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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread


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1 hour ago, Its a Breeze said:

Was just looking at this earlier today. DCA has had one 100+ degree day in the past 9 summers. The longest "cool" stretch like that since the late 60s-early 70s. Only the second such stretch.

This has been brought up and discussed before. I believe the consensus is that the increasing humidity has been keeping our temps down in some of our recent torchy summer stretches.

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3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Those 3 are really just one- the persistently strong Aleutian ridge. Until that dies or shifts, the other 2 remain. We have seen plenty of evidence it cannot be mitigated by a transient -NAO or 50-50 lows. I don't see a legit sustained west-based block setting up anytime soon, and it is debatable if that would have the impact we need.

You’re right…they’re all part of the same feedback loop, but an Aleutian ridge alone can be mitigated.  We’ve snowed with one before. Recently even. But when I see all 3 on a mean imo it means those features are still dominant and locked in and likely to trend stronger. All those other factors working to suppress the SER, one will likely not be as robust and the result is the whole boundary shifts north again. 
 

If I see a pattern with an Aleutian ridge but the SER is actually totally gone on the means and the trough axis is in the east then I might entertain that perhaps we’ve got a chance to mitigate the pac pattern. 
 

Again you’re ultimately right but I wanted to clarify that seeing all 3 on the mean to me indicates the pac ridge is still driving the bus. 

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8 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Not that I want California to burn down, but I have appreciated the ridge west/trough east summers lately.  I’m not looking forward to the next time we have a summer 2010-2012 pattern.

i honestly don't think we're ready for it when that inevitably comes.

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9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB GFS MJO forecast continues to trend better for early March.  Latest compared to earlier this week.

9B5DEEEB-29AF-4710-A236-699835C975EB.png

E41E3F60-9B12-47DD-8BC3-2F1E81BA8B7C.png

Lets see if it translates to an improving h5 pattern. Oh look, a SE ridge about to link up with a -NAO!

We are stuck with the same general mild pattern with storms tracking west until that Aleutian ridge weakens. Some of the extended products get there, but might be too late for most of us. Always the chance we time something perfectly as the boundary briefly shifts southward heading into early March.

1677996000-251v5oqKWBo.png

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41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Lets see if it translates to an improving h5 pattern. Oh look, a SE ridge about to link up with a -NAO!

We are stuck with the same general mild pattern with storms tracking west until that Aleutian ridge weakens. Some of the extended products get there, but might be too late for most of us. Always the chance we time something perfectly as the boundary briefly shifts southward heading into early March.

1677996000-251v5oqKWBo.png

i’m not sure how “real” that SE ridge on the mean is. most of the members that do have a legit SE ridge have no blocking. I think it might be skewing things a bit

a few members link the block and the SE ridge, but most force a big 50/50 and/or a trough over the EC… basically the classic response to a west based block

FD37C316-8596-45BE-B9B1-BE2961C47A89.thumb.gif.80428efcb7bf3b88e34a2746b824a434.gif

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36 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

 

i’m not sure how “real” that SE ridge on the mean is. most of the members that do have a legit SE ridge have no blocking. I think it might be skewing things a bit

a few members link the block and the SE ridge, but most force a big 50/50 and/or a trough over the EC… basically the classic response to a west based block

FD37C316-8596-45BE-B9B1-BE2961C47A89.thumb.gif.80428efcb7bf3b88e34a2746b824a434.gif

Yeah we will have to see how the pattern progresses. Hopefully we get a relaxation of the Pacific Pig ridge in conjunction with a -NAO period, but the current pattern has been persistent since early Jan.

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40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

 

i’m not sure how “real” that SE ridge on the mean is. most of the members that do have a legit SE ridge have no blocking. I think it might be skewing things a bit

a few members link the block and the SE ridge, but most force a big 50/50 and/or a trough over the EC… basically the classic response to a west based block

FD37C316-8596-45BE-B9B1-BE2961C47A89.thumb.gif.80428efcb7bf3b88e34a2746b824a434.gif

I dunno man, I see 6 members there that have a -NAO linked to an eastern US ridge. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Some of the members that “look good” with a trough in the east had a linked NAO SER prior so the storm was just rain because there was warmth in front of it. So add in those 3 members then add in the handful that don’t develop blocking and it’s a majority that have a SER still. 

