February Banter 2023

[Stormfly]

23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ah I see...so I'm completely incapable of saying anything insightful, smh But ya know, this shows respect is earned. I won't be better in the Eyes of many on here until I sustain my change in posting habits over time.

Then again...I shouldn't care what random people think either. Can't please everybody.

There's always chat.openai.com

[Maestrobjwa]

20 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

There's always chat.openai.com

I don't know...might not be enough lols  

But that technology is really something...no wonder professors and others are worried about it! I mean it's up there passing law exams for crying out loud, lol

[Jebman]

AI is changing blogging too. Content writers will be outdated right out of business.

[CAPE]

A couple photos from Terrapin yesterday. Bit of ice from the brief cold shot. Won't be seeing this again anytime soon as it looks now.

[Amped]

If I drank every time I heard an on air weather personality say "It's going to feel more like spring" this winter, I'd have had enough alcohol to kill herd of elephants.

[Paleocene]

Nice spring morning today eh

[North Balti Zen]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Nice spring morning today eh

It's fantastic. Birds were delighted at my feeders.  Course, it will be this temp in early May too, I suspect, when winter finally arrives. 

[psuhoffman]

On 2/5/2023 at 5:46 AM, CAPE said:

After our typical crappy/underperforming winters, most are mentally in a place to move on and that ideally means warmer and nicer weather. That is rarely how it goes in reality though. I thought last Spring and the transition into early Summer was about as good as it gets. Most of the time it shifts pretty quickly from chilly/damp miserable to warm and humid grossness.

I get the sentiment that once you give up on winter it would be nice if we simply jump straight to 70 degree sunny weather every day but that simply isn't how it works.  Almost EVERY year we will get a chilly period somewhere in early spring and EVERY time the "this is the worst thing ever" posts come out.  And now people are stressing about just the thought of it before its even a reality!  That's too much drama for me.  

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah I get that. My comment was more of a reflection of the forum’s overall mood than the models itself, though. Sometimes I try to make light of the situation because… it’s just weather. 

And this time at my expense of course...for no reason whatsoever...Tryin' do better but people keep throwin' my misdeeds in my face even when I do something right...

@psuhoffman This is why I overreacted to Ji a while ago--on here I always gotta be on the defensive because of stuff like this.

[TowsonTownT]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I get the sentiment that once you give up on winter it would be nice if we simply jump straight to 70 degree sunny weather every day but that simply isn't how it works.  Almost EVERY year we will get a chilly period somewhere in early spring and EVERY time the "this is the worst thing ever" posts come out.  And now people are stressing about just the thought of it before its even a reality!  That's too much drama for me.  

This is my fourth year in the area, and while not a large sample, I have found Fall here to be (much) warmer than I expected and Spring to be cooler than I expected. I have to remind myself all through April not to plant the tomatoes that are suspiciously well stocked at the big box stores.

[mattie g]

My co-Team Rep and I have started really discussing the upcoming NVSL summer swim season. It seems so far away, yet it's only next month we find out which division we'll be in. Pool registration starts around the same time, so we have to be ready with our own registration at that point. Once the middle of March hits and we start getting registrations, things ramp up pretty damn quickly!

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And this time at my expense of course...for no reason whatsoever...Tryin' do better but people keep throwin' my misdeeds in my face even when I do something right...

@psuhoffman This is why I overreacted to Ji a while ago--on here I always gotta be on the defensive because of stuff like this.

Or….just don’t react to it.  If you improve over time it will stop. Responding just feeds into it. 

[nj2va]

47 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Drove the X to Annapolis today to go to the Dr.   As I drove down the street I saw that the red maples that get a lot of sun are already blooming...no joke.  It's over.  

Side question - you take your ex to the doctor? 

[IronTy]

15 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Side question - you take your ex to the doctor? 

Lol as long as my (doesn't exist) ex can do 0-60 in 2.7sec then yes, you're right.  

[Rvarookie]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I get the sentiment that once you give up on winter it would be nice if we simply jump straight to 70 degree sunny weather every day but that simply isn't how it works.  Almost EVERY year we will get a chilly period somewhere in early spring and EVERY time the "this is the worst thing ever" posts come out.  And now people are stressing about just the thought of it before its even a reality!  That's too much drama for me.  

