February Banter 2023

[George BM]

Forecast Discussion

April 27, 2023 4:25PM EDT

Hard Freeze Warning in effect from 10PM EDT Thursday, April 27, 2023 until midday Saturday, April 29, 2023

For far northern and western areas- Wind Chill Advisory in effect from 2AM EDT Friday, April 28, 2023 until 10AM EDT Friday, April 28, 2023

This evening through Friday:

An arctic front will pass through the region as we go through the evening w/ a line of heavy gusty showers and an embedded thunderstorm along it. These may be accompanied by 30-40 mph wind gusts and, given the cooling air aloft, a non-zero chance of small hail. Once the front has blown through to our southeast by the mid/late evening hours temps will fall rapidly through the 40s and 30s and fall below freezing… perhaps even into the upper 20s by midnight. Any remaining wet spots on surfaces outdoors will freeze overnight. Temps will continue to fall through the predawn hours on stiff NW winds gusting between 30 and 40mph. By dawn on Friday morning w/ 850mb temps dropping to around -18 to -20C, temperatures will range from near 20F in southern MD and towards central VA, to the mid/upper teens in the Greater Metropolitan area, to the lower teens in the coldest far NW suburbs. With the strong NW winds in place wind chills will range from the mid-single digits in central VA/southern MD to around zero in the Greater Metropolitan area to around 5 to 10F below zero in the far NW suburbs where the Wind Chill Advisory is in effect. Being that it’s the end of April, the surface waters of the Great Lakes have warmed to around 7-8C+. So scattered lake-effect flurries and snow showers can be expected across the region through the morning.

By midday a secondary disturbance approaches from the NW with even colder air aloft. With very steep lapse rates from the surface up to around the 500mb level intense snow squalls, perhaps even w/ a lightning strike or two, will transverse the area bringing strong gusty winds and brief whiteout conditions. Some spots may receive a quick coating to an inch of snow w/ slick roadways. Temps will generally range from the upper 20s to lower 30s by the early afternoon but will probably drop into the middle 20s with the snow squalls.

Friday night/Saturday morning:

Snow showers and squalls will slowly taper off through the night as temps fall into the teens areawide. Winds will diminish from gusty during the evening to breezy overnight. By dawn on Saturday temps will range from around 10F in far NW suburbs to the upper teens towards central VA/southern MD before rising above freezing into the mid to upper 30s during the afternoon with winds continuing to diminish.

 

 

Three Days Later

Forecast Discussion

April 30, 2023 3:33PM EDT

Blizzard Warning in effect from midnight EDT Monday, May 1, 2023 until 6AM EDT Tuesday, May 2, 2023.

Through tonight:

With the record breaking cold airmass that has been in place over our region for the past couple of days temperatures this afternoon have only risen to within a few degrees on either side of 40F under an increasingly overcast sky. Snow will move into southwestern areas through the early evening hours… perhaps starting as a wintry mix of rain/snow/pellets before dynamic cooling turns precip into all snow. Precipitation will move into the immediate area by sunset with any mixed precip changing to snow within a few hours of the onset. This is associated with a strong shortwave trough moving ESE towards the southern Mid-Atlantic coast. As said shortwave approaches the coastline it will take on a negative tilt allowing a surface low to rapidly intensify over southern VA. This surface low is expected to become a deep sub-980mb low over southeastern MD by around midday tomorrow. Through the rest of the evening snow will overspread the rest of the forecast area and pick up in intensity as winds start increasing out of the NE. Snowfall will become heavy by the overnight hours with winds gusting to around 40 mph or so leading to visibilities dropping to below a quarter mile hence the blizzard warning. The snow will be wet with snow to water ratios around 6-8:1. The heavy wet snow combined with the strong winds will lead to scattered power outages through the predawn hours.

Monday through Monday night:

The worst part of the storm will occur between dawn and dusk on Monday as the surface low stalls and deepens to the upper 970s in millibars. Liquid precip rates may exceed half an inch per hour which would translate to snowfall rates of 3-4”+ per hour. This coupled with winds gusting over 50mph trough the entire day will lead to catastrophic tree damage and widespread power outages. Visibilities will drop to below 1/16 of a mile (roughly 300ft) at times throughout the day. Travel is… you know what just don’t travel tomorrow. Trees will be down in roadways and covered by fresh snow. You will get stuck… for a long time. This is a once in a lifetime-type blizzard.

As we go into the evening hours the snow will slowly start decreasing in intensity and eventually taper off from west to east by the predawn hours of Tuesday.

