BristowWx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 13 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: That's because it never existed. It did for that moment in time. But we know better. These things don’t just turn around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Let’s hope it’s just a winter and not an era…we won’t know that for a while…but usually we luck into something…we haven’t even had a CAD event. That’s the most surprising thing about this winter, imo. I fully expected a predominant cutter track but did not expect cold air to instantly vanish as soon as a wave creeped east of the rockies. Every single time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 49 minutes ago, Terpeast said: That’s the most surprising thing about this winter, imo. I fully expected a predominant cutter track but did not expect cold air to instantly vanish as soon as a wave creeped east of the rockies. Every single time. We just have a great summer..starting this week apparently…and regroup in November. My trees are seriously starting to bud..been here 25 years…never seen that in Feb ever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We just have a great summer..starting this week apparently…and regroup in November. My trees are seriously starting to bud..been here 25 years…never seen that in Feb ever Let’s move on, nothing to see here this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 This seems about as likely as getting snow on February 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 This seems about as likely as getting snow on February 29th.It went south a bit lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 honestly i'm glad everything's trending warmer, i'm tired of wishing for a winter we're never gonna have. we'll have better luck next winter, it's been so nice out recently so i dont mind the torch 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Captain Obvious here; Well the retrograding block and any stratospheric help isn't supposed to occur until early March anyway. I'm not out until Brooklyn Wx quits showing those wonderful plots (better than snow maps - and I love those!) Given operational models have little if any skill beyond 7 to 7 1/2 days, it is not surprising that a day 9 mirage disappeared. The shock there was that both the GFS and ECMWF both showed it briefly. Besides my trusty weather app gives me a 40% chance of snow this upcoming Saturday with a high of 38. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Not a surprise but still: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Active STJ. watch my March 9-19 window 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 We'll get snow if it gets cold enough. March 9>> Anyone remember March 31/April 1, 1997? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 For the weekend- there is some weak vorticity moving along the boundary between the SE ridge and the colder air pressing in from the north. There will be a transient cold high to our north, so the possibility is there for at least some frozen. Biggest question is will there be enough forcing, and where. Right now it doesn't look like a big deal but there could be a little snow/mix in parts of our region. 0z GEFS members- 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 For the 28th, there is a signal for a storm, and the latest runs of the EPS and GEFS suggest an initial low tracking into the Ohio Valley and a secondary low developing off the MA coast. Among the members are a NW track, some with coastal redevelopment, while there are others with a low tracking west to east further south. The NAO is just transitioning to negative at this point and it looks like a significant piece of energy ejecting out of the western US trough. The tendency would be for a low to track to our NW, but with the HL pattern in a state of flux, there will be NS vortices flying around. Need a well timed one that flattens the flow ahead of the approaching low. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Gonna be a decent beach day Thursday. Euro says nearly 80 at the Delaware beaches. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 15 hours ago, Terpeast said: That’s the most surprising thing about this winter, imo. I fully expected a predominant cutter track but did not expect cold air to instantly vanish as soon as a wave creeped east of the rockies. Every single time. Here is your CAD event, its just 15 degrees warmer than needed! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 12 minutes ago, mdhokie said: Here is your CAD event, its just 15 degrees warmer than needed! That period isn't relevant. Colder air hasn't pressed southward yet. This is the timeframe where we could actually get some precip with colder air in place- 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Anything prior to the 25th has been dead for our region. Thermal boundary too far NW. No reasonable chance to get cold in our region with a deep western trough and no help up top. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Usually when CAD events get closer in time, it usually trends stronger and then overperforms. But that was in the previous… um… “era” when we actually had near normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 6Z GFS has surface temps below freezing here for a total of 18 hours in the entire run. In February. Unheard of. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 26 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Usually when CAD events get closer in time, it usually trends stronger and then overperforms. But that was in the previous… um… “era” when we actually had near normal temps. 1932? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, Yeoman said: 1932? Even in a colder era, there were a few ratters like this one. It’s just happening more frequently now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Even in a colder era, there were a few ratters like this one. It’s just happening more frequently now. Yea, I think the ratter part is also due to the jet stream being too far north and west as well. In colder years, we might still be battling the R/S line. That’ll be an interesting trend to watch the next few winters. In other news…speaking of jet stream, looks like a jet streak moving through tomorrow which could translate gusty winds to the surface (per LWX). This week’s weather definitely has late March vibes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Come on.. look at this pattern when/if the warm air breaks down. (as long as the epo is +, it's going to be rain. There is something called "snapping", where as our warm days busted warmer, conditions over Alaska trended colder in the upper atmosphere. After so much of that you sometimes get 5-10 days of -EPO or something. ) There is also that +EPO's last 7-13 days, and this one is going Feb 24-March 5 (10 days). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Volatile. -NAO trends stronger, Pacific ridge trends stronger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Volatile. -NAO trends stronger, Pacific ridge trends stronger. And look at that stout SER about to link up with the retrograding NAO. I'm afraid your March 8 period may be in trouble. I hope you nail it tho man. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 WB 12Z GEFS….two 1 in 30 chances one at the end of month and another at Day 12… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS….two 1 in 30 chances one at the end of month and another at Day 12… Spring time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 The temp drop from Thursday (near 80) to Saturday (32-36 depending on location) is pretty impressive. Too bad the timing isn’t right. As this winter has gone wall to wall. We rarely get cold and when we do, there’s no threat in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Just 10 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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