psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, 87storms said: North Carolina But what part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: But what part? Frederick is the new Asheville, Bmore is the new Raleigh, and Charlotte is the new DC... ...at least until the PDO trends positive. Sort of kidding, but not totally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said: Despair 13 minutes ago, 87storms said: North Carolina 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But what part? Coastal of course 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, 87storms said: Frederick is the new Asheville, Bmore is the new Raleigh, and Charlotte is the new DC... ...at least until the PDO trends positive. Sort of kidding, but not totally. i mean that's basically how this winter has played out. DC's winter has looked like a typical Charlotte, NC winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: i mean that's basically how this winter has played out. DC's winter has looked like a typical Charlotte, NC winter. Scranton's winter has looked a typical Charlotte winter lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 retrograding ridge is now showing up on the mean. nice to see again, most of the members with a SE ridge don't have the blocking at all or they keep it east-based and over Iceland. the vast majority of members with a legit central/west-based -NAO have the typical 50/50 response 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Scranton's winter has looked a typical Charlotte winter lol. ScRaNtOn Is ThE nEw ChArLoTtE!1!1! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: retrograding ridge is now showing up on the mean. nice to see again, most of the members with a SE ridge don't have the blocking at all or they keep it east-based and over Iceland. the vast majority of members with a legit central/west-based -NAO have the typical 50/50 response How well would those ideal heights at 500mb translate to the surface up to 850 given how mild it's been? Not sure if this is accurate analysis since I know the pattern can flip fairly quick, but it seems like we would need some time to get temps where we would need them at all levels, not just at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But what part? Blowing Rock 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Discussions about the current base state can be frustrating. Especially since the pacific base state is about the worst base state you could imagine a base state to be. Almost any base state would be better than this base state. Base state discussion can also be redundant since the current base state has been the base state since 2016. But it’s hard to ignore the base state when the base state overlays what happens within the base state. I think we’ll just have to cope with hearing about the base state and debate about how the base state effects synoptic details within said base state and speculation when the base state might change to a better base state. Enjoy your base state. You have more energy and time than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Not sure why we’d trust the ensembles past about day 7 because they’ve not exactly been stellar either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 25 minutes ago, CAPE said: Blowing Rock Snowing down here currently actually. In WNC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 hour ago, pazzo83 said: i mean that's basically how this winter has played out. DC's winter has looked like a typical Charlotte, NC winter. And New York City and Boston and Albany and Rochester... and just about any of city on the East Coast. This is not a Mid Atlantic thing... This is an East Coast thing. When the West usually get blasted we get screwed and vise versa. I am just using this post for a general purposes and not singling it out. Everyone on the east coast has suffered this year. We just whine about it better than any other region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: And New York City and Boston and Albany and Rochester... and just about any of city on the East Coast. This is not a Mid Atlantic thing... This is an East Coast thing. When the West usually get blasted we get screwed and vise versa. to me the most unnerving thing is that it's not like we've had shots of freak warmth (although we might get that next week). Sure, we've gotten to around 70, but it isn't THAT atypical for a given winter for it to happen once or twice. It's just been... mild - basically wall to wall. It hasn't felt like winter at all except for a few fleeting moments. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, pazzo83 said: to me the most unnerving thing is that it's not like we've had shots of freak warmth (although we might get that next week). Sure, we've gotten to around 70, but that isn't THAT atypical for a given winter for it to happen once or twice. It's just been... mild - basically wall to wall. It hasn't felt like winter at all except for a few fleeting moments. La Ninas will do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: La Ninas will do that. Not all Ninas are complete ratters like this one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not all Ninas are complete ratters like this one. yeah this feels fundamentally different in terms of the wholesale absence of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: yeah this feels fundamentally different in terms of the wholesale absence of winter The pattern was decent for much of December, but we were unlucky(plus climo). Since then the Aleutian ridge has been strong and stable, and in a very unfavorable position. That's pretty much the ball game. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not all Ninas are complete ratters like this one. Yeah this is bad even for nina standards. I mean I don't remember a nina that was practically wall-to-wall warm like this. In Feb, maybe (in fact just saw a fb memory of getting an inch or two a day after it was 70, lol)...but definitely not on the front end! This was kinda wonky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: The pattern was decent for much of December, but we were unlucky(plus climo). Since then the Aleutian ridge has been strong and stable, and in a very unfavorable position. That's pretty much the ball game. So now the question is is that (Aleutian ridge) just random bad luck, or is it....base? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So now the question is is that (Aleutian ridge) just random bad luck, or is it....base? Lol That is a feature of a Nina, but the character/orientation can be different, and like last winter it can wax and wane and shift eastward/poleward at times. Probably Nina, PDO, and TNH pattern combining to screw us over this winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: That is a feature of a Nina, but the character/orientation can be different, and like last winter it can wax and wane and shift eastward/poleward at times. Probably Nina, PDO, and TNH pattern combining to screw us over this winter. Throw in the warm western Atlantic SST'S as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, Daniel Boone said: Throw in the warm western Atlantic SST'S as well. Hard to say what impact that might be having when we can't even get cold to stick around for more than a day. The persistent western trough/eastern ridge is a winter killer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 35 minutes ago, CAPE said: The pattern was decent for much of December, but we were unlucky(plus climo). Since then the Aleutian ridge has been strong and stable, and in a very unfavorable position. That's pretty much the ball game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 3 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: Despair I almost spit Coke Zero all over my computer 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 For a change, normal temperatures predicted for week 3-4 - help from MJO especially to our north with SSW a wildcard https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Realtime Multivariate MJO (RMM) index indicated slow eastward propagation during February, and though earlier forecasts showed a potential weakening of the MJO in late February, extended runs from the ECMWF model depict re-emergence of the signal into March (Phases 7 and 8), though ensemble spread is large. Influences from both La Niña and MJO were considered in the Week 3-4 Outlooks. A SSW recently began which can manifest at the surface as a negative AO, however the SSW does not yet have a clear impact on the troposphere and forecasts of the AO from the GEFS and ECMWF models remain positive with considerable spread. Evolution of the SSW remains uncertain and influence from the SSW is not strongly considered. Probability of below normal temperatures is depicted over New England as the majority of dynamical models indicate troughing and below normal temperature probabilities, but are slightly weakened due to the warmer CFS solution beneath forecasted Eastern U.S. ridging. Above normal temperature probabilities are indicated over much of the Southeast U.S. beneath favored 500 hPa ridging and where models have good consistency, though probabilities are damped on the northern edge given possible below normal temperatures related to the MJO as seen in the MLR tool. Equal Chances (EC) of above and below normal temperatures stretches across the middle of the CONUS from the Southwest to the Mid-Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 28 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I almost spit Coke Zero all over my computer Makes sense. No sugar. Swim trunk weather coming soon. If this AN pattern holds it should be in low 100s by April 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Late February is really rocking so far. Cold frame lettuce seeds started to poke up from the soil as of this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, IronTy said: Late February is really rocking so far. Cold frame lettuce seeds started to poke up from the soil as of this morning. A month off. Our Hail Mary (SSW) just occurred. Delayed but not denied. Mid to late March will really be rockin'. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: A month off. Our Hail Mary (SSW) just occurred. Delayed but not denied. Mid to late March will really be rockin'. Ok JB. Late March rockin'? So.....45F and windy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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