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Lets see if it translates to an improving h5 pattern. Oh look, a SE ridge about to link up with a -NAO!

We are stuck with the same general mild pattern with storms tracking west until that Aleutian ridge weakens. Some of the extended products get there, but might be too late for most of us. Always the chance we time something perfectly as the boundary briefly shifts southward heading into early March.

1677996000-251v5oqKWBo.png

That looks familiar. Pretty much how our last 5 -NAOs went.  But isn’t that just the 2023 version of this…

1421FD40-4177-407A-A42C-5E2141202D61.png.5063b5bff92ec2ff9629f58879770aea.png

That’s the h5 from some of our snowiest winters during the last -pdo cycle. But look at where the anomalies are centered…Aleutian high, lowest heights over western Canada and under the block in the Atlantic. The mean ridge position is over the east it’s just extremely muted.  But what happens if you simply adjust that look there to todays warmer base state???  Doesn’t it end up exactly what that h5 you posted is?  


 

  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That looks familiar. Pretty much how out last 5 -NAOs went.  But isn’t that just the 2023 version of this…

1421FD40-4177-407A-A42C-5E2141202D61.png.5063b5bff92ec2ff9629f58879770aea.png

That’s the h5 from some of our snowiest winters during the last -pdo cycle. But look at where the anomalies are centered…Aleutian high, lowest heights over western Canada and under the block in the Atlantic. The mean ridge position is over the east it’s just extremely muted.  But what happens if you simply adjust that look there to todays warmer base state???  Doesn’t it end up exactly what that h5 you posted is?  


 

  

It might. I think the current Nina/PDO/TNH combo is also just an unfavorable base state for our region- all probably exacerbated by that other thing.

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9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It might. I think the current Nina/PDO/TNH combo is also just an unfavorable base state for our region- all probably exacerbated by that other thing.

Ya I don’t know. Like you I’m very curious what happens with a better enso base state. I can see logical arguments for it going either way.  During the last -pdo Nina’s were pretty bad. We did have an awful stretch in the 50s which if you only adjust it slightly could have been that eras version of this. 
 

On the other hand we did have one Nino which everyone makes excuses “it never coupled” except during the last -pdo many ninos didn’t have exactly the same pac influence but we managed to snow anyways. And we did snow “more” in 2019 just not enough to offset the dreg surrounding it. Also we had a few snowy neutral winters during the last -pdo and so far both neutrals firing this -pdo have been god awful!  
 

There are valid arguments for each side here. And it will snow some either way. No one is saying that’s it snow is over. It’s snowed the last 8 years. Just not nearly as much as we are used too.  The question isn’t “will it snow in a more favorable base state”. It’s will it snow enough. When we do get a favorable enso we need that to be a 40” winter not something like 2019 again. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Ya I don’t know. Like you I’m very curious what happens with a better enso base state. I can see logical arguments for it going either way.  During the last -pdo Nina’s were pretty bad. We did have an awful stretch in the 50s which if you only adjust it slightly could have been that eras version of this. 
 

On the other hand we did have one Nino which everyone makes excuses “it never coupled” except during the last -pdo many ninos didn’t have exactly the same pac influence but we managed to snow anyways. And we did snow “more” in 2019 just not enough to offset the dreg surrounding it. Also we had a few snowy neutral winters during the last -pdo and so far both neutrals firing this -pdo have been god awful!  
 

There are valid arguments for each side here. And it will snow some either way. No one is saying that’s it snow is over. It’s snowed the last 8 years. Just not nearly as much as we are used too.  The question isn’t “will it snow in a more favorable base state”. It’s will it snow enough. When we do get a favorable enso we need that to be a 40” winter not something like 2019 again. 

I do think we lost the neutrals (at least those that come after a nina) in this new base state. 

But I don't think we've lost the ninos, at least not yet. We should know by this time next year, for better or worse.

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