February Banter 2023

[Mrs.J]

Ok have some questions about today's weather and I think this is the best place to ask. 

This week is FFA week at the youngest Miss J's school. I am supposed to be trailering over the horse she is riding from Lovettesville, VA this afternoon for a presentation at 2:30 here in SW Frederick Co. Have gotten the Wind advisory update and have heard about possible storms. I am trying to decide if I will be good to trailer over for the presentation or will I be dealing with gusty winds and storms in that time frame. 

[George BM]

38 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Ok have some questions about today's weather and I think this is the best place to ask. 

This week is FFA week at the youngest Miss J's school. I am supposed to be trailering over the horse she is riding from Lovettesville, VA this afternoon for a presentation at 2:30 here in SW Frederick Co. Have gotten the Wind advisory update and have heard about possible storms. I am trying to decide if I will be good to trailer over for the presentation or will I be dealing with gusty winds and storms in that time frame. 

I'm not a trailer expert and am unsure exactly what strength the winds would have to be in order to blow a trailer over... and it also depends on the trailers profile. But what I will say is that VA to Frederick, MD is generally a north to south (or south to north in this case) path. Winds will be out of the W/WNW gusting over 50mph at times, as you already know.

I guess my biggest concern would be the crosswinds that the trailer could experience during the trip. Usually blow-overs occur when crosswinds are stronger say 60, 70+mph? But the weight of the trailer also matters, of course. 

Most likely the trailer will be fine but I'm no expert at this stuff. Hopefully someone with more knowledge answers your question. 

[LP08]

Any chance @nj2va can turn on some snow in McHenry this weekend?  Do what you have to do!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

BTW I went against your bold pick and against my  heart and took KC on the moneyline. Thinking I should do that with your March 8 outlook as well. Thanks for the hot takes.

EPO has trended so warm lately that it might see-saw then. I've seen it happen before. Doesn't mean that a storm won't avoid us when/if that happens.. I like that EPO-timing of our lifting out of west-based -NAO block, and active STJ, too bad it will be the 2nd or 3rd week of March. 

[RevWarReenactor]

Heading to upstate NY to chase the wed/thursday storm Super excited. Maybe 8-12 inches if I find the right spot. If I had to deal with 70's and 80's down here on Thursday I'd probably lose it.

Kind of amazing the temp contrast. Will post photos.

 

[H2O]

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

WTOP says the SSW is going to “knock a polar vortex through DC the last two weeks of March.” So we got that going for us.

We will get the Carl Spackler of polar vortexes

[Mrs.J]

4 hours ago, George BM said:

I'm not a trailer expert and am unsure exactly what strength the winds would have to be in order to blow a trailer over... and it also depends on the trailers profile. But what I will say is that VA to Frederick, MD is generally a north to south (or south to north in this case) path. Winds will be out of the W/WNW gusting over 50mph at times, as you already know.

I guess my biggest concern would be the crosswinds that the trailer could experience during the trip. Usually blow-overs occur when crosswinds are stronger say 60, 70+mph? But the weight of the trailer also matters, of course. 

Most likely the trailer will be fine but I'm no expert at this stuff. Hopefully someone with more knowledge answers your question. 

Thanks for this. E'ring on the side of caution as I would have been pulling a 1200lb. horse by himself, so would have had an unbalanced load, total 6500 load across 340 we decided that it was just not worth it. My friend who's truck and trailer I would have been using told me that over in Lovettesville their new EV truck was getting blown around so made the right decision. My daughter is going to reschedule and did a 180 to have me gather up tack and riding clothing for her to present with a last minute slide show. 

[MN Transplant]

6 hours ago, 09-10 analogy said:

Ho-hum, another wind advisory. Wind chime retailers in the DMV must be making a fortune, what with all the replacement business traffic they get. 

I am enjoying reading some of the AFDs from out west and the Upper Midwest. Live vicariously, I suppose. I especially like this part from MPX:

By 6PM, the phasing and vertical continuity of the upper
levels is evident, creating a phenomenal scene at the surface.
As the surface low moves up from the southwest, winds will approach
25 to 35 MPH areawide, with gusts approaching 45 to 50 MPH in
western and central MN ... 

This would be similar to what occurred April
2018, when the Twin Cities received 15.8 inches of snow. Due to
obstructions, it is hard to get blizzard conditions in major
metropolitan areas such as the Twin Cities, but with the actively
falling snow and strong winds, this would be an event that could do
so.

Speaking historically, this event could very well break top five
snowfalls in the Twin Cities dating back to 1884. 

It goes on to mention the "Domebuster" storm -- one of the top 5 -- of 2010. Great name for a snowstorm, I guess that was the one that caused the Metrodome's roof to deflate. 

