Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread

[psuhoffman]

On 2/19/2023 at 9:20 AM, Daniel Boone said:

Sad thing is, the offset from strong blocking does work in January. Not so much so this time of year.  Northern area's still might work. We need at least a semblance of a +PNA imo.

During the last -PDO from 1945-1980 the pna was negative about 80% of the time. So long as we remain in a -pdo cycle, and the last one was 35 years, this is just how it’s going to be most of the time. 

On 2/19/2023 at 8:54 AM, 87storms said:

I’m pretty sure we want a +pna, but sounds like we might get enough blocking to offset it.

I’ve seen no evidence the last 8 years that blocking can offset a -pdo anymore.  At least not on a grand level. Could we luck into one snowstorm like March 2018, sure.  But even during extreme blocking most storms go well to our north lately. 

On 2/19/2023 at 10:21 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

if this goes up in smoke I'm going to put my degree in a paper shredder. retrograding blocks like this that come from strong Scandinavian highs usually work out

add in the fact that it's moving up in time and becoming stronger, as well as being associated with the SPV getting ripped apart, and I think the block is likely going to happen. I wouldn't worry about run to run minutiae when there is a west-based blocking signal this strong 

 Look what that period looks like now…

But isn’t this just a 2023 version of a similar pattern at the same time of year in 1962

Look at where the core of the anomalies are.  Isn’t this just that pattern adjusted for the warmer base state?  Even during many of the very snowy periods during our last -pdo the trough was out west and the ridge was in the east in the means.  It was just so cold it didn’t matter.  But what happens if we adjust that same exact longwave pattern for todays base state temps and the ridge wins now?  Would that 1962 pattern even lead to that huge early March mid Atlantic snowstorm or would it be further north now?  
 

And I am not saying it won’t snow at all coming up.  I think we could luck into something similar to 2018.  But even if we do, so what?  One snowstorm doesn’t change this larger issue.  This is why.    If we are in another -pdo era, which I think we are since we were long due for a pdo flip, and the pna is going to be negative almost all the time for the next 30 years…we know +NAO periods are going to be awful.  So we need the -NAO periods to be blockbusters with a lot of snow, not also these struggles where maybe we get lucky one time. 

 

5 hours ago, 87storms said:

Yea, I think the ratter part is also due to the jet stream being too far north and west as well. In colder years, we might still be battling the R/S line. That’ll be an interesting trend to watch the next few winters. In other news…speaking of jet stream, looks like a jet streak moving through tomorrow which could translate gusty winds to the surface (per LWX). This week’s weather definitely has late March vibes.

No one is saying it won’t ever snow.  It’s snowed over the last 8 years some.  But if bad years are this bad…and even the “good years” are now a struggle it’s not good  

@CAPE is right that we need to see what happens when we get a favorable enso.  But don’t assume that means the PNA issue goes away. During the last -pdo even during some ninos the pna was negative a large portion of the time.  

Look at an extremely snowy Nino month Jan 1966 for example.

The pna was still negative we just overcame it.  

I’m curious myself to see how much of this a Nino can offset. 

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12z EURO control at Day 11…

Lol,.you see that 55F reading just to our south?   Guarantee that's not where it's gonna be when the rubber meets the road.  

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

During the last -PDO from 1945-1980 the pna was negative about 80% of the time. So long as we remain in a -pdo cycle, and the last one was 35 years, this is just how it’s going to be most of the time. 

I’ve seen no evidence the last 8 years that blocking can offset a -pdo anymore.  At least not on a grand level. Could we luck into one snowstorm like March 2018, sure.  But even during extreme blocking most storms go well to our north lately. 

 Loom what that period looks like now…

But isn’t this just a 2023 version of a similar pattern at the same time of year in 1962

Look at where the core of the anomalies are.  Isn’t this just that pattern adjusted for the warmer base state?  Even during many of the very snowy periods during our last -pdo the trough was out west and the ridge was in the east in the means.  It was just so cold it didn’t matter.  But what happens if we adjust that same exact longwave pattern for todays base state temps and the ridge wins now?  Would that 1962 pattern even lead to that huge early March mid Atlantic snowstorm or would it be further north now?  
 

