PantherJustin Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 looks fine to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 If that ULL at 500 on the 18z gfs could just get some intensity going we'd have good storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 28 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: looks fine to me I think the issue is the storm kinda stalls out and never gets past us.all the cold air aloft slowly disapates 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 The 18z gfs is still faster than it was at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Ugh… 18z GEFS 24 hr qpf looks to have toned it down for now and shifted precip more south and east of SW VA and NC mountains. Hopefully it’s a small blip and 0z comes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Ugh… 18z GEFS 24 hr qpf looks to have toned it down for now and shifted precip more south and east of SW VA and NC mountains. Hopefully it’s a small blip and 0z comes back. Beware GEFS under-dispersal problem. It tends to waffle around with its OP run most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Beware GEFS under-dispersal problem. It tends to waffle around with its OP run most of the time. Gotcha. Appreciate it. To your point the ULL track still wasn’t bad for the northern and northwestern crew and did even appear to be a bit stronger with the closed contour. My take would be qpf would tend to work out in most cases to the northwest of the track. Guess I’d take my chances with a MYR track although I feel like @BornAgain13 area and then into Winston Salem/GSO would seem to benefit a bit more from that track. Beggers definitely cannot be choosers this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Gotcha. Appreciate it. To your point the ULL track still wasn’t bad for the northern and northwestern crew and did even appear to be a bit stronger with the closed contour. My take would be qpf would tend to work out in most cases to the northwest of the track. Guess I’d take my chances with a MYR track although I feel like @BornAgain13 area and then into Winston Salem/GSO would seem to benefit a bit more from that track. Beggers definitely cannot be choosers this season. Yeah, the OP was paltry with precip on the NW side so it tracks that the GEFS would be as well given what we know about it. I think the GFS is probably around the eastern edge of the envelope since all other guidance is west of it. I'd bet on the final track being west of the current GFS, how far west is the million dollar question. Per usual, the safe bet at this point is somewhere between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Anybody going to help out with 18z euro when it comes out? Curious to see what it’s doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Anybody going to help out with 18z euro when it comes out? Curious to see what it’s doing. West and stronger with the vort, couple degrees Celsius colder at the 500mb levelSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Here are the 18Z EPS and GEFS probabilities of 1" of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Westward and stronger trend continues on the EPS. Even though there was much ado about the GFS being east, I'm far more concerned about this west trend that's been going since last night. Euro control jackpots west of knoxville for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Definitely a westward trend. The good thing is we still have a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I’m looking for the common ground when all is set and done, unless GFS takes a large jump westward tonight, then I will start to get a tick more concerned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Just for ha-ha’s, are the SREF’s even available anymore? I always used to like to see which way the NAM was going to go at 0z based on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 As I said, I like Boone for this. Although I guess that’s a safe bet for 90% of southeast storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Just for ha-ha’s, are the SREF’s even available anymore? I always used to like to see which way the NAM was going to go at 0z based on them. Yes they are, but the link is on my computer at work. Will try to remember to send it to you tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 SREF Link https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Just now coming into range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 0Z NAM at 39 already has the ULL southwest of 18Z position by a pretty good bit (eastern OK/western AR vs now southern OK/northern TX. More neutral tilt then positive and the confluence and vort in northern new england looks to be pressing down some. Not entirely sure how that affects things as the run continues but definitely some noticeable differences. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: 0Z NAM at 39 already has the ULL southwest of 18Z position by a pretty good bit (eastern OK/western AR vs now southern OK/northern TX. More neutral tilt then positive and the confluence and vort in northern new england looks to be pressing down some. Not entirely sure how that affects things as the run continues but definitely some noticeable differences. Guidance has trended towards a slower move east of the ULL. If the neutral tilt can hold until it gets towards the east coast states and then go negative, then we all win… I know, self weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, WesternFringe said: Guidance has trended towards a slower move east of the ULL. If the neutral tilt can hold until it gets towards the east coast states and then go negative, then… I know, self weenie By HR 51 at 5h everything kind of evens out basically with the ULL compared to 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 @75 Precip delayed some compared to 18z at 81. One thing I do like is that meso high is placed in a good position. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Georgia folks will like the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Georgia folks will like the nam End of the run looks to be a big sleet storm for majority, although I wonder how deep the warm nose would be because of wind direction and borderline surface temps. Feel like it would be more of a rain/snow scenario however I may be wrong on this too because i'm not going to go too deep into a sounding on the 84 NAM lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Overall, that was a solid run by the 0z NAM. Especially since the storm just got cranking at the end, if it would have went out another 12 hrs, someone was about to get whalloped. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Georgia folks will like the nam Definitely didn't hate it, can't imagine what folks west of Atlanta are thinking with that run. Wish there was just a few more hours on that run to see final totals. Needless to say its the NAM at range, so whoop-de-do, but I gotta say it feels good just to get NAM'd considering how bad this winter has been. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 RDPS was an ice storm in the mountains and a little snow in northern Alabama. Low was pulling north and well inland up through GA. Just another solution out there. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Take the ICON as you may, but 0Z def trended in favor of Western NC and SW VA for a period of heavy snow, esp compared to 18z. Model trends look good starting the night off here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 0z GFS looks like it’s about to get good at hr 66. Moisture primed 0z GFS looks like some of its previous runs prior to 18z. Copious amounts of moisture. A matter now of whether western NC can dynamically cool enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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