Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: March 2001 You had to go there didn't you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 I’d take the 6z gfs in a hot minute 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’d take the 6z gfs in a hot minute I know @CAPE says it's not happening, but this setup is the only way we will score this year with the crud PAC and SER still in tact. Might not end up clean hits, but with the NAO forcing lower heights to squeeze underneath and waves rolling over the SER with tighter wavelengths in-between, I'm growing increasingly confident that one of these 3 or 4 systems being depicted will put down a blanket of white. Backloaded was always the way things would play out given the longwave pattern (Nina). Eta: First threat 6.5 days out. Probably rushed and might not be the one, but the signal is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know @CAPE says it's not happening, but this setup is the only way we will score this year with the crud PAC and SER still in tact. Might not end up clean hits, but with the NAO forcing lower heights to squeeze underneath and waves rolling over the SER with tighter wavelengths in-between, I'm growing increasingly confident that one of these 3 or 4 systems being depicted will put down a blanket of white. Backloaded was always the way things would play out given the longwave pattern (Nina). Eta: First threat 6.5 days out. Probably rushed and might not be the one, but the signal is there. Euro and GGEM are both north with the D7 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro and GGEM are both north with the D7 storm Again, I think the GFS is rushing the NAO and more likely we are turning the calendar page when we score. Ens means a few days later on the better looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 45 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Again, I think the GFS is rushing the NAO and more likely we are turning the calendar page when we score. Ens means a few days later on the better looks. There’s good reasons to think a stout -NAO will develop at some time with SSW downwelling support. Shorter wavelengths would help mute a hostile Pac longwave configuration, but until it happens, I won’t trust it given persistence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 51 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know @CAPE says it's not happening, but this setup is the only way we will score this year with the crud PAC and SER still in tact. Might not end up clean hits, but with the NAO forcing lower heights to squeeze underneath and waves rolling over the SER with tighter wavelengths in-between, I'm growing increasingly confident that one of these 3 or 4 systems being depicted will put down a blanket of white. Backloaded was always the way things would play out given the longwave pattern (Nina). Eta: First threat 6.5 days out. Probably rushed and might not be the one, but the signal is there. If you are talking about the 25-26th, there has been a weak signal for some frozen on the means. I have made a few posts about it. As for whether it happens or not, who knows. GFS op has been consistently hinting, but the GEFS and EPS suggest the better chance is further north(shocker), which is probably how it will go. CMC ens is a bit better for our region. It's highly uncertain how much cold will be available for that period, but has the general look of some sort of frozen front end favoring places inland at elevation for our region. Probably a better chance of something the first few days of March based on the depicted pattern progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: If you are talking about the 25-26th, there has been a weak signal for some frozen on the means. I have made a few posts about it. As for whether it happens or not, who knows. GFS op has been consistently hinting, but the GEFS and EPS suggest the better chance is further north(shocker), which is probably how it will go. CMC ens is a bit better for our region. It's highly uncertain how much cold will be available for that period, but has the general look of some sort of frozen front end favoring places inland at elevation for our region. Probably a better chance of something the first few days of March based on the depicted pattern progression. Thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: There’s good reasons to think a stout -NAO will develop at some time with SSW downwelling support. Shorter wavelengths would help mute a hostile Pac longwave configuration, but until it happens, I won’t trust it given persistence. I'm not super enthused despite seeing the -NAO on guidance. We will see if the shorter wavelengths help going forward, but that Aleutian ridge is just locked in and doesn't seem to want to nudge eastward even a little bit. We probably will need a monster west-based block for a time to get a few legit shots. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Has the aluetian ridge weakened in strength on ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: If you are talking about the 25-26th, there has been a weak signal for some frozen on the means. I have made a few posts about it. As for whether it happens or not, who knows. GFS op has been consistently hinting, but the GEFS and EPS suggest the better chance is further north(shocker), which is probably how it will go. CMC ens is a bit better for our region. It's highly uncertain how much cold will be available for that period, but has the general look of some sort of frozen front end favoring places inland at elevation for our region. Probably a better chance of something the first few days of March based on the depicted pattern progression. My thoughts are similar wrt the better opportunity a few days later. I mentioned this in a few posts earlier, the GFS is notorious for rushing things usually by 3-5 days. We'll have to see what happens with next weekend before jumping into the calendar flip period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 both weeklies and extended really look better come the first week of march into the end of march 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 -NAO will likely rule the pattern March 9-19, -PNA until March 9. There is a stronger precipitation correlation than temperature. Models now develop a +EPO Day 7>, so it may also be hard to get highs under 50° when the -NAO initially begins. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 lol, GFS. Whatever. Went from 70 to snow ETA: Just went back and looked at 6z, which was colder for that 200+ thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 5 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I’d take the 6z gfs in a hot minute The H is now an L at 12z. What a model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Hey, at least it's Day...9... lol, nice swath of heavy snow in N VA on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Maybe the MJO can come out of the null circle back to phase 7 and then swing out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 12z CMC has that next weekend storm that @CAPE has been mentioning a few times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 10 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z CMC has that next weekend storm that @CAPE has been mentioning a few times Yep. Cmc trended better / gfs went the wrong way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Man, 12z GFs goes nuts with blocking this run . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 16 minutes ago, Heisy said: Man, 12z GFs goes nuts with blocking this run . And still has cutters as far as the eye can see. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 17 minutes ago, Heisy said: Man, 12z GFs goes nuts with blocking this run . Meh Eta: if that idea holds, look out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 The problem is probably the western trough digging to Cancun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 +EPO is underestimated in the MR/LR. Models have it turning to +EPO while NAO is transitioning to negative. I contend there is still a strong -NAO/+EPO-PNA correlation in play, Not really any chance for snow in that imo. There is some potential that the Pacific could be changing state around March 9th, for one, because of the length of -PNA at that time, when it was strongly transitioning to El Nino in the subsurface back in January. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Meh Eta: if that idea holds, look out Looks like the mid latitude ridge is hooking up with the NAO block like it has several times this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Meh Eta: if that idea holds, look outYea would have to imagine you’d get at least one storm threat by mid March if that verifies. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 CWG is forecasting 76 for next Thursday... if that holds buds will be sprouting all over the MA. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Meh Eta: if that idea holds, look out For more cutters?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 51 minutes ago, Heisy said: Yea would have to imagine you’d get at least one storm threat by mid March if that verifies. I'm getting a signal +2 days from the 1st day of Spring, or Strong -NAO block until March 19th, lifting out for a snowstorm. This is something I've seen as the turn of a calendar event (month or season) as a mathematical anomaly, and now March 1st showing the big -NAO dive on current models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 46 minutes ago, RDM said: CWG is forecasting 76 for next Thursday... if that holds buds will be sprouting all over the MA. EPO looks to go positive Friday, so it may smooth out warmer days thereafter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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