After all is said and done snowfall totals of 30 to 42 inches with locally higher amounts of up to 4 feet, especially in the mountains can be expected. Drifts will, of course, be much higher given the high winds throughout the duration of this event.

One unique consequence of this event occurring at the start of May is that trees, especially following the above normal temps experienced before this arctic blast, are near if not already at full leafout outside of the mountains. A vast majority of deciduous trees will not make it beyond this storm. With how heavy and wet the snow will be there may be many roof, and even building, collapses. This will be very costly storm for the region. You should have batteries for radios along with water and non-perishable foods for at least the next few days. Good luck to all.

 

Forecaster Wannabe: George BM

[Jebman]

5 hours ago, George BM said:

Forecast Discussion

April 27, 2023 4:25PM EDT

Hard Freeze Warning in effect from 10PM EDT Thursday, April 27, 2023 until midday Saturday, April 29, 2023

For far northern and western areas- Wind Chill Advisory in effect from 2AM EDT Friday, April 28, 2023 until 10AM EDT Friday, April 28, 2023

This evening through Friday:

An arctic front will pass through the region as we go through the evening w/ a line of heavy gusty showers and an embedded thunderstorm along it. These may be accompanied by 30-40 mph wind gusts and, given the cooling air aloft, a non-zero chance of small hail. Once the front has blown through to our southeast by the mid/late evening hours temps will fall rapidly through the 40s and 30s and fall below freezing… perhaps even into the upper 20s by midnight. Any remaining wet spots on surfaces outdoors will freeze overnight. Temps will continue to fall through the predawn hours on stiff NW winds gusting between 30 and 40mph. By dawn on Friday morning w/ 850mb temps dropping to around -18 to -20C, temperatures will range from near 20F in southern MD and towards central VA, to the mid/upper teens in the Greater Metropolitan area, to the lower teens in the coldest far NW suburbs. With the strong NW winds in place wind chills will range from the mid-single digits in central VA/southern MD to around zero in the Greater Metropolitan area to around 5 to 10F below zero in the far NW suburbs where the Wind Chill Advisory is in effect. Being that it’s the end of April, the surface waters of the Great Lakes have warmed to around 7-8C+. So scattered lake-effect flurries and snow showers can be expected across the region through the morning.

By midday a secondary disturbance approaches from the NW with even colder air aloft. With very steep lapse rates from the surface up to around the 500mb level intense snow squalls, perhaps even w/ a lightning strike or two, will transverse the area bringing strong gusty winds and brief whiteout conditions. Some spots may receive a quick coating to an inch of snow w/ slick roadways. Temps will generally range from the upper 20s to lower 30s by the early afternoon but will probably drop into the middle 20s with the snow squalls.

Friday night/Saturday morning:

Snow showers and squalls will slowly taper off through the night as temps fall into the teens areawide. Winds will diminish from gusty during the evening to breezy overnight. By dawn on Saturday temps will range from around 10F in far NW suburbs to the upper teens towards central VA/southern MD before rising above freezing into the mid to upper 30s during the afternoon with winds continuing to diminish.

 

 

Three Days Later

Forecast Discussion

April 30, 2023 3:33PM EDT

Blizzard Warning in effect from midnight EDT Monday, May 1, 2023 until 6AM EDT Tuesday, May 2, 2023.

Through tonight:

With the record breaking cold airmass that has been in place over our region for the past couple of days temperatures this afternoon have only risen to within a few degrees on either side of 40F under an increasingly overcast sky. Snow will move into southwestern areas through the early evening hours… perhaps starting as a wintry mix of rain/snow/pellets before dynamic cooling turns precip into all snow. Precipitation will move into the immediate area by sunset with any mixed precip changing to snow within a few hours of the onset. This is associated with a strong shortwave trough moving ESE towards the southern Mid-Atlantic coast. As said shortwave approaches the coastline it will take on a negative tilt allowing a surface low to rapidly intensify over southern VA. This surface low is expected to become a deep sub-980mb low over southeastern MD by around midday tomorrow. Through the rest of the evening snow will overspread the rest of the forecast area and pick up in intensity as winds start increasing out of the NE. Snowfall will become heavy by the overnight hours with winds gusting to around 40 mph or so leading to visibilities dropping to below a quarter mile hence the blizzard warning. The snow will be wet with snow to water ratios around 6-8:1. The heavy wet snow combined with the strong winds will lead to scattered power outages through the predawn hours.

