Chris78 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Cmc says don't give up completely for Saturday. Gets some light stuff into the Area on Saturday afternoon. Also has a mixed bag for the 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Gfs thinks they'll be a storm around for the 27th/28th but not sure where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Keeping the STJ active Usually in -NAO it dries up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 43 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Cmc says don't give up completely for Saturday. Gets some light stuff into the Area on Saturday afternoon. Also has a mixed bag for the 28th. We can hope that the GFS is out to lunch. If the Euro comes in with one or both storms still there then I'd consider it a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 The GFS shows the need for a west-based block or a very well-timed vort on the heels of a departing high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 12z GEFS for next weekend. There is no block yet so this is a timing deal to get some frozen with HP on the move. Looks minor at this point but something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Thats some pretty serious cold dropping into the country on the long range GFS. -20's into MT and -30's across the border in early March? Hopefully it doesnt progress east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: if this goes up in smoke I'm going to put my degree in a paper shredder. retrograding blocks like this that come from strong Scandinavian highs usually work out add in the fact that it's moving up in time and becoming stronger, as well as being associated with the SPV getting ripped apart, and I think the block is likely going to happen. I wouldn't worry about run to run minutiae when there is a west-based blocking signal this strong Someone will pop on and say that is t a true block just a strong ridge which does us no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 There is a signal for something on the GEFS around the 28th but a lot of spread among the members wrt track/timing/intensity/p-type. Still pretty far out there. EPS had a stronger signal at 0z for a wave to track just to the south of us. We just can know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: There is a signal for something on the GEFS around the 28th but a lot of spread among the members wrt track/timing/intensity/p-type. Still pretty far out there. EPS had a stronger signal at 0z for a wave to track just to the south of us. We just can know yet. you mean we just cant know yet....yet we all know lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Someone will pop on and say that is t a true block just a strong ridge which does us no good. By definition an atmospheric block involves both a high and low that are nearly stationary, thus forcing the flow to divert poleward/equatorward. I suppose the strictest definition would require a closed contour at h5 for both the High and the Low. For practical purposes, what we are seeing advertised currently on the means is a block. It could still morph into something else at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Just now, Ji said: you mean we just cant know yet....yet we all know lol We have a strong suspicion lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 37 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Thats some pretty serious cold dropping into the country on the long range GFS. -20's into MT and -30's across the border in early March? Hopefully it doesnt progress east. Why? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: We can hope that the GFS is out to lunch. If the Euro comes in with one or both storms still there then I'd consider it a win Doctor No time. Hit us with some winning pbp Randy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Doctor No time. Hit us with some winning pbp Randy! Euro lives up to its name for first event. No go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Euro lives up to its name for first event. No go Squashed and sheared I assume? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 And for the second one, it's a wrap folks. GFS-esque. Lights out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Squashed and sheared I assume? It develops a low offshore when the NS energy dives in and interacts with the vorticity ribbon stretched out overtop the ridge. Its a weird looking setup for us to get frozen from. SNE gets a little snow from it this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: And for the second one, it's a wrap folks. GFS-esque. Lights out we couldnt get the threat to survive 24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 This is why I hate solutions that involve a piece of energy ejecting through the ridge. It never works out. Haven't gotten any threats to survive inside day 6 this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 We need to see if the negative WPO is going to be real around March 5….if it does we should see some ridging out west and the cold should move SE. WB GEFS and GEPS. I don’t think that has happened all winter…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 21 minutes ago, Ji said: we couldnt get the threat to survive 24 hours. I can't believe I got suckered in again. No more. Fool me once..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 13 minutes ago, Amped said: This is why I hate solutions that involve a piece of energy ejecting through the ridge. It never works out. Haven't gotten any threats to survive inside day 6 this year. Called it out a few days ago. It seemed physically impossible. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 This winter is an embarrassment, I demand a refund. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 WB 12Z GEPS, don’t give up until mid March… 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: This winter is an embarrassment, I demand a refund. Let’s hope it’s just a winter and not an era…we won’t know that for a while…but usually we luck into something…we haven’t even had a CAD event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 February 28th is 9 days away. There is still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Not that many ever are, but this is just not our year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: we couldnt get the threat to survive 24 hours. That's because it never existed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 that storm on feb 11 that had a perfect track and gave us 1" of 36° and rain that way overperformed what was expected qpf-wise which could've been a region wide foot of snow made me give up on this winter lmao this winter has been such a tease 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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