CAPE Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Those tricky Canadians. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 I see I listed the wrong thing….wishful thinking I see…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Rvarookie said: Oh no we can’t do that. Think we have been through enough You want to go right into 80s? I know we have warmed over the years but we’re not Florida. Not yet anyway. We need to right the ship and limp into the harbor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: I am probably one of the few who want a cool Spring. I don't want to see an effing 80 till June. Hold off the inevitable tropical weather as long as possible. Last Spring/early Summer was probably as good as it gets around here these days. @psuhoffmanRegarding tropical weather, maybe what we need is an active Atlantic hurricane season to stir up the SSTs in preparation for what could be a better ENSO/base state next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: This would really piss off some people here. We need that pile of crap reaction back. I’m ready for sustained 60s and 70s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS. Day 10-15 period is in line with the long range teleconnections being more favorable. We will see if this holds… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: This would really piss off some people here. April Fools storm 2023? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS. Day 10-15 period is in line with the long range teleconnections being more favorable. We will see if this holds… SER pancake'd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: SER pancake'd It's gonna take a stout west-based block like that for a fighting chance against the persistent awfulness out west. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's gonna take a stout west-based block like that for a fighting chance against the persistent awfulness out west. We all know how this is going to end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Southern MN looks like it's about to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS. Day 10-15 period is in line with the long range teleconnections being more favorable. We will see if this holds… Can we just package a p03 and p06 together and make everyone happy for once???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Can we just package a p03 and p06 together and make everyone happy for once????P23 and P29 would make most happy too. Let us get ONE banger to end the winter. Give us an areawide 8-12” storm to get most areas up to about 30-40% of climo and let’s move the fuck on from this shitshow of a winter. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2022-23 Winter in review -10 days out - SER - It’s gonna cut - We know how this is gonna end - Storm disappeared - Gotta get inside 5 days - PBP despair - No cold air - Well that sucked - I’ll take that and call it a winter - We suck - Avocados 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 18 minutes ago, Solution Man said: 2022-23 Winter in review -10 days out - SER - It’s gonna cut - We know how this is gonna end - Storm disappeared - Gotta get inside 5 days - PBP despair - No cold air - Well that sucked - I’ll take that and call it a winter - We suck - Avocados -Base State 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, Interstate said: -Base State -What could go wrong - Don’t say those two words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 - Put this winter out of its misery- Winter 2023-24 will be rockin’ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 hours ago, 87storms said: @psuhoffmanRegarding tropical weather, maybe what we need is an active Atlantic hurricane season to stir up the SSTs in preparation for what could be a better ENSO/base state next season. No intent to derail the thread here. Feel free to move if not appropriate. 87storms, there are a couple of issues with this: 1) After a three year Niña, we’re almost certainly going to a Niño or at worst warm neutral ENSO for the coming hurricane season. Activity is a lot more complicated than strictly ENSO, but warm ENSO should dramatically reduce Atlantic tropical activity. 2) Even after historically active seasons in terms of absolute activity and tracks in the western Atlantic, it hasn’t done much to temper the anomalously warm SSTs in this part of the basin. You need a wholesale and persistent atmospheric change to reduce those anomalies. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 59 minutes ago, Solution Man said: 2022-23 Winter in review -10 days out - SER - It’s gonna cut - We know how this is gonna end - Storm disappeared - Gotta get inside 5 days - PBP despair - No cold air - Well that sucked - I’ll take that and call it a winter - We suck - Avocados I'd like a copyright on that last one--let that be my valuable contribution for this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: No intent to derail the thread here. Feel free to move if not appropriate. 87storms, there are a couple of issues with this: 1) After a three year Niña, we’re almost certainly going to a Niño or at worst warm neutral ENSO for the coming hurricane season. Activity is a lot more complicated than strictly ENSO, but warm ENSO should dramatically reduce Atlantic tropical activity. 2) Even after historically active seasons in terms of absolute activity and tracks in the western Atlantic, it hasn’t done much to temper the anomalously warm SSTs in this part of the basin. You need a wholesale and persistent atmospheric change to reduce those anomalies. Let me ask you this (and my apologies if this has been discussed already): Is the SER a direct result of these SSTs...or is that driven by something else? Someone answered earlier it was a nina thing, but given how strong it's been I was wondering if those warm waters were a cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Man that last SST map really shows it - the North Atlantic is on fire. Also, does it seem that the Gulf Stream might be weakening? It seems that a lot of the really anomalous warm waters aren't necessarily making their way across the Atlantic and are instead saying close to our shores 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 Gfs....progress halted...Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 37 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Man that last SST map really shows it - the North Atlantic is on fire. Also, does it seem that the Gulf Stream might be weakening? It seems that a lot of the really anomalous warm waters aren't necessarily making their way across the Atlantic and are instead saying close to our shores Gulf Stream is alive and well. If anything it is even displaced E based on historical configuration. The map posted prior that you are referencing are anomalies. Here are current sst for the N Atl and you can clearly see the Gulf Stream: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 14 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs....progress halted... Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Cutter after cutter after cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 34 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Let me ask you this (and my apologies if this has been discussed already): Is the SER a direct result of these SSTs...or is that driven by something else? Someone answered earlier it was a nina thing, but given how strong it's been I was wondering if those warm waters were a cause. I don’t think it is, but someone better versed with winter climo can answer that. I think generally because a niña tends to promote an amplified jet it leads to these periods of more intense blocking or troughing. 32 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Man that last SST map really shows it - the North Atlantic is on fire. Also, does it seem that the Gulf Stream might be weakening? It seems that a lot of the really anomalous warm waters aren't necessarily making their way across the Atlantic and are instead saying close to our shores I think it has seasonal variations but Ralph beat me to it. Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Gulf Stream is alive and well. If anything it is even displaced E based on historical configuration. The map posted prior that you are referencing are anomalies. Here are current sst for the N Atl and you can clearly see the Gulf Stream: Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Let me ask you this (and my apologies if this has been discussed already): Is the SER a direct result of these SSTs...or is that driven by something else? Someone answered earlier it was a nina thing, but given how strong it's been I was wondering if those warm waters were a cause. the persistent Ninas help keep the western Atlantic warm in the same way that the insanely persistent +PNA/-EPO in 2013-2015 baked SSTs off the WC. generally the overall pattern drives the SSTs, but I'm sure there's a bit of a feedback loop going on right now that would break once a Nino forces a persistent SE trough 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 7 hours ago, Chris78 said: Cutter after cutter after cutter. Story of winter Winter is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 WB latest GEFS extended continues to like the mid March period through at least the 17th. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 If that’s liking that period I would hate to see hating it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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