Monday through Monday night:

The worst part of the storm will occur between dawn and dusk on Monday as the surface low stalls and deepens to the upper 970s in millibars. Liquid precip rates may exceed half an inch per hour which would translate to snowfall rates of 3-4”+ per hour. This coupled with winds gusting over 50mph trough the entire day will lead to catastrophic tree damage and widespread power outages. Visibilities will drop to below 1/16 of a mile (roughly 300ft) at times throughout the day. Travel is… you know what just don’t travel tomorrow. Trees will be down in roadways and covered by fresh snow. You will get stuck… for a long time. This is a once in a lifetime-type blizzard.

As we go into the evening hours the snow will slowly start decreasing in intensity and eventually taper off from west to east by the predawn hours of Tuesday.

After all is said and done snowfall totals of 30 to 42 inches with locally higher amounts of up to 4 feet, especially in the mountains can be expected. Drifts will, of course, be much higher given the high winds throughout the duration of this event.

One unique consequence of this event occurring at the start of May is that trees, especially following the above normal temps experienced before this arctic blast, are near if not already at full leafout outside of the mountains. A vast majority of deciduous trees will not make it beyond this storm. With how heavy and wet the snow will be there may be many roof, and even building, collapses. This will be very costly storm for the region. You should have batteries for radios along with water and non-perishable foods for at least the next few days. Good luck to all.

 

Professional Forecaster: George BM

You're NO wannabe. That's a damned good forecast!

Meanwhile, in other news, South Central Texas is 29 degrees with north winds bringing the wind chill down to 12 degrees. Freezing rain has become moderate and ice accretion is getting ridiculous. Radar has no discernible back edge and ice is piling up, even on road surfaces that previously were only wet. With all of the freezing rain on the way, this is going to be BAD as fook by rush hour Wed morning.

 

 

 

I am going to write up my very own end days blizzard AFD. It's going to be a total catastrophe for the entire Mid Atlantic.

[Jebman]

Freezing rain continues, no end in sight. I have never seen THIS MUCH FOOKIN ICE since I moved down here in August 2018. This is bad. The outdoor unit, the AC/Heating unit located outside, is making weird noise, because it is likely that the metal fan is getting more and more ice on it. This is now a DESTRUCTIVE ICE STORM, carrying very real potential for catastrophe here in south central Texas. Temp is 29, north winds are breezy with gusts to 27mph and wind chills into the lower teens and possibly into the single numbers.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Jebman said:

Freezing rain continues, no end in sight. I have never seen THIS MUCH FOOKIN ICE since I moved down here in August 2018. This is bad. The outdoor unit, the AC/Heating unit located outside, is making weird noise, because it is likely that the metal fan is getting more and more ice on it. This is now a DESTRUCTIVE ICE STORM, carrying very real potential for catastrophe here in south central Texas. Temp is 29, north winds are breezy with gusts to 27mph and wind chills into the lower teens and possibly into the single numbers.

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRspgjSp/

[snowfan]

This snippet from this mornings MWN discussion is impressive.

As far as wind chill values, if we go with a milder and less gusty setup of 33F below and winds of 95 mph, summits will have values around 87F below. If we go with a colder, windy setup of 40F below and 110 mph, summits will have values around 101F below. Either way, this means frostbite could start to develop on exposed skin in as little as 5 minutes or, at the extreme end, less than 1 minute. With this in mind, make sure to have someone check for any exposed skin or use a mirror or selfie cam to look for any gaps or holes in clothing, especially around where gear meets like goggles around balaclavas or jackets with pants or gloves with coats. It is far easier to maintain heat than it is to regenerate it. Bear in mind that the cold ambient air temperatures will affect anything with batteries shortening their available power or possibly not powering items on at all. Fuels, like those with camp stoves, may struggle or not operate as their pressurization alters or the fuel gels or freezes. Motorized vehicles you left at trailheads could see their batteries affected and their fuels and fluids could also gel or freeze. 

[mappy]

ooooof. Only two days below normal. 

 

[MN Transplant]

5 hours ago, Jebman said:

Freezing rain continues, no end in sight. I have never seen THIS MUCH FOOKIN ICE since I moved down here in August 2018. This is bad. The outdoor unit, the AC/Heating unit located outside, is making weird noise, because it is likely that the metal fan is getting more and more ice on it. This is now a DESTRUCTIVE ICE STORM, carrying very real potential for catastrophe here in south central Texas. Temp is 29, north winds are breezy with gusts to 27mph and wind chills into the lower teens and possibly into the single numbers.