And I am now saying it won’t snow at all coming up.  I think we could luck into something similar to 2018.  But even if we do, so what?  One snowstorm doesn’t change this larger issue.  This is why.    If we are in another -pdo era, which I think we are since we were long due for a pdo flip, and the pna is going to be negative almost all the time for the next 30 years…we know +NAO periods are going to be awful.  So we need the -NAO periods to be blockbusters with a lot of snow, not also these struggles where maybe we get lucky one time. 

 

No one is saying it won’t ever snow.  It’s snowed over the last 8 years some.  But if bad years are this bad…and even the “good years” are now a struggle it’s not good  

@CAPE is right that we need to see what happens when we get a favorable enso.  But don’t assume that means the PNA issue goes away. During the last -pdo even during some ninos the pna was negative a large portion of the time.  

Look at an extremely snowy Nino month Jan 1966 for example.

The pna was still negative we just overcame it.  

I’m curious myself to see how much of this a Nino can offset. 

Seems like we need a decent to good pacific to score anything now. I never remember it being so important but the days of front end storms just don’t seem to happen anymore 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Seems like we need a decent to good pacific to score anything now. I never remember it being so important but the days of front end storms just don’t seem to happen anymore 

I get that, I see it too, the problem is during the last -pdo cycle we rarely ever had a favorable pacific. What we’ve seen the last 8 years was simply the base state almost all the time for 3 decades!  

[psuhoffman]

I took several days off and I see we’re still relying on day 11 control runs. Yup. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS 5 day anomaly is actually a slight improvement over yesterday 12Z.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

This is actually what has been so damned frustrating to me.  Though not like I or anyone else can do anything about it of course.  Guidance has consistently shown a developing and impressive -NAO blocking signal, however, we continue to have that ever-present SE ridge.  It.  Just.  Won't.  Go.  Away!  Won't even recede for enough time for something good to happen.  So you end up with that linkage between SER and -NAO and we're screwed.  Yeah, a few times the models depicted some push-back against the SER and hints that we might get some decent chance at a decent event.  But then that idea disappears and the storm goes off well to our northwest.  Nothing is cutting through that SER, it seems, and not much squashing it enough either.  There's always a possibility that could change, especially with shortening wavelengths as we get into March.  Hopefully something can punch it down enough before we're getting up to the edge of realistic snow climo range.

It's crazy to think we are still in snow climo. You would think it's mid April the way the winter has been and the recent tease of 70s. Only takes one tiny window over the next 4 weeks to remind ppl that nature can flip on a dime.

[CAPE]

27 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS 5 day anomaly is actually a slight improvement over yesterday 12Z.

That's a negligible difference dude lol. Esp this far out on a smoothed, course mean. It has been pretty steady for the last several cycles.

What's the problem with that overall look? Elephant..

[CAPE]

This would really piss off some people here.

[WesternFringe]

41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I took several days off and I see we’re still relying on day 11 control runs. Yup. 

The big storm is only 10 (or 11) days away!  This winter sucks.  Lol

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

This is actually what has been so damned frustrating to me.  Though not like I or anyone else can do anything about it of course.  Guidance has consistently shown a developing and impressive -NAO blocking signal, however, we continue to have that ever-present SE ridge.  It.  Just.  Won't.  Go.  Away!  Won't even recede for enough time for something good to happen.  So you end up with that linkage between SER and -NAO and we're screwed.  Yeah, a few times the models depicted some push-back against the SER and hints that we might get some decent chance at a decent event.  But then that idea disappears and the storm goes off well to our northwest.  Nothing is cutting through that SER, it seems, and not much squashing it enough either.  There's always a possibility that could change, especially with shortening wavelengths as we get into March.  Hopefully something can punch it down enough before we're getting up to the edge of realistic snow climo range.

Ohhh that SER...makes you wish somebody could get a huge atmospheric glove beat the daylights out of it, lol

Now, here's what I'm wondering: How much of what we've seen with the stout SER typical Nina climo, and how much is just something anomalous? And you have to wonder with our base...ya know...will wall-to-wall SER even in late Dec/January become more of a norm?

[CAPE]

I see @Cobalthas already posted it. My bad. Mine is a little funnier though. 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This would really piss off some people here.

With the number of times this has happened the last 8 years...you can argue persistence...you know it's coming 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

With the number of times this has happened the last 8 years...you can argue persistence...you know it's coming, lol

I am probably one of the few who want a cool Spring. I don't want to see an effing 80 till June. Hold off the inevitable tropical weather as long as possible. Last Spring/early Summer was probably as good as it gets around here these days.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I am probably one of the few who want a cool Spring. I don't want to see an effing 80 till June. Hold off the inevitable tropical weather as long as possible. Last Spring/early Summer was probably as good as it gets around here these days.