I don’t know man. Last spring felt pretty solid. I don’t expect 70s everyday but I don’t need 40s and rain especially on spring break. Ill takes 50s and 60s just without the damn wind that we do so well with 

[Its a Breeze]

4 hours ago, TowsonTownT said:

This is my fourth year in the area, and while not a large sample, I have found Fall here to be (much) warmer than I expected and Spring to be cooler than I expected. I have to remind myself all through April not to plant the tomatoes that are suspiciously well stocked at the big box stores.

4 years is large enough. You are absolutely correct. There are of course exceptions, but we don't get consistently warm until May. While we remain consistently warm (or at least nice) basically to early November.

Still like Spring more though. Man...that first real warm day, before the humidity creeps in, everything's blooming and bright....perfect.

[NorthArlington101]

4 hours ago, mattie g said:

My co-Team Rep and I have started really discussing the upcoming NVSL summer swim season. It seems so far away, yet it's only next month we find out which division we'll be in. Pool registration starts around the same time, so we have to be ready with our own registration at that point. Once the middle of March hits and we start getting registrations, things ramp up pretty damn quickly!

Now that I have a real job I fear I won't be swim coaching as much this summer, so I'll have to live vicariously through the NVSL antics that get shared on this board as well as @SnowenOutTherekeeping me up-to-date on the CSL. Gonna be an adjustment not having that be the main part of my summer.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

18 hours ago, anotherman said:

Haha, that scene was hilarious!  "Planes, Trains, and Automobiles" is a great film...a Thanksgiving movie that leads you into the Holiday season!  It also has one of the most epic movie rants ever by Steve Martin, up there with Chevy Chase in "National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation" when he gets the "jelly of the month club" bonus!

 

Now that I think of it, this is essentially how this entire winter has felt!! 

(ETA:  If Steve Martin were a snow weenie talking about this winter, he might be there at the car rental desk saying "I want a f*cking snowstorm sometime during this f*cking miserable winter, I don't f*cking care how!"  The lady at the desk would ask, "Do you have any clown maps that show this?"  Steve Martin:  "I f*cking threw them away when they f*cking showed me nothing!"  Lady at counter:  "Oh, no...you're F*CKED!")

 

[Rvarookie]

4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And this time at my expense of course...for no reason whatsoever...Tryin' do better but people keep throwin' my misdeeds in my face even when I do something right...

@psuhoffman This is why I overreacted to Ji a while ago--on here I always gotta be on the defensive because of stuff like this.

Hey man. Least you making progress. You should consider obsessing over 50s and wind. You would find much more enjoyment chasing that shit  

[mappy]

10 hours ago, TowsonTownT said:

This is my fourth year in the area, and while not a large sample, I have found Fall here to be (much) warmer than I expected and Spring to be cooler than I expected. I have to remind myself all through April not to plant the tomatoes that are suspiciously well stocked at the big box stores.

I know I’m further north in the county than you but I always wait until Mother’s Day to plant. Learned the hard way my first spring here (granted that was coming off the 2013/204 winter where I had 70” of snow, including in April). 

[psuhoffman]

36 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I think your analysis is very poor. I have been posting for days about how I thought the Sat period was the best chance of the season thus far for a wintry event along the urban corridor. I also mentioned repeatedly the obvious reasons why it's a low likelihood scenario. Nevertheless, a modeled high amplitude trof, favorably aligned does not come around very often.

The fact that 5 of the major mid range models - EC, GFS, CMC, ICON, and UK have all at various cycles over the past 2 days indicated wintry precip. for part of the urban corridor demonstrates that it's a plausible outcome. This isn't fantasy land. If they show it happening, it probably could. My efforts to stir up discussion for a plausible, though unlikely event, was met with indifference and disregard. I'm sorry for you that you didn't see any mid-range potential. But it was and is there. And this is exactly the kind of low expectation event that's fun to track.

Ok so you don't even disagree its a low probability threat which is all anyone here was saying and why we're not blowing up the thread and going stupid crazy.  But you weren't getting the attention you wanted so you decided to launch an unwarranted attack on @stormtracker.  Ya I think I get it. 

24 minutes ago, eduggs said:

There is pervasive group think, namely that recognition of "patterns" is how you identify snowstorms. Yes there is a weak correlation between certain statistical climate indices and regional weather. But if you get hung up on the hunt for the perfect pattern, you'll miss what's staring you right in the face. Like potentially this weekend.

The entire NE forum also missed their "snowy" period coming last month because they too were hung up on all the wrong things.

I'm not here for personal attacks. I want to encourage people to avoid the traps and biases that make bad forecasters. Hopefully also stir up some interesting discussion and learn something.

