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February 11-12 ULL Winter Storm


Upstate Tiger
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1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

Man that is a painful run for North GA.  Snow south of Augusta but none up here in the mountains.

Its so close where im at. As it stands I think at a minimal a changeover is possible. Accumulating is another story though. Looking closely at the 850 to 950mb levels, there should be more snow on the icon and gfs than indicated between 06z and 15z sunday..but how much is impossible to say since it will be largely  rate driven. Frustrating since it seems just a few tens of miles east there is a better chance thanks to 925 caa/dynamical cooling. If its just the smallest bit cooler ne ga would be in a much better spot.

At least it happens at the right time of day as we would have no shot if it was during the daytime. But Figures we finally get a good upper low and track and we have almost no cold air to work with.

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2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro looks deeper and slower with the ULL through 54

Slower bad thing at this point or not necessarily with dynamics in play? 
 

I know it was the Nam but it too was slower than 6z. Seems to be a trend. Been in a couple meetings so haven’t been able to really digest anything else. 

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4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Slower is not good with the marginal cold air even worse if its delayed until Sunday

Yea kinda figured. Seemed to me like that meso high and the ULL were timing perfectly. Any trend you or anyone else on here that have noticed with models slowing things down too much this year or no? Guess I don’t see why this can’t absolutely be a plausible scenario. Would be unfortunate but I expect nothing less with this winter. 

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3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

For now, I'm saying middle of the road between the gfs and euro as we all know the euro loves to hold stuff back. Still plenty of time for it to go either way ;) 

About to write the same thing.  That would be a smart play at this point.  This is the best Euro operational run yet.  Tomorrow afternoon should give us some sort of sense plus we start getting in NAM range.  

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If I’m in the mountains or SW Virginia, I’m feeling really really good right now for snow, possibly significant. If I’m along the 85 corridor from the upstate through Charlotte to the triad, I’m feeling pretty good about seeing snow. Accumulations are 50/50 there right now. East of 85, you’re getting into “say a prayer” mode.

Im happy as long as part of this forum scores with this one. It was never going to be a synoptic area-wide event so really not much has changed other than timing and where the narrow snow area goes. I bet it waffles back and forth the next few days.

If you want snow further east, look for a more progressive, amped solution. Slower solutions are getting tugged further north and west and are allowing the upper levels to warm further east after the low passes. 

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This whole setup is going to be extremely rate dependent. I highly doubt anyone outside of the mountains will experience a lot of light snow. It’ll either be snowing cats and dogs or you’ll be getting drizzle and light rain. The joys of an ULL right? Someone under a death band and someone else getting rain a few miles away.:scooter:

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