW based on what’s actually happening and if the NAMs correct, those rates will overwhelm melting on everything. I think it’s either going to be ridiculously heavy snow with parachutes falling or cold rain. Nothing in between for upstate areas 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 March 2009 keeps getting thrown around and it may be a good analog indeed. My gut says obviously higher elevations will do well but somewhere in the western piedmont, a death band forms and dumps with temps in the mid 30s. There will be a clear screw zone on either side of that band. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 5 hours ago, Sandstorm94 said: Wow Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk someone is gonna get some screenshots later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 This (12z) NAM run looks like it will turn out fun. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Stronger system, much more pronounced warm nose ahead of it at 60-63 hours. ULL is much deeper at that point over MS/AL compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Here we go with the northern trend. Not going in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 Looks like the mountains and Tennessee about to get NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, msuwx said: Stronger system, much more pronounced warm nose ahead of it at 60-63 hours. ULL is much deeper at that point over MS/AL compared to 6z. I think the backend with the ULL swinging through is the best hope for many. Lately, runs have been showing a dry slot and not enough surface cold, but banding could develop with a stronger ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Here we go with the northern trend. Not going in the right direction Yep, don't like that track. Hope Matt chimes in again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 This is trending to be a mid Tennessee and eastern Kentucky system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Biggest takeaway is that it came in way, way stronger at 500mb than the previous run. I mean a lot stronger. Exactly how that closes off, and how the vort energy causes the ULL to wobble, to make a big difference for folks in the western Carolinas. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, msuwx said: Biggest takeaway is that it came in way, way stronger at 500mb than the previous run. I mean a lot stronger. Exactly how that closes off, and how the vort energy causes the ULL to wobble, to make a big difference for folks in the western Carolinas. Yea agree with this as well. Biggest issue at onset will of course be 850s along with the ability to wet bulb down, and unfortunately even as far north as I am in the forum, we don't normally do wet bulb too well. I do love the fact though the ULL gives someone a chance to deform like crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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