We haven't missed anything.  IT HASNT SNOWED AT ALL...  And no one has missed this threat.  Its been talked about extensively.  I made a post about it earlier today and why I don't think its likely.  Others have posted on it.  We just aren't getting excited about a long range low probability threat.  If it gets inside 100 hours and starts to show up on most guidance (at the same damn time) then things will get active in here, but why are you so bent about the fact were not freaking out over an op gfs run at long range? 

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok so you don't even disagree its a low probability threat which is all anyone here was saying and why we're not blowing up the thread and going stupid crazy.  But you weren't getting the attention you wanted so you decided to launch an unwarranted attack on @stormtracker.  Ya I think I get it. 

We haven't missed anything.  IT HASNT SNOWED AT ALL...  And no one has missed this threat.  Its been talked about extensively.  I made a post about it earlier today and why I don't think its likely.  Others have posted on it.  We just aren't getting excited about a long range low probability threat.  If it gets inside 100 hours and starts to show up on most guidance (at the same damn time) then things will get active in here, but why are you so bent about the fact were not freaking out over an op gfs run at long range? 

You are the one making personal attacks. I did not know you ruled this subforum. Had I known it would hurt your feelings if somebody else provided counter analysis, I might have had second thoughts. My point was then and remains now that some people don't seem to be doing a good job at sussing out what a wintry threat actually looks like. If you want to wait until the short range models are all "showing blue" before raising half an eyebrow, then you might be waiting a long time.

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So you took our your frustrations with me on him? 

Why does my analysis affect your ability to "track this for fun"?

And let me make this VERY CLEAR to everyone.  Everyday when I look at the latest guidance and analyze our prospects for snow, its new data and new analysis.  And so long as I think its too warm I am going to say that.  If I see a change and think we have a good chance I will say that too.  If you have a problem with the fact I am going to say the truth and not sugar coat it put me on ignore because I am not going to change the way I analyze or BS, blow smoke, or ignore something just because it bothers you to hear the truth. 

Something to consider:

What if we all were standing out in a cold, raw rain...and for whatever reason somebody felt the need to say "It's raining!" every 5 minutes...as if we didn't know that already? Lol I mean...if it was painfully obvious to everybody else, would it still be valuable to hear somebody say that every 5 mins? Sure, they'd be 100% correct that it's raining...but after awhile...would an already miserable crowd not be justified and saying "Yes, we know!"?

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, eduggs said:

You are the one making personal attacks. I did not know you ruled this subforum. Had I known it would hurt your feelings if somebody else provided counter analysis, I might have had second thoughts. My point was then and remains now that some people don't seem to be doing a good job at sussing out what a wintry threat actually looks like. If you want to wait until the short range models are all "showing blue" before raising half an eyebrow, then you might be waiting a long time.

Don’t get cute. You didn’t attack me. You attacked Stormtracker.  And defending him from your personal attack is not making personal attacks. Don’t try to pivot and make this about me now just because I’m an asshole and an easier target and you realize you can’t defend what you said to him.  

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Something to consider:

What if we all were standing out in a cold, raw rain...and for whatever reason somebody felt the need to say "It's raining!" every 5 minutes...as if we didn't know that already? Lol I mean...if it was painfully obvious to everybody else, would it still be valuable to hear somebody say that every 5 mins? Sure, they'd be 100% correct that it's raining...but after awhile...would an already miserable crowd not be justified and saying "Yes, we know!"?

We aren’t standing in the rain. We’re looking at a screen probably from comfortable warm confines in most cases. And tell me, how do we analyze a snow threat without talking about temperatures?  Really tell me how you want me to do that?  

[pazzo83]

26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Something to consider:

What if we all were standing out in a cold, raw rain...and for whatever reason somebody felt the need to say "It's raining!" every 5 minutes...as if we didn't know that already? Lol I mean...if it was painfully obvious to everybody else, would it still be valuable to hear somebody say that every 5 mins? Sure, they'd be 100% correct that it's raining...but after awhile...would an already miserable crowd not be justified and saying "Yes, we know!"?

That's not at all analogous to what we are dealing with.  We are getting insightful analysis of the short & medium term - it's just nearly uniformly bad if you want snow.  

[eduggs]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t get cute. You didn’t attack me. You attacked Stormtracker.  And defending him from your personal attack is not making personal attacks. Don’t try to pivot and make this about me now just because I’m an asshole and an easier target and you realize you can’t defend what you said to him.  

