hawkeye_wx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 All southeast models came back nw, at least a bit, this morning. The totals should probably be cut back even more than Kuchera because the ground will be warmish and very wet/soggy when it begins to snow. The bottom inch of snow will turn to slush. 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 This storm is basically like a summary of the winter around here, with the excitement missing in every direction. The snow will be nw, the best precip will probably be west (and also maybe south), the highest winds will probably be south, and the marginal severe risk for tomorrow is currently placed just to my south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 looks like MSN is reeling this one in. Partying like it's 2007-2009 again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, madwx said: looks like MSN is reeling this one in. Partying like it's 2007-2009 again But it will melt in a couple of days anyway - what's the point? I didn't realize it was April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said: But it will melt in a couple of days anyway - what's the point? I didn't realize it was April. By the time good snow threats show up for us (if they do. I'm in show-me mode at this point) you can forget about having a sustained snow cover in our area. Not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said: But it will melt in a couple of days anyway - what's the point? I didn't realize it was April. most winter folks are on here to track accumulating snow, not snow cover. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: By the time good snow threats show up for us (if they do. I'm in show-me mode at this point) you can forget about having a sustained snow cover in our area. Not happening. We just had our most sustained stretch of snow cover in the Detroit area this winter, 17 days. The other "stretch" was 7 days at Christmas. Just not a good year for snow cover. But I cannot believe anyone, beavis no less, would turn down a snowstorm because it'll melt in a few days lol. And by the way it is possible to roll off smaller streaks of snow cover in March, don't give up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Some folks are never satisfied... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Also, I can't help but laugh at the Winter Storm Warning for 3-6". In normal times, that would be a mere advisory for IA/WI... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 There is a winter storm warning for Cedar Rapids. This is what the HRRR is predicting as the storm is about to start. Given the warm, wet ground this is probably the max we will get. I'm going with only 1-3" in Cedar Rapids. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Time 2 jackpot 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 sad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Looking to be 2-4" here for accumulation. A decent little hit but man if we had a typical February airmass this would be a 12"+ hit for the 151-41 corridor. This is the perfect track for that corridor with a low just north of Chicago. Still going to be a decent hit, but it is a little frustrating having such a great track at the perfect time of year be so marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Unbelievably, the 00z NAM and 3kNAM both just totally cancelled the storm for Cedar Rapids and Dubuque. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 26 minutes ago, madwx said: Time 2 jackpot "jackpot" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: We just had our most sustained stretch of snow cover in the Detroit area this winter, 17 days. The other "stretch" was 7 days at Christmas. Just not a good year for snow cover. But I cannot believe anyone, beavis no less, would turn down a snowstorm because it'll melt in a few days lol. And by the way it is possible to roll off smaller streaks of snow cover in March, don't give up yet. So I looked up some stats for Chicago. The last time there was 3 consecutive days with 1"+ of snow on the ground in March was in 2017. The last time there was 7 consecutive days with 1"+ of snow on the ground in March was in 2015. Didn't check other streak lengths for March, but I'm guessing there wouldn't be a lot of Marches that had snowcover for 2 weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 52 minutes ago, Hoosier said: So I looked up some stats for Chicago. The last time there was 3 consecutive days with 1"+ of snow on the ground in March was in 2017. The last time there was 7 consecutive days with 1"+ of snow on the ground in March was in 2015. Didn't check other streak lengths for March, but I'm guessing there wouldn't be a lot of Marches that had snowcover for 2 weeks. 2018 was the last March at DTW that had 3 or more days with 1"+ on the ground. But again we've had some fickle March's lately. In 2015 we had 13 days in a row, and 2014 we had 17 days in a row. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 My final call is one inch or less. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sielicki Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Went from 9” on Monday to 0” for me. I hate this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 @cyclone77you might get a surprise event dare I say? Or are you still too east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 It always bums me out to see a rainstorm in the heart of winter. We only got 3 legit months for chances of snow. It can rain anytime of the yr, just not these 3 months. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 grime be gone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 10 hours ago, Geoboy645 said: Looking to be 2-4" here for accumulation. A decent little hit but man if we had a typical February airmass this would be a 12"+ hit for the 151-41 corridor. This is the perfect track for that corridor with a low just north of Chicago. Still going to be a decent hit, but it is a little frustrating having such a great track at the perfect time of year be so marginal. Story of every weather setup in this region; winter precip or severe, for the last seven years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I picked up 0.40" of rain overnight. It just switched to snow, so the models at least nailed the timing of that. The problem is we are at the nw edge of the precip shield, so how much snow we get will depend on the stronger precip holding over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 2 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said: @cyclone77you might get a surprise event dare I say? Or are you still too east? Too far east here. The nose of IA looks like where that narrow band of snow falls now. May still get a period of wet snow later this morning but not expecting much if any accum from here points east. The western side of the QC may end up with some accumulations, gonna be close. Heavy rain pouring here. 0.57" so far and climbing quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 would be nice to string together a few good soaks as we approach growing season 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: I picked up 0.40" of rain overnight. It just switched to snow, so the models at least nailed the timing of that. The problem is we are at the nw edge of the precip shield, so how much snow we get will depend on the stronger precip holding over us. Hope you can get a couple inches before it ends!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I am over an inch, but the snow rate is very inconsistent. There have been a few real nice bursts with big flakes, but they are brief. We still have little pockets of mix moving through, which tanks the snow rate. It's snowing more heavily down in Iowa City where the stronger precip band is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Looks to be ripping in Madison per radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Looks to be ripping in Madison per radarConfirmed. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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