Here's a really interesting aspect of the storm this week in Minneapolis. Of the top 24 snowfalls (which are relatively modest due to the distance from moisture sources), you have to go down to #20 to get to one that is in February.  The storm track is usually shunted south.  Also note that 3 and 4 are in the same week, their version of Feb. 2010.

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/top_twenty_snowfalls.html

 

Top Twenty Snowfalls for Twin Cities
1.  28.4 inches: 1991 October 31 - November 3 (Halloween Blizzard)
2.  21.1 inches: 1985 November 29 - December 1 (Thanksgiving Weekend)
3.  20.0 inches: 1982 January 22 - 23
4.  17.4 inches: 1982 January 20 - 21
5.  17.1 inches: 2010 December 10 - 11 (Final "Domebuster")
6.  16.8 inches: 1940 November 11 - 13  (Armistice Day)
7.  16.7 inches: 1985 March 3 - 4
7.  16.7 inches: 1940 March 11 - 14 (tie)
9.  16.5 inches: 1982 December 27 - 28
10. 16.0 inches: 1917 January 20 - 21
10. 16.0 inches: 1999 March 8 - 9 (tie)
12. 15.8 inches: 2018 April 13-16 (Thunder Blizzard)
13. 15.3 inches: 1886 November 16-18
14. 15.1 inches: 2023 January 2-5 (Big Mess)
15. 14.7 inches: 1985 March 31
16. 14.3 inches: 1991 November 29 - 30 (Black Friday)
17. 14.1 inches: 1952 March 22 -23
17. 14.1 inches: 1983 November 27 - December 1 (tie)
19. 14.0 inches: 1899 March 10-12
20. 13.8 inches: 2011 February 20-21
21. 13.6 inches: 1966 March 22-23
21. 13.6 inches: 1983 April 14 (tie)
23. 13.1 inches: 1983 December 13-15
24. 13.0 inches: 1907 April 27-28

 

[gunny23]

Just walked down to the Potomac in Sterling. Peepers are out

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[nj2va]

6 hours ago, LP08 said:

Any chance @nj2va can turn on some snow in McHenry this weekend?  Do what you have to do!

I'll try!  Your best bet is to go to Wisp Friday night as they'll likely have the snow guns on with the forecasted temps.  If you're staying in a house on the top of Wisp, you'll probably benefit from some residual snow blowing that way from the snow guns.  

[WxUSAF]

Moon, Venus, and Jupiter putting on quite the show in the western sky

[Kay]

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Moon, Venus, and Jupiter putting on quite the show in the western sky

Oh my...

[nw baltimore wx]

Happy Fat Tuesday! I’m enjoying a sazerac to celebrate!

[Jebman]

Black River Falls, WI will get about 20 inches of wind-blown snow thru late Thursday, while the Sierra may pile up 3-5 MORE feet of snow as the Pacific Storm Conveyor gets going again! Its gonna be so fun watching the Palisades Tahoe webcams for the next 7-12 days! It's already blowin' around some on that 8200' platform!!!!!

https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams

[BristowWx]

13 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Black River Falls, WI will get about 20 inches of wind-blown snow thru late Thursday, while the Sierra may pile up 3-5 MORE feet of snow as the Pacific Storm Conveyor gets going again! Its gonna be so fun watching the Palisades Tahoe webcams for the next 7-12 days! It's already blowin' around some on that 8200' platform!!!!!

https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams

Bad year Jebman…grass is growing and the bugs are coming alive.  It’s a kick in the snowballs

[Jebman]

46 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Bad year Jebman…grass is growing and the bugs are coming alive.  It’s a kick in the snowballs

We are MUCH warmer than usual down here too, It's been an unprecedented kick hard in the balls dragging 800lb oak branches in the rapidly deepening grass. This is going to be a hellish summer down here. This is how the record summers start down here: Windy as heck, way above normal and very DRY. OH WAIT! Its still February lmao.

North TX hit 87 today. Tomorrow may be even warmer lol, normal high is 64.

Lawn mower wont start. Oh well I can just pick grass stalks in bunches with my bare hands, it'll only take me til August lol

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Jebman said:

We are MUCH warmer than usual down here too, It's been an unprecedented kick hard in the balls dragging 800lb oak branches in the rapidly deepening grass. This is going to be a hellish summer down here. This is how the record summers start down here: Windy as heck, way above normal and very DRY. OH WAIT! Its still February lmao.

