Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread

[CAPE]

At this juncture why post a bunch of maps just for the hell of it? If there is nothing to specifically analyze, just leave it. We all know what we are dealing with.

[Weather Will]

Latest MJO forecast continues to go in a favorable direction into Phase 8. 

[CAPE]

This might be a case where a strong -NAO building westward actually hurts us by helping to pinch off a TPV lobe, dropping it southward out west. With the SPV weakened, TPVs are going to be migrating into the midlatitudes. Might have a better outcome with a weaker/east based -NAO here. If the Aleutian ridge wasn't stuck there it wouldn't be an issue. That remains the fundamental feature that has killed winter for the east.

 

[87storms]

This is why LR Op forecasts need to be taken with a grain of salt.  If you look at the 0z 2/19 run and compare it with 6z 2/21, the differences between modeled snow and nada are subtle:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2023021900&fh=162

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2023022106&fh=108

One model had more of a return flow, I guess, with higher PWATs and I suppose a better thermal gradient.  I'm not really sure, but at least for a setup that doesn't involve a well-defined mid-level vort, it's probably best not to get too excited over seeing blues this far out.

[Its a Breeze]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Winter is over

Literally. Meteorological Spring starts NEXT week. Not that Winter began in the first place....

Are there those still desiring on last gasp? Why at this point? Let this winter remain in the trash where it belongs.

 

It is late Feb. Late Feb has not been rocking. Can the March thread start? And it only be about potential warm temps?

[87storms]

11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

No intent to derail the thread here. Feel free to move if not appropriate.

 

87storms, there are a couple of issues with this:

1) After a three year Niña, we’re almost certainly going to a Niño or at worst warm neutral ENSO for the coming hurricane season. Activity is a lot more complicated than strictly ENSO, but warm ENSO should dramatically reduce Atlantic tropical activity.

2) Even after historically active seasons in terms of absolute activity and tracks in the western Atlantic, it hasn’t done much to temper the anomalously warm SSTs in this part of the basin. You need a wholesale and persistent atmospheric change to reduce those anomalies. 

 

Thanks, I'm probably thinking too much in terms of a Hugo or Fran (which, by the way, I don't want), but not really sure if a strong hurricane just spinning off the SE coast for 2 weeks in October would even have an impact long enough to help.  A large scale pattern change makes more sense.  We really are paying for 2013-2016 lol.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Latest MJO forecast continues to go in a favorable direction into Phase 8. 

Compare these to the maps that you were posting just last week. Do you not realize that these maps are notoriously wrong after just a couple of days?

[WinterWxLuvr]