Stay safe Jebman

[Maestrobjwa]

Man I'm catchin' strays now when I'm trying to do better, lol I mean I didn't think my post was out of bounds for the LR thread and was completely fact-based. He said we were still in a mod nina but I wanted to confirm if the analysis of the current state was actually accurate...and that was it! And that would've helped discussion, no? And yet somehow...lol

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Stay safe Jebman

I'm sure the power grid will continue working flawlessly, as it always does in Texas.

[midatlanticweather]

We all become manbabies when things breakdown! I am guilty as charged. I am going to avoid the forum until.... what the heck am I saying?! I will always visit quickly to see if there is something worth watching! LOL! But the meltdowns and bickering are just evidence of the condition! 

 

[North Balti Zen]

A co-worker who is working at home today said they were interrupted by sound of their neighbor having their lawn mowed. Which...wow. It has been warm but it hasn't been THAT warm.

[87storms]

You know it's been a winter when we get hyped over a half inch of snow that falls overnight, and then spend most of the day trying to figure out what next winter's ENSO state will be.

I'm only kidding...but not really.

[Ralph Wiggum]

So when's the next window for another wintry wx opportunity? I'm seeing around Feb 13-17 but my spidey senses may be off.

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

I'm sure the power grid will continue working flawlessly, as it always does in Texas.

If California got ice storms, it would make that state even a worse place to live. They can’t keep the power on during sunny weather. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Eagles only favored by -1.5. I don't know why they keep going under the radar, Hurt's was 17-1 as a starter. A lot of people who don't watch them, take the other side. 

Easy bets. I knew it all the way both times the Ravens won the Super bowl.. take your about 85% chance at sure money and bet the Eagles. lol (Hurt's could get hurt or it's 90%)

edit: can someone please approve my posts in weather section ENSO thread? 

[Stormfly]

5 hours ago, mattie g said:

I'm sure the power grid will continue working flawlessly, as it always does in Texas.

ERCOT is fine, outages pretty much track areas of worst ice accretion.

https://poweroutage.us/area/state/texas

[snowfan]

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I have no clue what to say to that "K" response. But moving on...

You’d be better off ignoring posters that are condescending to everyone that doesn’t step in line with their thoughts….and insists on trying to be the dominant presence on the board.

[North Balti Zen]

Road trip lol? 

(never wanted to experience that kind of wind chill myself...)

 

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Road trip lol? 

(never wanted to experience that kind of wind chill myself...)

 

Check out the text of the winter storm watch - 1” of snow and blizzard conditions. Pretty wild : 

WHAT...For the Winter Storm Watch, blizzard conditions possible.
  Total snow accumulations up to one inch possible. Winds could gust
  as high as 45 mph. For the Wind Chill Watch, dangerously cold wind
  chills possible. Wind chills as low as 65 below zero.

[snowfan]

Here’s the Friday forecast for Mt washington.

 

[Jebman]

Power still out, house temp about 47. Frz dz still falling, 32 degrees, ten big oak branches crashed down in past 12 hours. More frzra coming overnight, could see another quarter inch.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jebman]

Just took a measurement with a ruler. We have five-eighths of an inch of ice. Many huge oak branches have broken off. One damaged our front gate really bad.

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Eagles only favored by -1.5. I don't know why they keep going under the radar, Hurt's was 17-1 as a starter. A lot of people who don't watch them, take the other side. 

Easy bets. I knew it all the way both times the Ravens won the Super bowl.. take your about 85% chance at sure money and bet the Eagles. lol (Hurt's could get hurt or it's 90%)

edit: can someone please approve my posts in weather section ENSO thread? 

Jinxed asf

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Jebman said:

Just took a measurement with a ruler. We have five-eighths of an inch of ice. Many huge oak branches have broken off. One damaged our front gate really bad.

Wish you the best and continued safety. Please dont think about taking a Jebwalk in those conditions!

[Jebman]

31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wish you the best and continued safety. Please dont think about taking a Jebwalk in those conditions!

I have been staying put. Some of those overpasses are extremely  slippery 

[mappy]

Oy our LR thread 

[WinterWxLuvr]

10 minutes ago, mappy said:

Oy our LR thread 

No kidding

[H2O]

I wish I had timeout powers

[diatae]

It's an eye gouger.

[nw baltimore wx]

I usually read every post even if I've been away from the board for a lengthy time and there are five or six pages unread like this morning.  Not today.