wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 UK 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Previous UK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 31 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: 12zgfs 12z icon 12z gdps The GFS model looks like someone is on their knees praying...rightfully so! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, SnowDawg said: Man that is a painful run for North GA. Snow south of Augusta but none up here in the mountains. Its so close where im at. As it stands I think at a minimal a changeover is possible. Accumulating is another story though. Looking closely at the 850 to 950mb levels, there should be more snow on the icon and gfs than indicated between 06z and 15z sunday..but how much is impossible to say since it will be largely rate driven. Frustrating since it seems just a few tens of miles east there is a better chance thanks to 925 caa/dynamical cooling. If its just the smallest bit cooler ne ga would be in a much better spot. At least it happens at the right time of day as we would have no shot if it was during the daytime. But Figures we finally get a good upper low and track and we have almost no cold air to work with. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 44 minutes ago, eyewall said: I actually think you're being a little generously east here and I'm not usually in your grouse boat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 GFS isn't good for Raleigh, but there is still time... and I'm waiting on the GEFS too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Euro looks deeper and slower with the ULL through 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Euro looks deeper and slower with the ULL through 54 Slower bad thing at this point or not necessarily with dynamics in play? I know it was the Nam but it too was slower than 6z. Seems to be a trend. Been in a couple meetings so haven’t been able to really digest anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Slower bad thing at this point or not necessarily with dynamics in play? Slower is not good with the marginal cold air even worse if its delayed until Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 As you can see its further south and slower thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Slower is not good with the marginal cold air even worse if its delayed until Sunday Yea kinda figured. Seemed to me like that meso high and the ULL were timing perfectly. Any trend you or anyone else on here that have noticed with models slowing things down too much this year or no? Guess I don’t see why this can’t absolutely be a plausible scenario. Would be unfortunate but I expect nothing less with this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Good thing about this timing is it is overnight Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 You can hear the Euro groaning as it begrudgingly yields to the GFS 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 The low is further west on the Euro and most of the snow is confined to the foothills and mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 SW Va big winner this run. Some 12-18 totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, wncsnow said: its still awesome its euro still agreeing within 5 days look at Galax lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: That’s a Floyd VA to Blacksburg and NRV mauling. Also you know something’s up when @Discis lurking.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 For now, I'm saying middle of the road between the gfs and euro as we all know the euro loves to hold stuff back. Still plenty of time for it to go either way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Solid run by the Euro. Interesting runs coming up at 18z, as the NAM gets closer into range Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: For now, I'm saying middle of the road between the gfs and euro as we all know the euro loves to hold stuff back. Still plenty of time for it to go either way About to write the same thing. That would be a smart play at this point. This is the best Euro operational run yet. Tomorrow afternoon should give us some sort of sense plus we start getting in NAM range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Solid run by the Euro. Interesting runs coming up at 18z, as the NAM gets closer into range Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk I'd love to see the EE rule apply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Yeah, it runs too far inland for anyone east of the mountains. Hopefully 18z runs can stop the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 If I’m in the mountains or SW Virginia, I’m feeling really really good right now for snow, possibly significant. If I’m along the 85 corridor from the upstate through Charlotte to the triad, I’m feeling pretty good about seeing snow. Accumulations are 50/50 there right now. East of 85, you’re getting into “say a prayer” mode. Im happy as long as part of this forum scores with this one. It was never going to be a synoptic area-wide event so really not much has changed other than timing and where the narrow snow area goes. I bet it waffles back and forth the next few days. If you want snow further east, look for a more progressive, amped solution. Slower solutions are getting tugged further north and west and are allowing the upper levels to warm further east after the low passes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 That is just a disaster for sure. Hurry and reserve a spot in the sanitarium now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Looks like a mtns and foothills storm to me unless something changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 This whole setup is going to be extremely rate dependent. I highly doubt anyone outside of the mountains will experience a lot of light snow. It’ll either be snowing cats and dogs or you’ll be getting drizzle and light rain. The joys of an ULL right? Someone under a death band and someone else getting rain a few miles away. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Looks like a mtns and foothills storm to me unless something changes Yep turn out the lights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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