pazzo83 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Man that last SST map really shows it - the North Atlantic is on fire. Also, does it seem that the Gulf Stream might be weakening? It seems that a lot of the really anomalous warm waters aren't necessarily making their way across the Atlantic and are instead saying close to our shores 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 Gfs....progress halted...Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 37 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Man that last SST map really shows it - the North Atlantic is on fire. Also, does it seem that the Gulf Stream might be weakening? It seems that a lot of the really anomalous warm waters aren't necessarily making their way across the Atlantic and are instead saying close to our shores Gulf Stream is alive and well. If anything it is even displaced E based on historical configuration. The map posted prior that you are referencing are anomalies. Here are current sst for the N Atl and you can clearly see the Gulf Stream: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 14 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs....progress halted... Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Cutter after cutter after cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 34 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Let me ask you this (and my apologies if this has been discussed already): Is the SER a direct result of these SSTs...or is that driven by something else? Someone answered earlier it was a nina thing, but given how strong it's been I was wondering if those warm waters were a cause. I don’t think it is, but someone better versed with winter climo can answer that. I think generally because a niña tends to promote an amplified jet it leads to these periods of more intense blocking or troughing. 32 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Man that last SST map really shows it - the North Atlantic is on fire. Also, does it seem that the Gulf Stream might be weakening? It seems that a lot of the really anomalous warm waters aren't necessarily making their way across the Atlantic and are instead saying close to our shores I think it has seasonal variations but Ralph beat me to it. Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Gulf Stream is alive and well. If anything it is even displaced E based on historical configuration. The map posted prior that you are referencing are anomalies. Here are current sst for the N Atl and you can clearly see the Gulf Stream: Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Let me ask you this (and my apologies if this has been discussed already): Is the SER a direct result of these SSTs...or is that driven by something else? Someone answered earlier it was a nina thing, but given how strong it's been I was wondering if those warm waters were a cause. the persistent Ninas help keep the western Atlantic warm in the same way that the insanely persistent +PNA/-EPO in 2013-2015 baked SSTs off the WC. generally the overall pattern drives the SSTs, but I'm sure there's a bit of a feedback loop going on right now that would break once a Nino forces a persistent SE trough 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 7 hours ago, Chris78 said: Cutter after cutter after cutter. Story of winter Winter is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 WB latest GEFS extended continues to like the mid March period through at least the 17th. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 If that’s liking that period I would hate to see hating it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 At this juncture why post a bunch of maps just for the hell of it? If there is nothing to specifically analyze, just leave it. We all know what we are dealing with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Latest MJO forecast continues to go in a favorable direction into Phase 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 This might be a case where a strong -NAO building westward actually hurts us by helping to pinch off a TPV lobe, dropping it southward out west. With the SPV weakened, TPVs are going to be migrating into the midlatitudes. Might have a better outcome with a weaker/east based -NAO here. If the Aleutian ridge wasn't stuck there it wouldn't be an issue. That remains the fundamental feature that has killed winter for the east. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 This is why LR Op forecasts need to be taken with a grain of salt. If you look at the 0z 2/19 run and compare it with 6z 2/21, the differences between modeled snow and nada are subtle: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2023021900&fh=162 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2023022106&fh=108 One model had more of a return flow, I guess, with higher PWATs and I suppose a better thermal gradient. I'm not really sure, but at least for a setup that doesn't involve a well-defined mid-level vort, it's probably best not to get too excited over seeing blues this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Winter is over Literally. Meteorological Spring starts NEXT week. Not that Winter began in the first place.... Are there those still desiring on last gasp? Why at this point? Let this winter remain in the trash where it belongs. It is late Feb. Late Feb has not been rocking. Can the March thread start? And it only be about potential warm temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: No intent to derail the thread here. Feel free to move if not appropriate. 87storms, there are a couple of issues with this: 1) After a three year Niña, we’re almost certainly going to a Niño or at worst warm neutral ENSO for the coming hurricane season. Activity is a lot more complicated than strictly ENSO, but warm ENSO should dramatically reduce Atlantic tropical activity. 2) Even after historically active seasons in terms of absolute activity and tracks in the western Atlantic, it hasn’t done much to temper the anomalously warm SSTs in this part of the basin. You need a wholesale and persistent atmospheric change to reduce those anomalies. Thanks, I'm probably thinking too much in terms of a Hugo or Fran (which, by the way, I don't want), but not really sure if a strong hurricane just spinning off the SE coast for 2 weeks in October would even have an impact long enough to help. A large scale pattern change makes more sense. We really are paying for 2013-2016 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Latest MJO forecast continues to go in a favorable direction into Phase 8. Compare these to the maps that you were posting just last week. Do you not realize that these maps are notoriously wrong after just a couple of days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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