Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Active STJ. watch my March 9-19 window 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 We'll get snow if it gets cold enough. March 9>> Anyone remember March 31/April 1, 1997? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 For the weekend- there is some weak vorticity moving along the boundary between the SE ridge and the colder air pressing in from the north. There will be a transient cold high to our north, so the possibility is there for at least some frozen. Biggest question is will there be enough forcing, and where. Right now it doesn't look like a big deal but there could be a little snow/mix in parts of our region. 0z GEFS members- 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 For the 28th, there is a signal for a storm, and the latest runs of the EPS and GEFS suggest an initial low tracking into the Ohio Valley and a secondary low developing off the MA coast. Among the members are a NW track, some with coastal redevelopment, while there are others with a low tracking west to east further south. The NAO is just transitioning to negative at this point and it looks like a significant piece of energy ejecting out of the western US trough. The tendency would be for a low to track to our NW, but with the HL pattern in a state of flux, there will be NS vortices flying around. Need a well timed one that flattens the flow ahead of the approaching low. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Gonna be a decent beach day Thursday. Euro says nearly 80 at the Delaware beaches. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 15 hours ago, Terpeast said: That’s the most surprising thing about this winter, imo. I fully expected a predominant cutter track but did not expect cold air to instantly vanish as soon as a wave creeped east of the rockies. Every single time. Here is your CAD event, its just 15 degrees warmer than needed! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 12 minutes ago, mdhokie said: Here is your CAD event, its just 15 degrees warmer than needed! That period isn't relevant. Colder air hasn't pressed southward yet. This is the timeframe where we could actually get some precip with colder air in place- 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Anything prior to the 25th has been dead for our region. Thermal boundary too far NW. No reasonable chance to get cold in our region with a deep western trough and no help up top. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Usually when CAD events get closer in time, it usually trends stronger and then overperforms. But that was in the previous… um… “era” when we actually had near normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 6Z GFS has surface temps below freezing here for a total of 18 hours in the entire run. In February. Unheard of. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 26 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Usually when CAD events get closer in time, it usually trends stronger and then overperforms. But that was in the previous… um… “era” when we actually had near normal temps. 1932? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, Yeoman said: 1932? Even in a colder era, there were a few ratters like this one. It’s just happening more frequently now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Even in a colder era, there were a few ratters like this one. It’s just happening more frequently now. Yea, I think the ratter part is also due to the jet stream being too far north and west as well. In colder years, we might still be battling the R/S line. That’ll be an interesting trend to watch the next few winters. In other news…speaking of jet stream, looks like a jet streak moving through tomorrow which could translate gusty winds to the surface (per LWX). This week’s weather definitely has late March vibes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Come on.. look at this pattern when/if the warm air breaks down. (as long as the epo is +, it's going to be rain. There is something called "snapping", where as our warm days busted warmer, conditions over Alaska trended colder in the upper atmosphere. After so much of that you sometimes get 5-10 days of -EPO or something. ) There is also that +EPO's last 7-13 days, and this one is going Feb 24-March 5 (10 days). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Volatile. -NAO trends stronger, Pacific ridge trends stronger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Volatile. -NAO trends stronger, Pacific ridge trends stronger. And look at that stout SER about to link up with the retrograding NAO. I'm afraid your March 8 period may be in trouble. I hope you nail it tho man. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 WB 12Z GEFS….two 1 in 30 chances one at the end of month and another at Day 12… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS….two 1 in 30 chances one at the end of month and another at Day 12… Spring time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 The temp drop from Thursday (near 80) to Saturday (32-36 depending on location) is pretty impressive. Too bad the timing isn’t right. As this winter has gone wall to wall. We rarely get cold and when we do, there’s no threat in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Just 10 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 I've actually been watching these maps daily since the late 1990s, and I've never seen 6 different areas of shaded purple, at different times. (It almost does 7 and 8 over Alaska and western Russia) http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Man are we still waiting a couple more days for things to really start rocking? I got all this firewood just waiting for the TPV to blow over us after the SSW that's signaled laurentian v2. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 12 minutes ago, IronTy said: Man are we still waiting a couple more days for things to really start rocking? I got all this firewood just waiting for the TPV to blow over us after the SSW that's signaled laurentian v2. Hopefully it doesnt rot before you actually need it 6 or 7 years from now. With the models showing basically no cold air to speak of. You wont be needing it this year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: And look at that stout SER about to link up with the retrograding NAO. I'm afraid your March 8 period may be in trouble. I hope you nail it tho man. This is actually what has been so damned frustrating to me. Though not like I or anyone else can do anything about it of course. Guidance has consistently shown a developing and impressive -NAO blocking signal, however, we continue to have that ever-present SE ridge. It. Just. Won't. Go. Away! Won't even recede for enough time for something good to happen. So you end up with that linkage between SER and -NAO and we're screwed. Yeah, a few times the models depicted some push-back against the SER and hints that we might get some decent chance at a decent event. But then that idea disappears and the storm goes off well to our northwest. Nothing is cutting through that SER, it seems, and not much squashing it enough either. There's always a possibility that could change, especially with shortening wavelengths as we get into March. Hopefully something can punch it down enough before we're getting up to the edge of realistic snow climo range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Weeklies say happy spring.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Weeklies say happy spring.. I see a lot of frost and freeze advisories in our future. Unless there is precip then it’s 39 and rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Weeklies say happy spring.. Of course they do! Get ready for those 45-50 degree raw NE wind days into mid April... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 38 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Hopefully it doesnt rot before you actually need it 6 or 7 years from now. With the models showing basically no cold air to speak of. You wont be needing it this year. Maybe when the thermal haline circ finally shuts down and ushers in the next ice age....or at least a period of below normal temps. Termites will have probably had their way with it before then though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 37 cords here and still working on the pile! We do use it even in mild winters though. I've been leaning on it harder considering the milder temps mainly due to the price of heating oil. December was crazy. And yes this will (probably) be the year for dreaded cold air damming through the end of May! Have those tarps ready for the gardens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 WB 12z EURO control at Day 11… 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now