CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, IronTy said: Late March rockin'? So.....45F and windy? Dont forget the driving rain. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Op runs and ensembles keep suggesting the 25th may offer a chance of at least some frozen.. and it is inside 10 days lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 @Ralph Wiggum We got guacamole here. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, IronTy said: Late February is really rocking so far. Cold frame lettuce seeds started to poke up from the soil as of this morning. While I'm not into gardening (though I may try it at some point), I wouldn't trust this climo. Man I can see a cold March snap-back damaging buds, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 3 hours ago, HighStakes said: Scranton's winter has looked a typical Charlotte winter lol. 3 hours ago, mattie g said: ScRaNtOn Is ThE nEw ChArLoTtE!1!1! Where the hell am I? SCRANTON!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: While I'm not into gardening (though I may try it at some point), I wouldn't trust this climo. Man I can see a cold March snap-back damaging buds, lol March 21, 2018 we got several inches of snow after some things started blooming. Here's snow on cherry blossoms from that event. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: March 21, 2018 we got several inches of snow after some things started blooming. Here's snow on cherry blossoms from that event. That's the exact example I was thinking of! The good ol' bud n' freeze we do so well...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: While I'm not into gardening (though I may try it at some point), I wouldn't trust this climo. Man I can see a cold March snap-back damaging buds, lol I'll take the under on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 25 minutes ago, CAPE said: Dont forget the driving rain. Pelting my face as I plant my snowpeas and kale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's the exact example I was thinking of! The good ol' bud n' freeze we do so well...lol On the flipside of that, March 2012 featured many 70-80+ degree days and cherry blossoms were in full bloom by St. Pat's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Never give up!!!! See what happens with a couple of waves if the SER relaxes enough for the cold air to move down the coast….WB 18Z GFS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Next shot after the 25th. Op run but seeing a general signal on the ensembles for the first couple days of March. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, Weather Will said: Never give up!!!! See what happens with a couple of waves if the SER relaxes enough for the cold air to move down the coast….WB 18Z GFS. lol you are so addicted to the damn snow maps. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Not all Ninas are complete ratters like this one. Can't wait till we get a nino that fails and we have to hear all about how ninos suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: lol you are so addicted to the damn snow maps. True, but I have been posting other kinds of maps too…. There are some some key differences within upcoming window, the strat. warm, some signs of a favorable MJO, and a negative NAO and WPO. If we get the PNA to get out of record low territory and a little luck we could get a crocus crushing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 One thing I do like about the setup inside D8 is the expected tight thermal gradient running west-east within our neck of the woods. The airmass that will prime the environment will be pretty solid and the globals this far out see the chance for winter precip is a positive, and they are likely not cold enough given the origin of the cold. The hope is to maintain a strong baroclinic zone within the confines of VA in order to capitalize on both the ascent from the shortwave and the cold layer through the boundary layer. We have scored with far worse. Not sure we'll be getting insane amounts of snow in the setup, but it could deliver an advisory level to perhaps low end warning if every chip fell into place. It's the best setup I've seen for the area in a while, so it'll be cool to track since I'll be back home around that time. I'm keeping my fingers crossed! 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: One thing I do like about the setup inside D8 is the expected tight thermal gradient running west-east within our neck of the woods. The airmass that will prime the environment will be pretty solid and the globals this far out see the chance for winter precip is a positive, and they are likely not cold enough given the origin of the cold. The hope is to maintain a strong baroclinic zone within the confines of VA in order to capitalize on both the ascent from the shortwave and the cold layer through the boundary layer. We have scored with far worse. Not sure we'll be getting insane amounts of snow in the setup, but it could deliver an advisory level to perhaps low end warning if every chip fell into place. It's the best setup I've seen for the area in a while, so it'll be cool to track since I'll be back home around that time. I'm keeping my fingers crossed! You do realize that if we get frozen while you're here, we can't let you leave, right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 19 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Never give up!!!! See what happens with a couple of waves if the SER relaxes enough for the cold air to move down the coast….WB 18Z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: True, but I have been posting other kinds of maps too…. There are some some key differences within upcoming window, the strat. warm, some signs of a favorable MJO, and a negative NAO and WPO. If we get the PNA to get out of record low territory and a little luck we could get a crocus crushing event. Just effin with ya. Not a big believer in the SSW impacts, but once in awhile it works out. Getting late though. The SPV will be naturally weakening anyway as we move through March, so I am skeptical this does much. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 42 minutes ago, CAPE said: @Ralph Wiggum We got guacamole here. Is it time for the "It's happening" jawn yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 17 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Can't wait till we get a nino that fails and we have to hear all about how ninos suck. Eventually we will just have to say the MA sucks because there will be nothing else to blame it on. Not sure we suck as bad as this year has been however. I’d like to step down to full suckage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: One thing I do like about the setup inside D8 is the expected tight thermal gradient running west-east within our neck of the woods. The airmass that will prime the environment will be pretty solid and the globals this far out see the chance for winter precip is a positive, and they are likely not cold enough given the origin of the cold. The hope is to maintain a strong baroclinic zone within the confines of VA in order to capitalize on both the ascent from the shortwave and the cold layer through the boundary layer. We have scored with far worse. Not sure we'll be getting insane amounts of snow in the setup, but it could deliver an advisory level to perhaps low end warning if every chip fell into place. It's the best setup I've seen for the area in a while, so it'll be cool to track since I'll be back home around that time. I'm keeping my fingers crossed! Most of us here would love a solid advisory to warning level event (doesn't have to be some prolific HECS!), and a couple of nice, wintry feeling days even in early March, at this point. I'd look at it like that event we got around March 14 or 15 last year. Warm leading in, but we got one cold, brisk, snowy day with advisory level snow which was pretty cool. Of course after a couple of days it was gone and we warmed up again, but it was fun! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Most of us here would love a solid advisory to warning level event (doesn't have to be some prolific HECS!), and a couple of nice, wintry feeling days even in early March, at this point. I'd look at it like that event we got around March 14 or 15 last year. Warm leading in, but we got one cold, brisk, snowy day with advisory level snow which was pretty cool. Of course after a couple of days it was gone and we warmed up again, but it was fun! I like quick hitters in the late winter time frame. I do get the itch by mid-March for warmer weather, so any shot of snow followed by warming up is always fine in my book! I'd love to come home and see some snow to make it feel like home in the winter! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 39 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Can't wait till we get a nino that fails and we have to hear all about how ninos suck. But the base state!!&6!!:$24&$!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is it time for the "It's happening" jawn yet? 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Many of the shutout years in the data set are followed by climo or climo+ seasons. I guess there are exceptions to everything but at this point I would think we are better off without any attempt at recovering this year. It does seem like the shutout years are at least as common as the blockbuster years and we’re clearly overdue for a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Battle of the atmospheric blocks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You have more energy and time than I do. I have a better base state. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: retrograding ridge is now showing up on the mean. nice to see again, most of the members with a SE ridge don't have the blocking at all or they keep it east-based and over Iceland. the vast majority of members with a legit central/west-based -NAO have the typical 50/50 response I’ve said all winter our best chance was likely March. The shorter wavelengths make it easier to offset the pacific pattern which just won’t quit. So I’m not gonna completely dismiss this. Im just not going into its happening mode until I see it inside day 7 and no SER on the means. We’re moving the right direction I’m just being reserved for now. But if we’re really lucky maybe we get another super late season block like March 2001 or 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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