This is what I said in response to Stormtracker poo-pooing the 18z GFS and asserting that 0z would be totally different. Hardly a harsh personal attack:

I've made my pessimism clear regarding the Sat system, particularly for the DC - NYC corridor. However, I think you may have lost your ability to interpret model charts. I guess that's what a string of ratters does to a person, capped off by incessant Spring. 

This is a legitimate snow threat for someone along the east coast, and it's comfortably inside mid-range. There's a very good chance this will be the final legitimate wintry threat of the season for some on here. Agreed that 18z may have been the high point of the model cycles. But if you can't see the potential in a full-continent longwave trof with sub 540dm heights and a vortmax in GA, then I don't think you're cut out for this.

 

I haven't had any snow this winter either. Barely anything in 2 years. It's makes us reflexively pessimistic and unable to recognize a snow threat when it materializes. Doesn't mean we're dumb... just gun shy.

And yes, I genuinely believe that if you can't get a little excited to watch the evolution of a deep modeled trof with a base in the Gulf of Mexico in February, then you're not cut out for winter weather tracking in the mid-Atl.

I think you should rethink some of your harsh critiques of me and focus on weather forecasting or whatever else you are interested in.

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The urban corridor regions are close together with overlapping climo and boundaries. Many of us visit neighboring forums for different perspectives and information. Do you think that is a factually or emotionally based statement on your part?  It certainly seems unjustified. Interesting that you feel you know better than me my intentions.

If I feel the prevailing narrative is not fully reflecting the situation, I'm going to say so. I shouldn't be the one to have to do it. But unfortunately when things are slow, the board loses the full range of opinions, a few voices come to dominate, and group think tends to take hold.

Your intent is irrelevant he correctly described your actions.
 

No one is attacking you for posting your analysis and opinions about the weather. They’re attacking you for taking shots at others while doing it. Why was attacking storm tracker necessary to what you were trying to say?  You couldn’t just give your opinion of the setup?  
 

You already said what you were doing. You were frustrated no one shared your opinion so you started launching attacks. You said so in your own post. Now you’re trying to play the misunderstood victim. You’re understood perfectly. 

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

This is what I said in response to Stormtracker poo-pooing the 18z GFS and asserting that 0z would be totally different. Hardly a harsh personal attack:

I've made my pessimism clear regarding the Sat system, particularly for the DC - NYC corridor. However, I think you may have lost your ability to interpret model charts. I guess that's what a string of ratters does to a person, capped off by incessant Spring. 

This is a legitimate snow threat for someone along the east coast, and it's comfortably inside mid-range. There's a very good chance this will be the final legitimate wintry threat of the season for some on here. Agreed that 18z may have been the high point of the model cycles. But if you can't see the potential in a full-continent longwave trof with sub 540dm heights and a vortmax in GA, then I don't think you're cut out for this.

 

I haven't had any snow this winter either. Barely anything in 2 years. It's makes us reflexively pessimistic and unable to recognize a snow threat when it materializes. Doesn't mean we're dumb... just gun shy.

And yes, I genuinely believe that if you can't get a little excited to watch the evolution of a deep modeled trof with a base in the Gulf of Mexico in February, then you're not cut out for winter weather tracking in the mid-Atl.

I think you should rethink some of your harsh critiques of me and focus on whether forecasting or whatever else you are interested in.

The bolded part is the attack and why was that necessary?  How did that add anything to your point?  
 

No one is missing this. We see it. I think it’s unlikely. I don’t think it’s worth getting excited over yet. I’m keeping my eye on it. That’s it. Why do you care what I or anyone else thinks is worth getting excited?   You can analyze it and post about it all you want. How do these attacks on everyone else help at all?  
 

Oh wait you already told us. No one way paying attention so you started trolling to get people talking. So then don’t complain when you get called out for it. You got what you wanted. 

[eduggs]

PSU, poor job all around. I encourage you to read the words that I actually write instead of resorting to snarky, strawman arguments. I don't think this is the best version of you. But I'm confident nobody wants to read any more of this back and forth. Let's just root for snow. 

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, eduggs said:

PSU, poor job all around. I encourage you to read the words that I actually write instead of resorting to snarky, strawman arguments. I don't think this is the best version of you. But I'm confident nobody wants to read any more of this back and forth. Let's just root for snow. 

No one took issue with you for your dissent or your analysis.  They took issue with your unnecessary attacks which you still keep deflecting away from. 
 

So read these words. Fuck off