LP08 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: So am I if I have to read the phrase “base state” one more GD time What STATE should we BASE our new climate? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 minute ago, LP08 said: What STATE should we BASE our new climate? Despair 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 29 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You are going to become inconsolable soon. because of all the snow, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: So am I if I have to read the phrase “base state” one more GD time Well then what would you like to call it? I mean I do get the annoyance because it conjures up "not gonna snow as much" vibes/fears, BUT...I am wondering if there's actually a way to quantify what that "state" actually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: So am I if I have to read the phrase “base state” one more GD time Discussions about the current base state can be frustrating. Especially since the pacific base state is about the worst base state you could imagine a base state to be. Almost any base state would be better than this base state. Base state discussion can also be redundant since the current base state has been the base state since 2016. But it’s hard to ignore the base state when the base state overlays what happens within the base state. I think we’ll just have to cope with hearing about the base state and debate about how the base state effects synoptic details within said base state and speculation when the base state might change to a better base state. Enjoy your base state. 1 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Radical look lol. (not base state) 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Discussions about the current base state can be frustrating. Especially since the pacific base state is about the worst base state you could imagine a base state to be. Almost any base state would be better than this base state. Base state discussion can also be redundant since the current base state has been the base state since 2016. But it’s hard to ignore the base state when the base state overlays what happens within the base state. I think we’ll just have to cope with hearing about the base state and debate about how the base state effects synoptic details within said base state and speculation when the base state might change to a better base state. Enjoy your base state. Sounds like a good name for a beer. BASE STATE IPA!! Or BASE STATE Stout! 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Haven’t checked in lately, has our snowstorm moved any closer from day 7+ yet since early Dec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 37 minutes ago, CAPE said: Radical look lol. (not base state) That would be one way to mitigate an Aleutian ridge. Lol ETA: you can see how the shorter wavelengths help there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 hour ago, LP08 said: What STATE should we BASE our new climate? North Carolina 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, 87storms said: North Carolina But what part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: But what part? Frederick is the new Asheville, Bmore is the new Raleigh, and Charlotte is the new DC... ...at least until the PDO trends positive. Sort of kidding, but not totally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said: Despair 13 minutes ago, 87storms said: North Carolina 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But what part? Coastal of course 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, 87storms said: Frederick is the new Asheville, Bmore is the new Raleigh, and Charlotte is the new DC... ...at least until the PDO trends positive. Sort of kidding, but not totally. i mean that's basically how this winter has played out. DC's winter has looked like a typical Charlotte, NC winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: i mean that's basically how this winter has played out. DC's winter has looked like a typical Charlotte, NC winter. Scranton's winter has looked a typical Charlotte winter lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 retrograding ridge is now showing up on the mean. nice to see again, most of the members with a SE ridge don't have the blocking at all or they keep it east-based and over Iceland. the vast majority of members with a legit central/west-based -NAO have the typical 50/50 response 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Scranton's winter has looked a typical Charlotte winter lol. ScRaNtOn Is ThE nEw ChArLoTtE!1!1! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: retrograding ridge is now showing up on the mean. nice to see again, most of the members with a SE ridge don't have the blocking at all or they keep it east-based and over Iceland. the vast majority of members with a legit central/west-based -NAO have the typical 50/50 response How well would those ideal heights at 500mb translate to the surface up to 850 given how mild it's been? Not sure if this is accurate analysis since I know the pattern can flip fairly quick, but it seems like we would need some time to get temps where we would need them at all levels, not just at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But what part? Blowing Rock 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Discussions about the current base state can be frustrating. Especially since the pacific base state is about the worst base state you could imagine a base state to be. Almost any base state would be better than this base state. Base state discussion can also be redundant since the current base state has been the base state since 2016. But it’s hard to ignore the base state when the base state overlays what happens within the base state. I think we’ll just have to cope with hearing about the base state and debate about how the base state effects synoptic details within said base state and speculation when the base state might change to a better base state. Enjoy your base state. You have more energy and time than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Not sure why we’d trust the ensembles past about day 7 because they’ve not exactly been stellar either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 25 minutes ago, CAPE said: Blowing Rock Snowing down here currently actually. In WNC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 hour ago, pazzo83 said: i mean that's basically how this winter has played out. DC's winter has looked like a typical Charlotte, NC winter. And New York City and Boston and Albany and Rochester... and just about any of city on the East Coast. This is not a Mid Atlantic thing... This is an East Coast thing. When the West usually get blasted we get screwed and vise versa. I am just using this post for a general purposes and not singling it out. Everyone on the east coast has suffered this year. We just whine about it better than any other region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: And New York City and Boston and Albany and Rochester... and just about any of city on the East Coast. This is not a Mid Atlantic thing... This is an East Coast thing. When the West usually get blasted we get screwed and vise versa. to me the most unnerving thing is that it's not like we've had shots of freak warmth (although we might get that next week). Sure, we've gotten to around 70, but it isn't THAT atypical for a given winter for it to happen once or twice. It's just been... mild - basically wall to wall. It hasn't felt like winter at all except for a few fleeting moments. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, pazzo83 said: to me the most unnerving thing is that it's not like we've had shots of freak warmth (although we might get that next week). Sure, we've gotten to around 70, but that isn't THAT atypical for a given winter for it to happen once or twice. It's just been... mild - basically wall to wall. It hasn't felt like winter at all except for a few fleeting moments. La Ninas will do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: La Ninas will do that. Not all Ninas are complete ratters like this one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not all Ninas are complete ratters like this one. yeah this feels fundamentally different in terms of the wholesale absence of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: yeah this feels fundamentally different in terms of the wholesale absence of winter The pattern was decent for much of December, but we were unlucky(plus climo). Since then the Aleutian ridge has been strong and stable, and in a very unfavorable position. That's pretty much the ball game. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not all Ninas are complete ratters like this one. Yeah this is bad even for nina standards. I mean I don't remember a nina that was practically wall-to-wall warm like this. In Feb, maybe (in fact just saw a fb memory of getting an inch or two a day after it was 70, lol)...but definitely not on the front end! This was kinda wonky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: The pattern was decent for much of December, but we were unlucky(plus climo). Since then the Aleutian ridge has been strong and stable, and in a very unfavorable position. That's pretty much the ball game. So now the question is is that (Aleutian ridge) just random bad luck, or is it....base? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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