CAPE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Someone will pop on and say that is t a true block just a strong ridge which does us no good. By definition an atmospheric block involves both a high and low that are nearly stationary, thus forcing the flow to divert poleward/equatorward. I suppose the strictest definition would require a closed contour at h5 for both the High and the Low. For practical purposes, what we are seeing advertised currently on the means is a block. It could still morph into something else at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Just now, Ji said: you mean we just cant know yet....yet we all know lol We have a strong suspicion lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 37 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Thats some pretty serious cold dropping into the country on the long range GFS. -20's into MT and -30's across the border in early March? Hopefully it doesnt progress east. Why? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: We can hope that the GFS is out to lunch. If the Euro comes in with one or both storms still there then I'd consider it a win Doctor No time. Hit us with some winning pbp Randy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Doctor No time. Hit us with some winning pbp Randy! Euro lives up to its name for first event. No go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Euro lives up to its name for first event. No go Squashed and sheared I assume? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 And for the second one, it's a wrap folks. GFS-esque. Lights out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Squashed and sheared I assume? It develops a low offshore when the NS energy dives in and interacts with the vorticity ribbon stretched out overtop the ridge. Its a weird looking setup for us to get frozen from. SNE gets a little snow from it this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: And for the second one, it's a wrap folks. GFS-esque. Lights out we couldnt get the threat to survive 24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 This is why I hate solutions that involve a piece of energy ejecting through the ridge. It never works out. Haven't gotten any threats to survive inside day 6 this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 We need to see if the negative WPO is going to be real around March 5….if it does we should see some ridging out west and the cold should move SE. WB GEFS and GEPS. I don’t think that has happened all winter…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 21 minutes ago, Ji said: we couldnt get the threat to survive 24 hours. I can't believe I got suckered in again. No more. Fool me once..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 13 minutes ago, Amped said: This is why I hate solutions that involve a piece of energy ejecting through the ridge. It never works out. Haven't gotten any threats to survive inside day 6 this year. Called it out a few days ago. It seemed physically impossible. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 This winter is an embarrassment, I demand a refund. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 WB 12Z GEPS, don’t give up until mid March… 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: This winter is an embarrassment, I demand a refund. Let’s hope it’s just a winter and not an era…we won’t know that for a while…but usually we luck into something…we haven’t even had a CAD event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 February 28th is 9 days away. There is still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Not that many ever are, but this is just not our year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: we couldnt get the threat to survive 24 hours. That's because it never existed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 that storm on feb 11 that had a perfect track and gave us 1" of 36° and rain that way overperformed what was expected qpf-wise which could've been a region wide foot of snow made me give up on this winter lmao this winter has been such a tease 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 13 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: That's because it never existed. It did for that moment in time. But we know better. These things don’t just turn around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Let’s hope it’s just a winter and not an era…we won’t know that for a while…but usually we luck into something…we haven’t even had a CAD event. That’s the most surprising thing about this winter, imo. I fully expected a predominant cutter track but did not expect cold air to instantly vanish as soon as a wave creeped east of the rockies. Every single time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 49 minutes ago, Terpeast said: That’s the most surprising thing about this winter, imo. I fully expected a predominant cutter track but did not expect cold air to instantly vanish as soon as a wave creeped east of the rockies. Every single time. We just have a great summer..starting this week apparently…and regroup in November. My trees are seriously starting to bud..been here 25 years…never seen that in Feb ever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We just have a great summer..starting this week apparently…and regroup in November. My trees are seriously starting to bud..been here 25 years…never seen that in Feb ever Let’s move on, nothing to see here this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 This seems about as likely as getting snow on February 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 This seems about as likely as getting snow on February 29th.It went south a bit lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 honestly i'm glad everything's trending warmer, i'm tired of wishing for a winter we're never gonna have. we'll have better luck next winter, it's been so nice out recently so i dont mind the torch 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Captain Obvious here; Well the retrograding block and any stratospheric help isn't supposed to occur until early March anyway. I'm not out until Brooklyn Wx quits showing those wonderful plots (better than snow maps - and I love those!) Given operational models have little if any skill beyond 7 to 7 1/2 days, it is not surprising that a day 9 mirage disappeared. The shock there was that both the GFS and ECMWF both showed it briefly. Besides my trusty weather app gives me a 40% chance of snow this upcoming Saturday with a high of 38. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Not a surprise but still: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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