CAPE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Maybe the SSW is having a favorable impact that will improve our prospects for once. Encouraging to see the depicted transition in the high latitudes on guidance. Once again we wait and see if it actually materializes in a meaningful way. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: Maybe the SSW is having a favorable impact that will improve our prospects for once. Encouraging to see the depicted transition in the high latitudes on guidance. Once again we wait and see if it actually materializes in a meaningful way. Actually, has it happened yet? Because in La Nina/+QBO, you usually don't get Stratosphere warmings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Actually, has it happened yet? Because in La Nina/+QBO, you usually don't get Stratosphere warming. Seems like something has been happening up there. Looks pretty uncomfortable for a polar vortex. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 The SPV experts say- its happening! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 How long does it last for? Oct 30-Nov15: 45-60 days to downwell Nov 15-Dec 15: 30-45 days to downwell Dec 15-Jan 15: 25-35 days to downwell Jan 15-Feb 15: 15-25 days to downwell Feb 15-Mar 15: ~15 days to downwell Mar 15-Apr1: ~10 days to downwell (Started 2-15): 15 days to downwell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Now we have a nice -NAO developing here in the LR on the ensembles Edit: kicks over to Greenland not as strong. Probably fitting to the March 9th-19 window I talked about. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 Now we have a nice -NAO developing here in the LR on the ensembles Edit: kicks over to Greenland not as strong. Probably fitting to the March 9th-19 window I talked about. Beautiful-pna too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 25 minutes ago, Ji said: Beautiful-pna too . What happened to the old Ji? He would of s*it on every model run this entire hot turd winter lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 What happened to the old Ji? He would of s*it on every model run this entire hot turd winter lolI’m pretty sure we want a +pna, but sounds like we might get enough blocking to offset it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 27 minutes ago, 87storms said: I’m pretty sure we want a +pna, but sounds like we might get enough blocking to offset it. Believe it or not, there is a slight -pna correlation. what we need is neutral to positive anomalies over Alaska. Alaska and believe it or not there is a slight +nao correlation to snow too. If you minus the rising-out-of-negNAO-snowstorms, the correlation is greater. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, dailylurker said: What happened to the old Ji? He would of s*it on every model run this entire hot turd winter lol He's been beat down like the rest of us. This winter softens the heart...especially Ji 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 18 minutes ago, 87storms said: I’m pretty sure we want a +pna, but sounds like we might get enough blocking to offset it. Sad thing is, the offset from strong blocking does work in January. Not so much so this time of year. Northern area's still might work. We need at least a semblance of a +PNA imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Believe it or not, there is a slight -pna correlation. what we need is neutral to positive anomalies over Alaska. Alaska When u talk positive their is a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Believe it or not, there is a slight -pna correlation. what we need is neutral to positive anomalies over Alaska. Alaska That's a bridge type setup, looks like. That might work . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Believe it or not, there is a slight -pna correlation. what we need is neutral to positive anomalies over Alaska. Alaska and believe it or not there is a slight +nao correlation to snow too. If you minus the rising-out-of-negNAO-snowstorms, the correlation is greater. Yea, we can’t have the mean trough as far west as it’s been. It just doesn’t work with the ridging in the south unless we get a well-timed hp/vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Will we have a guest appearance for happy hour @stormtracker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 8 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Will we have a guest appearance for happy hour @stormtracker? Meh. GFS already lost the storm. Euro has it but now….10 days away!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 The great pattern shifts have been 10 to 14 days away all winter….latest WB GFS extended teleconnections along with SPV and MJO give us the Hail Mary. We will see but the ensembles are just getting into the early part of this period so every 6 hour run does not mean much at this point. Snow means are bad the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Meh. GFS already lost the storm. Euro has it but now….10 days away!! Always 10 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 If I had to pick the period for our last snowfall chance based on WB GEFS extended it will be between the 10-17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: The great pattern shifts have been 10 to 14 days away all winter….latest GFS extended teleconnections along with SPV and MJO give us the Hail Mary. We will see but the ensembles are just getting into the early part of this period so every 6 hour run does not mean much at this point. Snow means are bad the next 2 weeks. HL NAM doesn't look good in the long range, plus the effects of the SSWE is still very much uncertain. Might take up to 25 days to deliver a SSWE snowfall event and even if we get a West based NAO block it does not gaurantee snowy outcomes at our lattitude. Persistance needs to be broken and so far the normal crummy caveats apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, frd said: HL NAM doesn't look good in the long range, plus the effects of the SSWE is still very much uncertain. Might take up to 25 days to deliver a SSWE snowfall event and even if we get a West based NAO block it does not gaurantee snowy outcomes at our lattitude. Persistance needs to be broken and so far the normal crummy caveats apply. if this goes up in smoke I'm going to put my degree in a paper shredder. retrograding blocks like this that come from strong Scandinavian highs usually work out add in the fact that it's moving up in time and becoming stronger, as well as being associated with the SPV getting ripped apart, and I think the block is likely going to happen. I wouldn't worry about run to run minutiae when there is a west-based blocking signal this strong 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, frd said: HL NAM doesn't look good in the long range, plus the effects of the SSWE is still very much uncertain. Might take up to 25 days to deliver a SSWE snowfall event and even if we get a West based NAO block it does not gaurantee snowy outcomes at our lattitude. Persistance needs to be broken and so far the normal crummy caveats apply. I'm not sure about all these 'timing rules' for tropospheric impacts associated with SSW events. Above my pay grade. My guess is it's a crapshoot like the rest of this stuff. So having said that, IF the longwave pattern currently being advertised on the means for early March verify(especially the EPS), we should have a chance or 2 before mid month when climo becomes really hostile for the lowlands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: if this goes up in smoke I'm going to put my degree in a paper shredder. retrograding blocks like this that come from strong Scandinavian highs usually work out add in the fact that it's moving up in time and becoming stronger, as well as being associated with the SPV getting ripped apart, and I think the block is likely going to happen. I wouldn't worry about run to run minutiae when there is a west-based blocking signal this strong We've been in this negative-NAO correlation/Pacific thing since 2013, and more so 2019. March 2018 was a west-based NAO block that came from SSW. I am afraid the strength of -NAO will only be mirrored by strength of +EPO/-PNA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: if this goes up in smoke I'm going to put my degree in a paper shredder. retrograding blocks like this that come from strong Scandinavian highs usually work out add in the fact that it's moving up in time and becoming stronger, as well as being associated with the SPV getting ripped apart, and I think the block is likely going to happen. I wouldn't worry about run to run minutiae when there is a west-based blocking signal this strong 1 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 We should probably focus on that first pre 10 day event. The 9-10 day things seems like another mirage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We should probably focus on that first pre 10 day event. The 9-10 day things seems like another mirage Nevermind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nevermind. Looks like there's no need to focus on the 28th either. According to the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Second event is now dead too. H5 low is heading to our north. We are bar none the best at failing per the GFS. Fucking trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Just now, Chris78 said: Looks like there's no need to focus on the 28th either. According to the gfs indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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