We will be a +35 on Thursday…imagine that in the summer…130…that’s where we are headed 

[Jebman]

I do understand it has been a horrifically bad winter in the East, but if you still want to see snow, check out the 2nd vid from the top, pretty good snows as of 8.39pm CST.

https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams

I am going to be wasting a lot of good time watching this stuff lol

[Solution Man]

10 minutes ago, Jebman said:

I do understand it has been a horrifically bad winter in the East, but if you still want to see snow, check out the 2nd vid from the top, pretty good snows as of 8.39pm CST.

https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams

I am going to be wasting a lot of good time watching this stuff lol

It will look like that for us when mosquitoes start rolling in a few weeks

[Jebman]

11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We will be a +35 on Thursday…imagine that in the summer…130…that’s where we are headed 

I saw that, I still keep weather records of Dale City and Woodbridge, VA, and Oxon Hill MD where MGM National Harbor is. Love that place! You guys will be pushing about 35 to 38 degrees above normal Thursday.

[Jebman]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

It will look like that for us when mosquitoes start rolling in a few weeks

I got a chuckle out of that one lol

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Jebman said:

I got a chuckle out of that one lol

Been a brutal winter my friend, I think Tucson has more snow than we do this winter 

[Jebman]

Don't look now but there is a possibility of a three stream storm in early March smashing the eastern seaboard. Larry Cosgrove hints at this. Winter is NOT done yet with the Mid Atlantic. The Jebman Blizzard of March 2023 will be long remembered and those memories will be fond ones, of torrential wind driven snows. THIS STORM WILL NOT BECOME A DREADED CUTTER.

This storm is the last-minute, Hail Mary Mid Atlantic MIRACLE!

[Rtd208]

This is the "its 10 days away" winter.

[H2O]

There are parts of LA that now have a blizzard warning. Higher elevations but still. 
 

This winter absolutely sucks ass

[Terpeast]

14 minutes ago, H2O said:

There are parts of LA that now have a blizzard warning. Higher elevations but still. 
 

This winter absolutely sucks ass

Did you read the LA office AFD? Feels like something out of a movie

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Did you read the LA office AFD? Feels like something out of a movie

Link or it didn't happen

Eta: nevermind, found it. Wow, I'm moving out to Cali which is obviously the new snow capital of the US:

"The precipitation totals for the majority of the south Santa Barbara coast, Ventura, and Los Angeles coasts/valleys will be in the 2-4 inch category. Low snow levels will mean that this could be the largest amount of 24-48 hour snowfall seen in decades (likely rivaling the 1989 storm) for our Ventura and Los Angeles County mountains. Depending on the snow-line, rainfall in the foothills will be from 4-6 inches, but the mountains above 4000 ft could see upwards of 2-5 FEET of snow with isolated amounts to 7 feet at higher elevations. Snowfall of this rate and amount could lead to damage to structures and trees with an immense threat of avalanches, especially in the eastern San Gabriel Mountains by Saturday."

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Link or it didn't happen

Eta: nevermind, found it. Wow, I'm moving out to Cali which is obviously the new snow capital of the US:

"The precipitation totals for the majority of the south Santa Barbara coast, Ventura, and Los Angeles coasts/valleys will be in the 2-4 inch category. Low snow levels will mean that this could be the largest amount of 24-48 hour snowfall seen in decades (likely rivaling the 1989 storm) for our Ventura and Los Angeles County mountains. Depending on the snow-line, rainfall in the foothills will be from 4-6 inches, but the mountains above 4000 ft could see upwards of 2-5 FEET of snow with isolated amounts to 7 feet at higher elevations. Snowfall of this rate and amount could lead to damage to structures and trees with an immense threat of avalanches, especially in the eastern San Gabriel Mountains by Saturday."

I guess the west has a different “base state “ than the east this year.

[09-10 analogy]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Did you read the LA office AFD? Feels like something out of a movie

Nice start to the beginning: "All systems go for a major and unusual storm."

Fun times on the Grapevine.

And this: "Cyclonic spin would allow for waterspout 
activity over the ocean with brief small tornadoes near the coast."

Tornadoes to the west of me, blizzards to the east, here I am/Stuck in the middle with you.

Cue Mr. Blonde. 

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Link or it didn't happen

Eta: nevermind, found it. Wow, I'm moving out to Cali which is obviously the new snow capital of the US:

"The precipitation totals for the majority of the south Santa Barbara coast, Ventura, and Los Angeles coasts/valleys will be in the 2-4 inch category. Low snow levels will mean that this could be the largest amount of 24-48 hour snowfall seen in decades (likely rivaling the 1989 storm) for our Ventura and Los Angeles County mountains. Depending on the snow-line, rainfall in the foothills will be from 4-6 inches, but the mountains above 4000 ft could see upwards of 2-5 FEET of snow with isolated amounts to 7 feet at higher elevations. Snowfall of this rate and amount could lead to damage to structures and trees with an immense threat of avalanches, especially in the eastern San Gabriel Mountains by Saturday."