Solution Man Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, dailylurker said: What happened to the old Ji? He would of s*it on every model run this entire hot turd winter lol He's been beat down like the rest of us. This winter softens the heart...especially Ji 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 18 minutes ago, 87storms said: I’m pretty sure we want a +pna, but sounds like we might get enough blocking to offset it. Sad thing is, the offset from strong blocking does work in January. Not so much so this time of year. Northern area's still might work. We need at least a semblance of a +PNA imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Believe it or not, there is a slight -pna correlation. what we need is neutral to positive anomalies over Alaska. Alaska When u talk positive their is a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Believe it or not, there is a slight -pna correlation. what we need is neutral to positive anomalies over Alaska. Alaska That's a bridge type setup, looks like. That might work . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Believe it or not, there is a slight -pna correlation. what we need is neutral to positive anomalies over Alaska. Alaska and believe it or not there is a slight +nao correlation to snow too. If you minus the rising-out-of-negNAO-snowstorms, the correlation is greater. Yea, we can’t have the mean trough as far west as it’s been. It just doesn’t work with the ridging in the south unless we get a well-timed hp/vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Will we have a guest appearance for happy hour @stormtracker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 8 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Will we have a guest appearance for happy hour @stormtracker? Meh. GFS already lost the storm. Euro has it but now….10 days away!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 The great pattern shifts have been 10 to 14 days away all winter….latest WB GFS extended teleconnections along with SPV and MJO give us the Hail Mary. We will see but the ensembles are just getting into the early part of this period so every 6 hour run does not mean much at this point. Snow means are bad the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Meh. GFS already lost the storm. Euro has it but now….10 days away!! Always 10 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 If I had to pick the period for our last snowfall chance based on WB GEFS extended it will be between the 10-17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: The great pattern shifts have been 10 to 14 days away all winter….latest GFS extended teleconnections along with SPV and MJO give us the Hail Mary. We will see but the ensembles are just getting into the early part of this period so every 6 hour run does not mean much at this point. Snow means are bad the next 2 weeks. HL NAM doesn't look good in the long range, plus the effects of the SSWE is still very much uncertain. Might take up to 25 days to deliver a SSWE snowfall event and even if we get a West based NAO block it does not gaurantee snowy outcomes at our lattitude. Persistance needs to be broken and so far the normal crummy caveats apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, frd said: HL NAM doesn't look good in the long range, plus the effects of the SSWE is still very much uncertain. Might take up to 25 days to deliver a SSWE snowfall event and even if we get a West based NAO block it does not gaurantee snowy outcomes at our lattitude. Persistance needs to be broken and so far the normal crummy caveats apply. if this goes up in smoke I'm going to put my degree in a paper shredder. retrograding blocks like this that come from strong Scandinavian highs usually work out add in the fact that it's moving up in time and becoming stronger, as well as being associated with the SPV getting ripped apart, and I think the block is likely going to happen. I wouldn't worry about run to run minutiae when there is a west-based blocking signal this strong 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, frd said: HL NAM doesn't look good in the long range, plus the effects of the SSWE is still very much uncertain. Might take up to 25 days to deliver a SSWE snowfall event and even if we get a West based NAO block it does not gaurantee snowy outcomes at our lattitude. Persistance needs to be broken and so far the normal crummy caveats apply. I'm not sure about all these 'timing rules' for tropospheric impacts associated with SSW events. Above my pay grade. My guess is it's a crapshoot like the rest of this stuff. So having said that, IF the longwave pattern currently being advertised on the means for early March verify(especially the EPS), we should have a chance or 2 before mid month when climo becomes really hostile for the lowlands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: if this goes up in smoke I'm going to put my degree in a paper shredder. retrograding blocks like this that come from strong Scandinavian highs usually work out add in the fact that it's moving up in time and becoming stronger, as well as being associated with the SPV getting ripped apart, and I think the block is likely going to happen. I wouldn't worry about run to run minutiae when there is a west-based blocking signal this strong We've been in this negative-NAO correlation/Pacific thing since 2013, and more so 2019. March 2018 was a west-based NAO block that came from SSW. I am afraid the strength of -NAO will only be mirrored by strength of +EPO/-PNA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: if this goes up in smoke I'm going to put my degree in a paper shredder. retrograding blocks like this that come from strong Scandinavian highs usually work out add in the fact that it's moving up in time and becoming stronger, as well as being associated with the SPV getting ripped apart, and I think the block is likely going to happen. I wouldn't worry about run to run minutiae when there is a west-based blocking signal this strong 1 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 We should probably focus on that first pre 10 day event. The 9-10 day things seems like another mirage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We should probably focus on that first pre 10 day event. The 9-10 day things seems like another mirage Nevermind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nevermind. Looks like there's no need to focus on the 28th either. According to the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Second event is now dead too. H5 low is heading to our north. We are bar none the best at failing per the GFS. Fucking trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Just now, Chris78 said: Looks like there's no need to focus on the 28th either. According to the gfs indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Cmc says don't give up completely for Saturday. Gets some light stuff into the Area on Saturday afternoon. Also has a mixed bag for the 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Gfs thinks they'll be a storm around for the 27th/28th but not sure where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Keeping the STJ active Usually in -NAO it dries up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 43 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Cmc says don't give up completely for Saturday. Gets some light stuff into the Area on Saturday afternoon. Also has a mixed bag for the 28th. We can hope that the GFS is out to lunch. If the Euro comes in with one or both storms still there then I'd consider it a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 The GFS shows the need for a west-based block or a very well-timed vort on the heels of a departing high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 12z GEFS for next weekend. There is no block yet so this is a timing deal to get some frozen with HP on the move. Looks minor at this point but something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Thats some pretty serious cold dropping into the country on the long range GFS. -20's into MT and -30's across the border in early March? Hopefully it doesnt progress east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: if this goes up in smoke I'm going to put my degree in a paper shredder. retrograding blocks like this that come from strong Scandinavian highs usually work out add in the fact that it's moving up in time and becoming stronger, as well as being associated with the SPV getting ripped apart, and I think the block is likely going to happen. I wouldn't worry about run to run minutiae when there is a west-based blocking signal this strong Someone will pop on and say that is t a true block just a strong ridge which does us no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 There is a signal for something on the GEFS around the 28th but a lot of spread among the members wrt track/timing/intensity/p-type. Still pretty far out there. EPS had a stronger signal at 0z for a wave to track just to the south of us. We just can know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: There is a signal for something on the GEFS around the 28th but a lot of spread among the members wrt track/timing/intensity/p-type. Still pretty far out there. EPS had a stronger signal at 0z for a wave to track just to the south of us. We just can know yet. you mean we just cant know yet....yet we all know lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now