Personally I don't mind it TOO much--it's the atmospheric trolling (that is, getting a look then we couldn't get all winter) that is rather annoying, haha

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Personally I don't mind it that much--though the trolling (that is, getting a look then we couldn't get all winter) is rather annoying, haha

I wasn't looking at it like that, but yeah that would be rather frustrating.  A LR tool like that is probably wrong anyway. I'll  bet on the --PNA still being be around.. we will probably be in the 80s by early April.

[Weather Will]

Have to keep an eye on the Day 8 storm….there is enough cold air not that far away anymore….WB 18Z GFS compared to 0Z yesterday.

[CAPE]

The 28th is closer on the HH GFS. That window still has legs, as the blocking is getting established and NS vorts are flying around.

[BristowWx]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I am probably one of the few who want a cool Spring. I don't want to see an effing 80 till June. Hold off the inevitable tropical weather as long as possible. Last Spring/early Summer was probably as good as it gets around here these days.

I’m in as well.  Bring on upper 40s and rain in April

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The 28th is closer on the HH GFS. That window still has legs, as the blocking is getting established and NS vorts are flying around.

yea that blocking is better on this run so its more suppresed

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS today compared to yesterday…

[stormy]

The persistent 500 ridge over Cuba is the boss. Will it relax enough to allow the NAJS to settle south thru the MA during March?  Short and sweet in a capsule.

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

During the last -PDO from 1945-1980 the pna was negative about 80% of the time. So long as we remain in a -pdo cycle, and the last one was 35 years, this is just how it’s going to be most of the time. 

I’ve seen no evidence the last 8 years that blocking can offset a -pdo anymore.  At least not on a grand level. Could we luck into one snowstorm like March 2018, sure.  But even during extreme blocking most storms go well to our north lately. 

 Look what that period looks like now…

But isn’t this just a 2023 version of a similar pattern at the same time of year in 1962

Look at where the core of the anomalies are.  Isn’t this just that pattern adjusted for the warmer base state?  Even during many of the very snowy periods during our last -pdo the trough was out west and the ridge was in the east in the means.  It was just so cold it didn’t matter.  But what happens if we adjust that same exact longwave pattern for todays base state temps and the ridge wins now?  Would that 1962 pattern even lead to that huge early March mid Atlantic snowstorm or would it be further north now?  
 

And I am not saying it won’t snow at all coming up.  I think we could luck into something similar to 2018.  But even if we do, so what?  One snowstorm doesn’t change this larger issue.  This is why.    If we are in another -pdo era, which I think we are since we were long due for a pdo flip, and the pna is going to be negative almost all the time for the next 30 years…we know +NAO periods are going to be awful.  So we need the -NAO periods to be blockbusters with a lot of snow, not also these struggles where maybe we get lucky one time. 

 

No one is saying it won’t ever snow.  It’s snowed over the last 8 years some.  But if bad years are this bad…and even the “good years” are now a struggle it’s not good  

@CAPE is right that we need to see what happens when we get a favorable enso.  But don’t assume that means the PNA issue goes away. During the last -pdo even during some ninos the pna was negative a large portion of the time.  

Look at an extremely snowy Nino month Jan 1966 for example.

The pna was still negative we just overcame it.  

I’m curious myself to see how much of this a Nino can offset. 

The lower heights over the Aleutians is my guess as to what saved us? Brings the source air directly from the Arctic. You are far more educated about this stuff than I am. But that is just my guess. 

[SnowenOutThere]

28 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This would really piss off some people here.

With how that look would progress according to this winter I will count myself lucky if it’s not in the mid 80s by then. 

[Rvarookie]

12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I’m in as well.  Bring on upper 40s and rain in April

Oh no we can’t do that. Think we have been through enough 

[IronTy]

14 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS today compared to yesterday…

That snow map is definitely rocking.  

[CAPE]

HH GEFS is a bit more juiced up for this weekend with the weak wave moving east into the transient cold in place.

[WinterWxLuvr]

It’s happening 

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s happening 

yeah baby!

[Maestrobjwa]

25 minutes ago, IronTy said:

That snow map is definitely rocking.  

Rocking us to sleep perhaps