Chris78 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 16 minutes ago, Heisy said: Man, 12z GFs goes nuts with blocking this run . And still has cutters as far as the eye can see. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 17 minutes ago, Heisy said: Man, 12z GFs goes nuts with blocking this run . Meh Eta: if that idea holds, look out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 The problem is probably the western trough digging to Cancun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 +EPO is underestimated in the MR/LR. Models have it turning to +EPO while NAO is transitioning to negative. I contend there is still a strong -NAO/+EPO-PNA correlation in play, Not really any chance for snow in that imo. There is some potential that the Pacific could be changing state around March 9th, for one, because of the length of -PNA at that time, when it was strongly transitioning to El Nino in the subsurface back in January. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Meh Eta: if that idea holds, look out Looks like the mid latitude ridge is hooking up with the NAO block like it has several times this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Meh Eta: if that idea holds, look outYea would have to imagine you’d get at least one storm threat by mid March if that verifies. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 CWG is forecasting 76 for next Thursday... if that holds buds will be sprouting all over the MA. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Meh Eta: if that idea holds, look out For more cutters?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 51 minutes ago, Heisy said: Yea would have to imagine you’d get at least one storm threat by mid March if that verifies. I'm getting a signal +2 days from the 1st day of Spring, or Strong -NAO block until March 19th, lifting out for a snowstorm. This is something I've seen as the turn of a calendar event (month or season) as a mathematical anomaly, and now March 1st showing the big -NAO dive on current models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 46 minutes ago, RDM said: CWG is forecasting 76 for next Thursday... if that holds buds will be sprouting all over the MA. EPO looks to go positive Friday, so it may smooth out warmer days thereafter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I'm getting a signal +2 days from the 1st day of Spring, or Strong -NAO block until March 19th, lifting out for a snowstorm. This is something I've seen as the turn of a calendar event (month or season) as a mathematical anomaly, and now March 1st showing the big -NAO dive on current models. Base state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Base state? We seem to need a longer term pattern hold to change. This 7 years of -PNA after a Strong El Nino doesn't make a whole lot of sense, if you are looking at it purely from ENSO. 72-73: 3 years of -PNA. 82-83: 3 years of negative ENSO. 97-98: 3 years of -PNA. 15-16: 7 years of -PNA. We seems to have a greater connection with the upper atmosphere or sun. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 hour ago, RDM said: CWG is forecasting 76 for next Thursday... if that holds buds will be sprouting all over the MA. Hope its good buds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I'm getting a signal +2 days from the 1st day of Spring, or Strong -NAO block until March 19th, lifting out for a snowstorm. This is something I've seen as the turn of a calendar event (month or season) as a mathematical anomaly, and now March 1st showing the big -NAO dive on current models. The way you described this reminded me of that robot guy that used to put out strange forecasts with numbers and pretend he was a robot! That was some strange stuff. May have been back in Eastern wx days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 So Euro destroys (relative to this year) us between 222-240. Only 9 days away! 8-12 area wide. Even CAPE gets in on it with slightly less 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 14 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: Hope its good buds! We're talking strictly about spring flowers, right? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 WB 12Z EURO!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So Euro destroys (relative to this year) us between 222-240. Only 9 days away! 8-12 area wide. Even CAPE gets in on it with slightly less 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 That SV maps seems generous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 It's happening, or still too soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So Euro destroys (relative to this year) us between 222-240. Only 9 days away! 8-12 area wide. Even CAPE gets in on it with slightly less The one positive that's persistently showing up from like the 24th onwards is that monster 50/50 low that looks to have some staying power w/lower heights in that region. That area has had persistently AN heights for months now, so maybe signs of a change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Couple of discrete threats seem to be popping up. Probably going to want to start threads to avoid any confusion here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Couple of discrete threats seem to be popping up. Probably going to want to start threads to avoid any confusion here nah. base state. no more snow 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Ive been expecting a change for some time now in late Feb, or March. Is this it? That is the $64,000 dollar question. It is very nice to witness the GFS and ECM both looking at a same general opportunity timeframe 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That SV maps seems generous the euro has destroyed us about 3 times this winter in this time range. But somehow we have survived all this destruction 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 Just now, stormy said: Ive been expecting a change for some time now in late Feb, or March. Is this it? That is the $64,000 dollar question. It is very nice to witness the GFS and ECM both looking at a same general opportunity timeframe 10 days out. first time this winter i have seen all 3 of these models kind of agree on a snow for us at the 10 day range. Usually its just one of them...the other 2 dont agree and we get nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 24 minutes ago, Ji said: first time this winter i have seen all 3 of these models kind of agree on a snow for us at the 10 day range. Usually its just one of them...the other 2 dont agree and we get nothing Yet even still the 540 never makes it south. Just like all the others at least on Euro…and the GLL says hello yet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Couple of discrete threats seem to be popping up. Probably going to want to start threads to avoid any confusion here Have Randy start them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 26 minutes ago, Ji said: the euro has destroyed us about 3 times this winter in this time range. But somehow we have survived all this destruction Now we await the Euro ENS which, as always, will laugh at the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Just now, yoda said: Have Randy start them I'd start the thread 36 hours before the storm starts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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